Five-term Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/ Vancouver) defeated college professor Carolyn Long (D) by a 53-47% margin in a 2018 race that featured a combined $6.8 million being spent not including outside organization independent expenditures. A newly released RMG Research poll (7/29-8/4; 500 WA-3 registered voters) tested this year’s re-match, which appears to be the contest’s first published poll. RMG finds Rep. Beutler to be holding a four-point lead, 44-40%, over Ms. Long.
Freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Lakeland) last night lost his re-nomination battle to Republican Scott Franklin, a Lakeland City Commissioner and retired Navy pilot. The unofficial vote totals give Mr. Franklin a 51-49% victory margin. Rep. Spano is under investigation for accepting improper loans during his 2018 campaign. He becomes the eighth sitting House member to be denied re-nomination in this election cycle. Mr. Franklin advances into the general election as the favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Alan Cohn, a former television news anchorman. He topped state Rep. Adam Hattersley (D-Riverview) despite being outspent.
Former congressional aide Kat Cammack scored an upset win in the Republican primary and will replace retiring Reps. Ted Yoho (R-Gainesville), while state Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) looks to have won a close Republican primary and, assuming his 700+ vote holds through the final counting process, will succeed retiring two-term Rep. Francis Rooney (R-Naples). Both seats are safely Republican. The rest of the Florida primary resulted in wins for all of the favored House candidates. As expected, Anchorage surgeon Al Gross easily won the Alaska Democratic primary with 75% of the vote and advances into the general election to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in November. In the House race, at-large Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) will again face education reform activist Alyse Galvin (I/D). In 2018, the two battled to a 53-46% Young victory margin. Both were re-nominated last night with vote totals exceeding 77 percent.
The Wyoming primary also provided no surprises as former US Rep. Cynthia Lummis, armed with President Trump’s support, scored a 60% win for the open Republican US Senate nomination over nine opponents and advances into the general election where she becomes an overwhelming favorite to win in November.
At-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) was an easy 74% winner in her GOP primary contest. She, too, is a lock for another general election win in what will likely be President Trump’s strongest state. In another sign that the Arizona Senate race is beginning to close, Republican polling firm OnMessage (8/2-4; 400 AZ likely voters) projects appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) pulling into a tie with retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), as both recorded 48% preference in their latest study. This is the first poll since late June that did not yield an advantage for Mr. Kelly.
Being found in ethics violation over his previous campaign finance practices and using government funds to aide his re-election committee, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) now finds himself trailing new Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni, a physician who has previously run in the adjoining 8th District. A just-released Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey (8/6-12; 548 AZ-6 likely voters) finds Dr. Tipirneni leading the five-term Congressman by a 48-45% count. We can expect this to be a top tier national congressional race.
In a new WPA Intelligence survey (8/9-11; 500 MT likely voters), Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) has established a six-point lead in the at-large congressional contest against former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D), who was also the 2018 Democratic congressional nominee. The ballot test reveals Mr. Rosendale to be holding a 51-45% margin. This is the best poll the Republican has seen since soon after the state’s June 2nd primary.
After two polls were released last week that gave challenger Amy Kennedy (D) a slight lead over party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City), a new RMG Research survey (7/30-8/5; 500 NJ-2 registered voters) gives the Congressman a slight 42-39% advantage. This is another New Jersey race that will feature a close finish. The Garden State is a key indicator as to which party will assume House majority control in the next Congress.
Nomination elections are occurring today in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming. The Alaska federal elections are virtually set. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) will face a challenge from Independent/Democrat Al Gross, an Anchorage surgeon. In the House race, at-large Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) will officially find himself in a re-match with education reform activist Alyse Galvin (I/D). In 2018, Rep. Young was re-elected with a 53-46% victory margin.
In Florida, we see action in eight congressional districts including two Republican open seats that will nominate candidates certain to become prohibitive favorites to replace retiring Reps. Ted Yoho (R-Gainesville) and Francis Rooney (R-Naples). The open Wyoming Senate race will also be decided and former US Rep. Cynthia Lummis, armed with President Trump’s support, appears a lock to win both the Republican nomination tonight and the general election in November. Democratic US Senate nominee Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator, has been consistently leading in recent polling against first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R), and the new East Carolina University poll (8/12-13; 1,255 NC registered voters; 879 through Interactive Voice Response systems, and 376 from an online panel) continues the trend. The ECU numbers find Mr. Cunningham holding a 44-40% lead over Sen. Tillis, while the same sample finds President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden tied with 47% apiece in a state where winning is critically important the former man’s national prospects.
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