Polling Margin of Error: Different PA & WI Ballot Tests: All polls contain a margin of error, and two sets of surveys in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races demonstrates the importance of the spread.
Both CBS News and Emerson College were in the field in both states at relatively the same point in time, but they arrived at significantly different results for the same races. CBS News (conducted by the YouGov polling firm; 4/19-25; 1,306 PA registered voters; online) found Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R), 46-42%. Beginning on 4/25, Emerson College also studied the Keystone State Senate race. Their data (4/25-29; 1,000 PA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Sen. Casey to a much larger 46-39% advantage. Using a margin of error figure of 3 percentage points, we see that these two polls do fall within the pre-stated specter. Yet, the difference between a four and seven point edge on the ballot test is substantial. We see a similar situation in the latest Wisconsin polling. During the same polling periods, again for both pollsters, we see similar divergent results yet within the polling margin of error. CBS/YouGov (4/19-25; 1,245 WI likely general election voters; online) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading businessman Eric Hovde (R) 48-41%, while Emerson (4/25-29; 1,000 WI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) again finds a closer race. Their result detects a Baldwin edge of only 46-43%. Again, a significant difference, yet within the polling margin of error spread. FL-1: McCarthy Ally to Challenge Rep. Gaetz: At last Friday’s candidate filing deadline, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) drew a Republican primary challenger who could enjoy outside support. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock (R) filed his candidacy just before time expired. Reports suggest that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will back Mr. Dimmock and raise substantial support money from loyal organizations who want to even the score for the former man’s political demise. Rep. Gaetz was the leader of the McCarthy ouster movement.
It remains to be seen how well Mr. Dimmock could perform in the August 20th Republican primary. In 2022, Rep. Gaetz easily turned back a well-funded Republican primary challenge from businessman Mark Lombardo who spent just under $800,000 for his campaign. The Congressman won renomination over Mr. Lombardo with a landslide 70-24% victory margin. Louisiana: Court Strikes Down New LA Congressional Map: Louisiana plaintiffs challenging the state’s new congressional map that created a second majority minority district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport received a favorable ruling yesterday from the three judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit. The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria in violation of the US Constitution. The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority minority seat designed to elect an African American Democrat. The Secretary of State informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15th to allow the election office to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow. NY-26: Tim Kennedy (D) Wins Special Election: As expected, state Senator Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory last night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Mr. Kennedy received 75% of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party’s candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report. The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties. Delaware: Gov. Carney to Run for Mayor: Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who is ineligible under the state’s election law from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for Mayor of Wilmington. Should Gov. Carney win the open municipal post – he’ll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) – he would become at least the third Governor to later become a Mayor.
Gov. Carney would join former Maryland Governor Ted McKeldin (R) who was elected the state’s chief executive in the 1950s and then return as Mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Gov. Jerry Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland after his first stint as Governor of California. He would then return to the Governorship and eventually serve 16 non-consecutive years as the state’s chief executive. MI-8: Flint Mayor Drops Congressional Bid: The open race to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) just got smaller. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) ended his congressional bid after filing for the seat. The Democratic establishment is coalescing around state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and this, in addition to poor fundraising totals, was relegating Mayor Neeley to the second tier of contenders.
Therefore, the Democratic field has winnowed to Sen. Rivet, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier. On the Republican side, two-time congressional nominee and former television anchor Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, retired Dow Corporation executive Mary Draves, and frequent candidate Anthony Hudson are competing for the nomination. The open 8th District is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+1, but President Biden carried the seat 50-48% while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In practice, however, the Democrats will carry at least a small edge heading into the 2024 general election. NY-26: Special Election Today: One of the House’s six vacancies will be filled today, and the projected outcome appears clear. New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) resigned the seat in February, and the local New York political parties chose state Sen. Brian Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the Democratic nominee while the GOP selected West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson. Sen. Kennedy is a heavy favorite tonight in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+18. Therefore, it is most probable that the House party division will move to 217R – 213D after the votes are counted this evening with five vacancies (4R -1D) remaining. The 26th District is comprised of the Buffalo metropolitan area and includes parts of Erie and Niagara Counties. TX-34: Close Texas Rematch: In 2022, due to the Texas redistricting map, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) were forced to run against each other in the new Brownsville-McAllen anchored 34th District. In November of that year, Rep. Gonzalez scored a 53-44% victory in the new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+17. With the political climate changing on the Texas-Mexico border, this district will become more competitive during this election cycle. A new 1892 polling organization survey (4/11-13; 400 TX-34 likely general election voters; live interview) confirms the final result is likely to be closer in 2024. The Gonzalez-Flores ballot test only breaks 48-45% in Democrat’s favor, suggesting the campaign could evolve into a toss-up. On the presidential front, the 1892 pollsters did not ask a direct ballot question. Rather, they phrased a similar query testing which candidate’s border policies are viewed more favorably. The Trump policies were selected in a 51-36% margin. It appears this rematch contest will be one to watch in November. West Virginia: Polling Flip: The polling in the open West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary has been erratic for several months. After eight consecutive polls showed Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the race in a wide range between one and 19 percentage points, a new NMB Research survey (for West Virginia’s Future PAC; 4/20-24; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters) finds former Delegate Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), now assuming the lead.
The ballot test projects a 31-23% margin for the top two candidates with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), attracting a 14% preference factor, and Secretary of State Mac Warner right behind at 13% support. The West Virginia’s Future PAC is an organization supporting Mr. Capito. The poll comes on the heels of Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsing the former Delegate. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th. FL-8: Rep. Posey Withdraws: After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida US Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race. Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the Congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee. Since Florida does not extend candidate filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Mr. Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 30-year office holder. In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house.
Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies. For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy. Florida’s 8th District, that stretches from Titusville to Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+23. Former President Trump carried the district, 58-41%, in 2020. The Posey retirement means there are now 52 open seats headed into the next election, with 26 coming from the Democratic Conference versus the Republicans’ 25. One seat is newly created in Alabama. MT-2: Ex-Rep. Rehberg Trails in New Poll: Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (4/14-17; 400 MT-2 likely Republican primary voters). The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10%. Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for twelve years after serving six years as Lt. Governor, is being heavily outspent. Mr. Downing, through March 31st, had spent just over $630,000 compared to only $7,300 for Mr. Rehberg. The former Congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000. The winner of the June 4th primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat. Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment: After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox fell to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33% vote. To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40% of the delegate vote. While the Governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25th Republican primary.
In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, riding former President Trump’s endorsement that was announced just before the convention began, proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30% victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo). The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process. Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot. Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton. Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, did not receive 40% delegate support. Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition. In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40% threshold. Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation. In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork). Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence. The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25th. The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election. Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One: Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head to head pairings with President Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.
In the one-on-one polling series, Mr. Trump leads President Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to ten (North Carolina) percentage points. In only Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Mr. Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead in only Michigan (+3). This series represents Mr. Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow: Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and Governor.
In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40% of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district. Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40% delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow. In the Governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is the incumbent Governor, Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures. KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House: Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.
Mr. Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1st candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|