As the Massachusetts Senate race draws to a close on Tuesday, three individual polling firms are reporting similar numbers with each finding Sen. Ed Markey (D) expanding his lead over Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton).
Data for Progress (8/24-25; 732 MA likely or possible Democratic primary voters) posts Sen. Markey to a 46-38% edge over Rep. Kennedy. Among the 16% who describe themselves as undecided, the respondents who provided feedback as to how they are leaning report breaking for Mr. Kennedy by a 30-28% margin. Merging the leans with the previous sample provides Sen. Markey an adjusted 50-43% advantage. Suffolk University (8/23-25; 500 MA likely Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Markey, with leaners to both candidates included, holding a similar 51-41% lead. Finally, the University of Massachusetts at Lowell (8/13-21; 800 MA likely Democratic primary voters) sees almost the same standing in the Democratic US Senate race. Their totals project Sen. Markey to a 52-40% margin. Yesterday, we reported that Oklahoma state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) scored a 53-47% win in Tuesday’s 5th Congressional District Republican runoff, thus officially beginning the general election opposite freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City), the first Democrat to hold this seat since 1974.
Before the runoff, but just released after Ms. Bice became the nominee, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (8/5-9; 500 OK-5 likely voters) gave Rep. Horn a 51-46% lead over Sen. Bice. Though the Republican state legislator trailed in this survey, it was taken before her victorious runoff campaign fully unfolded. The GQR data suggest the Horn-Bice November race is headed for the toss-up realm. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling released their latest of the Florida surveys (8/21-22; 671 FL voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-46%. Florida is a must-win state for President Trump, and polling has in the past predicted slight Democratic leads going into Election Day that resulted in close Republican wins for the most recent presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns.
In the last ten Florida polls conducted in this 2020 campaign from the July 17 – August 22 period, Mr. Biden’s average lead has dropped to 3.2 percentage points. In the previous ten surveys, conducted from June 8th through July 21st, the Biden lead averaged just under seven percentage points. Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places. Oklahoma state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) scored a 53-47% win in the 5th Congressional District Republican runoff last night, defeating former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese who placed first in the June 30th Republican primary. Ms. Bice now advances into the general election to face freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City), the first Democrat to represent this seat since 1974. This will be one of the top congressional races in the country and a must-win seat for Republicans if they are to have any chance of re-claiming the majority they lost in 2018.
The Oklahoma 5th District electorate that supported President Trump with a 13-point, 53-40%, margin in 2016 is now the third strongest Trump district in the country that a Democrat represents in the US House. Nebraska US Senate Democratic nominee Chris Janicek has been under intense pressure from Democratic leaders to leave the race after stories surfaced that he had sent sexually suggestive texts to several campaign staff members. So far, Mr. Janicek has refused to resign from the ticket. He can still do so until September 1st, giving the state Democratic Party an opportunity of replacing him.
Former one-term US Representative Brad Ashford, who was denied re-nomination for his House seat in a 2018 comeback attempt, says he will launch a write-in campaign for the Senate seat if Mr. Janicek refuses to leave the race. Seeing that Mr. Janicek has agreed to a major September 4th debate with Sen. Ben Sasse (R), it appears that the general election will continue with the two originally nominated candidates. Therefore, the most likely conclusion to this race suggests that an Ashford write-in candidacy will go nowhere, and Republican incumbent Sasse will be easily re-elected. Oklahoma City area voters cast their ballots today in the Republican runoff to choose a nominee to oppose freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City). This race is a must-win for the Republicans if they are to have any chance of making a run at the House majority because OK-5 is one of the most Republican districts that flipped to the Democrats in 2018.
Former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese was the first-place finisher in the June 30th Republican primary, placing eleven points ahead of state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City). Though Sen. Bice has led the fundraising battle by just over $200,000, the Club for Growth’s independent expenditure has more than equalized Ms. Neese’s financial deficit since the organization has spent almost $1 million in negative ads targeting the state legislator. Regardless of who wins tonight, this contest becomes a top tier Republican challenge race tomorrow morning. Since the middle of June, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator, has been leading the North Carolina Senate race polling. This, in a state that has defeated more incumbent Senators than any other in the modern political era. The new Morning Consult Tar Heel State survey (8/14-23; 1,541 NC likely voters; online through a pre-determined sampling universe) finds Mr. Cunningham leading Sen. Tillis, 47-39%.
The Morning Consult survey is the 24th poll taken of the NC race since mid-June, the last time that Sen. Tillis led in a poll. Among these 24, Mr. Cunningham led in 21 surveys from between three and 16 points. Three of the surveys found the two candidates tied. By contrast, in the last seven North Carolina polls, President Trump has led in four with one tie. Mr. Trump did trail, however, 46-49%, in this same Morning Consult survey. As the tough US Senate Democratic primary battle between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) draws to a close next Tuesday, the former man is going positive to begin the final week of campaigning. This is an indication that the Markey campaign’s internal polling confirms public polls that project the Senator with the lead. Among the dignitaries appearing in testimonials for the Senator is Massachusetts’ other Senator and former presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren. Her message states that “we need Ed Markey in the Senate now more than ever.”
The Texas runoff elections were held July 14th, and we now finally have an official winner in the state’s 23rd Congressional District. Coming through the Republican runoff election with just a 45-vote edge over his GOP opponent, Raul Reyes, retired Navy non-commissioned officer Tony Gonzales, nonetheless, declared victory. Mr. Reyes opted for a recount, and with approximately 80% of the ballots re-tabulated, the GOP candidate ended the procedure and conceded to Mr. Gonzales. The recount had made only a six-vote difference, allowing Mr. Reyes to slightly gain but not nearly enough to suggest he could close even this small deficit among the remaining votes.
Mr. Gonzales now challenges Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones, the 2018 nominee who held retiring Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) to just a 926-vote win. She was re-nominated all the way back on March 3rd, giving her almost a six-month time advantage in the general election. Though this is a west Texas swing district, Mr. Gonzales has a great deal to make up in terms of money and message delivery in a short amount of time. Still, the lone published poll for this race came from Public Opinion Strategies (8/6-9; 400 TX-23 likely voters via live interview) and the results gave Ms. Jones only a 41-40% edge despite her campaign advantages. |
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