Former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) is making a strong run at freshman Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman), raising over $3.2 million for her race and pulling close to the new Congressman in the polling. The University of Montana’s Big Sky Poll (see Montana Senate above) actually finds Ms. Williams ticking ahead of Rep. Gianforte, 45.8% to 45.3%, but from the same sample that appears to contain a Democratic skew. It is likely, however, that this race is closing and now must be added to the highly competitive realm.
Since October 1st, eight US House candidates added more than $1 million to their campaign coffers, thus extending the record setting fundraising pace that we have seen during the current election cycle.
House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) lead the group with $1.94 million raised. House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) is the other Republican in the group, bringing in an additional $1.14 million. The remainder are Democrats, featuring many familiar faces in 2018 fundraising circles: Andrew Janz, Rep. Nunes’ opponent ($1.03 million); challenger Katie Hill ($1.0 million) who is opposing Rep. Steve Knight (R-CA); Harley Rouda ($1.0 million) challenging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA); Amy McGrath ($1.11 million) who is running against Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr; Upstate New York candidate Antonio Delgado ($1.33 million) matching up against freshman Rep. John Faso; and Washington open seat candidate Kim Shrier ($1.6 million) who is opposing former state Senator and statewide candidate Dino Rossi (R) in the seat that retiring Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) currently represents. New Mexico former Governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson has made a difference in the Senate race in that the well-defined three-way format makes the race closer. Yet, first term incumbent Martin Heinrich (D) is still well positioned to win re-election.
Pacific Market Research conducted a poll for KRQE News 13 in Albuquerque (10/19-24; 400 NM likely voters) and finds Sen. Heinrich leading New Mexico Labor Commission member Mick Rich (R) and Mr. Johnson, 40-28-22%. When undecideds are projected, both Heinrich and Rich gain, but Johnson remains unchanged. The poll only surveyed 400 likely voters, which is a low number for a statewide study in a place with three congressional districts. Sen. Heinrich’s re-election victory is not in doubt, but there is a good chance he will win with only a plurality vote. The aforementioned Pacific Market Research media poll (see New Mexico Senate above) also tested the open Governor’s race. The results from this race appear consistent with other data we’ve seen here. PMR sees Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) leading Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), 48-39%.
Again, the sample size of 400 likely voters is low, meaning the error factor is higher. While certain data has shown a closer race, most of the polling gives Ms. Grisham a lead within this poll’s range. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Yesterday, we made the comment that Florida Senate polls are virtually being released on a daily basis, and such is the literally the case. The latest public survey comes from Gray Television/Strategic Research (10/16-23; 800 FL likely voters). This data gave Sen. Bill Nelson (D) another slight one-point lead, 46-45%, over Gov. Rick Scott (R). The Gray poll is another example of late data bringing this race back into the toss-up realm after several polls had projected three-term incumbent Nelson to be pulling away.
A new Public Policy Institute of California survey suggests that a politically weakened Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) will be re-elected in less than two weeks. According to the PPIC poll (10/12-21; 1,700 CA adults; 989 CA likely voters), Sen. Feinstein continues to lead state Sen. Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) by a 43-27% count.
The new survey shows virtually the same margin that was detected in September. Again, Sen. Feinstein is far away from 50%, but de Leon has no ability to catch her. Short on funding in one of the most expensive places to run, the former state Senate President will not make a credible closing run. If a strong opponent had entered the race, it is clear that Sen. Feinstein is weak enough where she could have easily fallen into a toss-up contest. The new EPIC/MRA poll for the Detroit Free Press and several television stations (10/18-23; 600 MI “active” voters) finds retired Army Ranger and manufacturing company owner John James (R) coming within single digits of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) for the first time. The poll results find the spread between the two candidates at 49-42% in the Senator’s favor. Though Mr. James may be making this campaign a bit tighter, it appears his upward move will be too little, too late.
Alaska Survey Research is reporting the first statewide polling figures since Independent Gov. Bill Walker ended his run for re-election and endorsed former US Senator Mark Begich (D). The ASR poll (10/19-22; 500 AK likely voters) gives former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) a 48-44% lead over ex-Sen. Begich. The only way that either Walker or Begich had of derailing Dunleavy was to coalesce behind one candidate. Now that such has happened, this race is expected to become even closer.
With only one previous poll finding resigned Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) taking the lead in the open Governor’s race before yesterday, two surveys found him to be topping Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D). The accompanying Gray Television/Strategic Research survey (see Florida Senate above) finds Mr. DeSantis holding a 48-45% lead. The 1892 polling organization (10/20-22; 2,500 FL registered voters; automated) sees DeSantis forging a one point, 47-46% edge. But, Gravis Marketing was also in the field (10/22-23; 773 FL likely voters) and comes to an opposite conclusion: Gillum up, 51-46%.
Looking at the same EPIC/MRA survey mentioned above (see Michigan Senate), we also see Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette closing his deficit against Democratic former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. In this poll, Ms. Whitmer’s advantage drops to 46-41%. But, the Anzalone Liszt Grove Democratic poll (10/15-21; 906 MI likely voters) finds the spread to be much greater, and more in line with previous polling. The ALG study returns Whitmer to a low double-digit advantage, 47-36%.
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