Monmouth University went into the field in Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s (R-Costa Mesa) Orange County district and, as they have been routinely doing, tested under a typical midterm turnout model, a participation factor that features a Democrat surge, and another that forecasts a below average turnout.
The poll (10/17-21; 372 CA-48 likely voters) projects a close race under all turnout scenarios. Under the typical midterm turnout model, Rep. Rohrabacher leads 50-48%. The edge swaps to opponent Harley Rouda (D) under the Democratic surge model, also in a 50-48% clip. Mr. Rohrabacher performs best if the turnout is low: up 52-46%. Obviously, this race is within the polling margin of error regardless of the projected voter number and is a top Democratic conversion opportunity.
The Rundown Blog
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