North Carolina: Stein Posts Definitive Lead: A new North Carolina statewide poll that pits Donald Trump to a two point lead in the presidential contest also sees Attorney General Josh Stein pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open Governor’s contest.
Meredith College (4/11-17; 801 NC registered voters; 711 NC likely voters; online) went into the field to test the NC electorate, known for returning close statewide general election results, and found AG Stein leading the Lt. Governor by a 45-36% count. Though Mr. Stein has been leading in five of the seven polls released since the beginning of March, this result depicts his strongest lead. The end result is expected to be close. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. KS-2: More Individuals in the Candidate Mix: Potential Kansas congressional candidates continue to contemplate their political moves in response to last week’s surprise retirement announcement from two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka).
Republicans already expressing interest in announcing their candidacies are state House Majority Leader Chris Croft, Leavenworth County Attorney Todd Thompson, and state Senator Caryn Tyson (R-Parker). Former state Attorney General and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt acknowledges that his name is in the mix for the 2nd District but has not yet made a statement regarding intent. State Insurance Commissioner Vicky Schmidt is a possible candidate. Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla is mentioned as a potential Democratic contender. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1st. The real action is in the Republican primary as the seat will almost assuredly remain in the GOP column. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21, and Donald Trump carried the district 57-41% in the 2020 presidential campaign. WI-8: Rep. Gallagher (R) Resigns: After staying to vote on the foreign aid bills, Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) officially resigned his seat. His action reduces the total House count to 430, and the Republican majority to 217-213. Mr. Gallagher joins former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Ken Buck (R-CO) who also left the House prior to finishing the current term. Special elections to fill the balance of the terms will be held in all but Wisconsin. The New York district will be filled April 30th, CA-20 on May 21st, the OH-6 seat on June 11th, and Rep. Buck’s Colorado CD on June 25th. Each party is expected to hold the seats of their departing members. If so, when the special election cycles conclude, the Republicans will have 220 seats and the Democrats’ 214. Pennsylvania: Primary Tomorrow: The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for tomorrow, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees. Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R), are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.
We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races. Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pittsburgh) defends against local official Bhavini Patel in District 12. Republicans feature a competitive primary to challenge vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), as do Democrats opposite six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg). Republicans also look to mount strong challenges against Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall). Tomorrow, however, their candidates, businessman Rob Bresnahan and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), face no intraparty opposition. Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling: Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign, meaning executing polls in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the Presidency, Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough to defeat President Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.
All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16, and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Mr. Trump would lead President Biden 51-45% in Georgia, and 49-46% in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48% in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8% lead in Pennsylvania. The President, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9%. Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead: Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (4/15-17; 815 FL likely general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36% advantage.
Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (4/5-7; 1,014 FL adults; online) found the Senator’s lead at 36-26%, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (4/3-7; 608 FL likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38% ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor. KS-2: Open Seat #50: Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) yesterday surprisingly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
The Congressman, at 36 years of age, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, Mr. LaTurner had served as Kansas’ State Treasurer, and was twice elected to the state Senate. The LaTurner decision means there are 50 seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil: Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year. After his congressional defeat, Mr. Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another ten years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue. The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Mr. Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31st, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account. Michigan: Unusual Three-Way Polling Result: It has been a consistent pattern in recent weeks that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates have been routinely taking more support from President Biden than they do from Donald Trump. The latest Michigan poll reveals the opposite trend.
The Marketing Resource Group, a regular Wolverine State pollster, was in the field testing the presidential race. Their survey (4/8-11; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Trump leading President Biden 42-36% on a head-to-head ballot test question. When Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, the Trump margin shrinks to 37-34%, with Mr. Kennedy attracting 13%, and the remaining candidates taking an aggregate three more percentage points. When taking into account those who say they will vote for someone else, are undecided, or refused to answer the question, we see an additional 13% at this point falling away from the two major party candidates. Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates will be an important factor in the 2024 election. How they break come election day may well decide some, if not all, of the key swing states that will determine the ultimate final outcome. Arizona: A Flip Flop Poll: The Tyson Group conducted an April survey of the Arizona electorate (4/10-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters; online) and found a partisan flip flop result. While former President Trump captured a 39-33% lead over President Biden with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) drawing 12% support, the US Senate result was the mirror image.
In that race, now without incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (I), US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) scored a 39-34% preference vote over Republican Kari Lake. In this race, too, the lead minor party candidate, businesswoman Sarah Williams, draws a significant vote share (10%). While the poll is good news for former President Trump in a critical swing state that both sides will exert the maximum effort to win, it is bad news for GOP chances of expanding what could be a small Republican Seante majority in the next Congress. Wisconsin: Another Close Result for Sen. Baldwin: Marquette University tested the Badger State electorate as they do every quarter (4/3-10; 814 WI registered voters). While we see former President Trump leading 48-45% within the sample’s likely voters, his edge drops to 41-40% when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s 13% support is added to the ballot test result in addition to the five percentage points that Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West cumulatively attract. Therefore, like the recently released Michigan poll, we now see the Independent and minor party candidates beginning to take more from the Trump coalition than the commensurate Biden vote base. On the bad news front for the Democrats, the voter enthusiasm question cuts decisively against them. Only 66% of Democratic respondents said they were either very (43%) or somewhat (23%) enthusiastic about voting in November. This contrasts with 82% of the Republican respondents saying they are very (60%) or somewhat (22%) enthusiastic about casting their ballots in the general election. Overall, the 52-47% break for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the Senate race is good news for the GOP. After having trouble securing a candidate, businessman Eric Hovde (R) is already proving to be a close competitor. The numbers are even more encouraging for Hovde when we see that approximately 56% of the respondents express unfamiliarity with his candidacy. This compares with just under 11% who are unfamiliar with Sen. Baldwin. CA-16: Recount Ordered: The Silicon Valley anchored open 16th Congressional District is the site of an oddity in California’s top two jungle primary system. The official primary vote count produced a tie between the second and third place finishers, meaning three individuals will advance to the general election instead of just two. Fearing that again counting the votes could alter the outcome, neither tied candidate, San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) or Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), called for a recount.
Early this week, however, an individual placed a $12,000 deposit to begin the machine recount. Jonathan Padilla is a 2020 Joe Biden convention delegate, according to the Daily Kos Elections site, who used to work for former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D), the man who secured the first ballot qualifying position for the 16th District general election. The entire recount will cost an estimated $84,000, so it is unclear if Padilla will continue with the payments. If the recount does progress, however, it would not be surprising to see the final count change by a handful of votes, thus one of the two tied candidates could still be eliminated. |
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