It appears that we are now getting daily survey research reports from the Florida Senate race. Yesterday’s installment comes from Florida Atlantic University (10/18-21; 740 FL likely voters). While other polls were beginning to find Sen. Bill Nelson (D) beginning to pull away, the most recent data again shows a pure toss-up. FAU is in the latter category. They see Gov. Rick Scott (R) returning to the lead, 42-41%, meaning we can again categorize this race as a “pick ‘em” campaign.
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) campaign released their latest internal data, which is different than any other published survey. The Fabrizio Lee firm, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (10/16-18; 600 WV likely voters), finds Mr. Morrisey leading Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 44-42%.
This is the first poll since May that finds Mr. Morrisey topping Sen. Manchin. During virtually the same period, Strategic Research Associates (10/12-19; 650 WV likely voters) finds Sen. Manchin ahead, 52-36%. While the Fabrizio data appears to be too favorable for Morrisey, the Strategic poll appears as an outlier on the other wing. In the last ten polls, Sen. Manchin has averaged 46.7% of the respondents’ preference, and topped 50% in only one of the surveys. From the aforementioned Florida Atlantic University survey (see Florida Senate above), Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), as has been the situation since the August 28th primary, again scores a polling lead. He is ahead of resigned US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R), 41-37%, which is consistent with the plethora of polls that have been conducted for this race.
It appears first term Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy (R) is serious about running for Governor. He stated yesterday that he will announce his decision about running statewide next year before December 1st. He also said that “it’s hard to stomach what’s happening in Louisiana right now,” which is a pretty good clue that he will enter the race. With a 2019 statewide election schedule, Sen. Kennedy will not have to risk his current position to run for Governor. He next stands for re-election in 2022.
Louisiana features a jungle primary format, meaning all candidates will appear together on the primary ballot. The top two primary finishers advance into the general election. The prevailing wisdom once state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) entered the special US Senate election was that a late November run-off would be necessary to determine who serves the balance of the current term. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) was appointed in March to replace Sen. Thad Cochran (R) when he resigned for health reasons.
A new NBC News/Marist College poll (10/13-18; 973 MS adults; 856 MS registered voters; 511 MS likely voters) finds Sen. Hyde-Smith leading former US Agriculture Secretary and Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy and Mr. McDaniel, 38-29-15%, respectively. If these margins hold, the appointed incumbent and Mr. Espy would advance to a November 27th run-off election. Marist asked an early run-off question and found Sen. Hyde-Smith leading Mr. Espy, 50-36%, if the two were to face each other in the post-Thanksgiving election. Monmouth University went into the field in Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s (R-Costa Mesa) Orange County district and, as they have been routinely doing, tested under a typical midterm turnout model, a participation factor that features a Democrat surge, and another that forecasts a below average turnout.
The poll (10/17-21; 372 CA-48 likely voters) projects a close race under all turnout scenarios. Under the typical midterm turnout model, Rep. Rohrabacher leads 50-48%. The edge swaps to opponent Harley Rouda (D) under the Democratic surge model, also in a 50-48% clip. Mr. Rohrabacher performs best if the turnout is low: up 52-46%. Obviously, this race is within the polling margin of error regardless of the projected voter number and is a top Democratic conversion opportunity. Though the Central Florida 15th District, anchored in the city of Lakeland, possesses a reliably Republican voting history, the open seat contest between state Rep. Ross Spano (R-Riverview) and attorney Kristen Carlson (D), is a developing close race. According to a just released Siena College/New York Times survey (10/16-19; 499 FL-15 likely voters from 23,795 original contacts) the two candidates tied at 43% apiece.
Remington Research also went into the field during this same sampling period (10/17-18; 1,369 FL-15 likely voters; automated) and found Mr. Spano clinging to a more comfortable 47-41% advantage. Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) is retiring after four terms. After spending over $50 million in combined money to decide the 2017 special election that Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell) ultimately won, things have been relatively quiet during the regular cycle. Now, however, we see the gun control organization Everytown for Gun Safety indicating they are spending over $1.8 million to support Democratic nominee Lucy McBath, a former organization spokesperson.
A new JMC Analytics survey (10/13-18; 500 GA-6 voters from a representative sample) finds Rep. Handel holding only a 49-45% advantage over Ms. McBath, suggesting that the large monetary infusion could have some effect. The 6th District is habitually Republican, so a McBath victory would be a major upset, but the numbers suggest such an outcome is at least an outside possibility. While the Indiana Senate race, commonly viewed as a toss-up, has seen little in the way of released public polling until just recently now finds another released survey in the public domain. The new Survey USA poll (10/12-16; 1,400 IN adults, 1,048 registered voters; 816 likely voters) finds Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) clinging only to a 41-40% slight edge over former state Representative and international businessman Mike Braun (R).
The other recent polls have projected the Senator to be in better standing, but clearly this contest is far from over with two weeks remaining. While the Midwest appears headed toward the Democrats, Indiana has consistently performed as a Republican stronghold. Therefore, this race remains too close to call. A new Minneapolis Star Tribune/Minnesota Public Radio poll (10/15-17; 800 MN likely voters) finds state Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Croix River Valley) closing the gap against appointed Senator Tina Smith (D). This survey finds the new Senator’s lead to be only 47-41%. To put the margin in perspective, the Star Tribune/MPR study also tested Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is also on the ballot. In her race, Sen. Klobuchar holds a commanding 56-33% advantage over state Rep. Jim Newberger (R-Becker). The Smith-Housley race continues to be one to watch.
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