Two Democratic polling firms surveyed key presidential swing states over the same time period. Though they both see former Vice President Joe Biden leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, their margins, at least in two of the states, were leagues apart.
In Michigan, Redfield and Wilton Strategies (8/16-18; 812 MI likely voters) gave Mr. Biden a 12-point, 50-38%, lead while Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Elections Page (8/13-17; 631 MI registered voters), projected only a three point advantage for the now-official Democratic nominee, 49-46%. In Wisconsin, Redfield & Wilton (8/16-19; 672 WI likely voters) posted Biden to a ten-point lead, 49-39%, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 754 WI registered voters) yielded him only a six-point, 51-45%, edge. Turning to Pennsylvania, the two pollsters found an identical seven-point spread, however. Redfield & Wilton (8/16-17; 1,006 PA likely voters) saw a 48-41% Biden lead, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 617 PA likely voters) forecast a 51-44% margin. St. Anselm’s University, as part of their statewide poll (8/16-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; 475 GOP primary voters; online), tested the US Senate Republican primary. The results find businessman Corky Messner edging retired Army General Don Bolduc, 31-29%, a much different result than the Tarrance Group found for the Messner campaign in July. That poll (7/13-14; 401 NH likely Republican primary voters) gave Mr. Messner a 39-27% lead. The Republican primary winner faces Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November. The New Hampshire nomination vote is set for September 8th.
California Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) is leaving his congressional position to assume a seat on the San Bernardino Board of Supervisors, a post he won outright in the district-wide non-partisan primary election held in March. The 8th CD, that stretches from San Bernardino all the way up the eastern California border beyond Yosemite National Park and almost to Lake Tahoe, is one of the few Republican domains in the state. In the general election, state Assemblyman Jay Obernolte (R-Hesperia) faces Democrat Chris Bubser, an engineer and biotech consultant from Mammoth Lakes.
Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group just released an earlier survey of the Obernolte-Busber race (8/1-5; 400 CA-8 likely general election voters) and found the GOP Assemblyman holding a ten-point, 48-38% advantage. In 2016, President Trump carried the district, 55-40%. In his four congressional elections, Rep. Cook averaged 61.8% of the general election vote. The current election cycle has seen several instances of multiple pollsters surveying a consistent electorate during the same relative time frame and producing inconsistent results. Now, we see three individual polling entities, a Democratic and Republican firm along with a university, survey the Pennsylvania electorate from August 2-17 and all three found an almost identical presidential ballot test result.
OnMessage, the Republican firm (8/2-4; 400 PA likely voters), saw a 50-46% split in former Vice President Joe Biden’s favor. Democratic pollster Change Research (8/7-9; 456 PA likely voters) found a 48-44% Biden margin. The latest survey, from Muhlenberg College (8/11-17; 416 PA likely voters) called it 49-45% with Mr. Biden leading. Therefore, all three entities found a consistent four-point Biden lead. This is obviously good news for the Biden camp, but during the same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton posted leads of seven and eight percentage points only to see President Trump go onto win the state in the actual election. While the New Hampshire electorate is routinely polled during nomination season, as this state’s electorate is the first to cast their primary ballots, rarely do we see a general election poll from the small New England state. Manchester-based St. Anselm’s College, however, just released their new Granite State data (8/15-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; online) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding an eight-point lead over President Trump, 51-43%, in a state that was only decided by 2,736 votes in 2016.
Former Virginia Governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe opened a gubernatorial committee for the 2021 state election. Mr. McAuliffe served as Governor from 2013-2017. Virginia is the only state that limits its Governors to one four-year term; therefore, incumbent Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is ineligible to seek re-election. McAuliffe associates indicated that the former Governor has not fully decided to run again in 2021, but the filing of a campaign committee is a place holder in case he wants to enter the race. All accounts suggest that Mr. McAuliffe will become a candidate.
Other potential Democratic contenders are Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, Attorney General Mark Herring, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond), and state Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D-Woodbridge.) Referendums in Alaska and North Dakota have qualified for the general election ballot in which voters will decide if they want to change their nominating process from a traditional partisan primary into a unique four-way system. The idea is a hybrid between the top-two and Ranked Choice Voting procedures.
The proposal suggests all candidates be placed on the same primary ballot regardless of political party affiliation, as is the case in the top-two jungle primary format. Instead of two candidates advancing into the general election, four would. In the general, voters would then rank the four candidates from 1-4, with the general election winner obtaining the most first place votes. Minnesota has proven itself as the Democrats’ most loyal state in the presidential contest, last voting for a Republican, then-President Richard Nixon, in 1972. Every other state has gone Republican at least once during the 1972-present time span.
We are now seeing curious polling data coming from the state, but with a consistent trend. In late July, former Vice President Joe Biden was enjoying huge polling leads over President Trump. One survey, from Public Policy Polling (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters) posted Mr. Biden to a ten-point, 52-42%, advantage. Now, however, the Minnesota race is brandishing much different numbers. Just before the state’s August 11th primary election, Emerson College conducted a statewide survey (8/8-10; 733 MN likely general election voters) and found Mr. Biden’s lead dropping to only two points, 51-49%, in a poll where respondents were pushed to make a choice between the pair of candidates. Now, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election, finds the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Their most recent survey (8/15-18; 1,141 MN likely voters) sees the two men battling into a 47-47% tie. Since Hillary Clinton only won here in 2016 with a 1.5 percent margin, Minnesota is a state to watch as the presidential campaign hits its full stride. Democratic pollster Garin Hart Young Research released a Georgia US Senate survey (8/10-13; 601 GA likely voters) and found Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff holding a 48-46% edge over first-term Sen. David Perdue (R). Around the same time, another Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling (8/13-14; 530 GA voters) tested the Georgia electorate and found the candidates tied at 44% apiece. Just before that, media pollster Survey USA (8/6-8; 623 GA likely voters) went into the field and projected Sen. Perdue to be holding a three-point lead, 44-41%. It is evident from these different polls all conducted loosely within the same time frame, that the Georgia regular election Senate campaign is trending toward the toss-up realm.
Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) is retiring this year, and the polling for this now open Indianapolis suburban district is swinging like a yo-yo. In late June, the GBAO research group released a surprising survey that gave Democratic nominee Christina Hale, a former state Representative and the 2018 Lt. Governor nominee, a surprising six-point, 51-45%, lead over state Sen. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) in a traditionally Republican district.
Now, we see very different surveys entering the public domain. WPA Intelligence released their poll (8/4-6; 400 IN-5 likely voters) that reported a more traditional spread in this district when considering the electorate’s Republican voting history. The WPA result gave Sen. Spartz a 47-40% advantage. On its heels, however, Tulchin Research released their survey taken during a similar period (8/5-10; 400 IN-5 likely voters) that produced the exact opposite result: Hale leading 50-45%. Obviously, this open seat race will draw considerable attention in the closing weeks. |
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