Beth Lindstrom (R), the former Massachusetts state Lottery Director, joined the growing field of Republican challengers hoping to compete against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) next year. The most prominent among the eight already running is state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R-Norwell). Due to the 2020 presidential overtones this race could feature, the eventual GOP nominee should be able to raise significant national money. The MA-Senate campaign could become a race to watch even though Sen. Warren is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
--Jim Ellis Gov. Bill Walker, the nation’s lone Independent state chief executive, has been expected to seek re-election next year, but whether he would again run as an Independent or switch to the Democrats, or even his former Republican Party, has been a matter of conjecture. Yesterday, the Governor announced that he and Democratic Lt. Gov. Byron Mallot would again run as a ticket under the Independent banner. The Alaska Democratic Party, however, is considering changing its by-laws to allow a non-Democrat to run on the party ticket. Therefore, it is conceivable that next year’s state party delegates could choose to draft the Walker-Mallot ticket as their de facto nominee slate.
--Jim Ellis With the special three-judge federal panel surprisingly not changing the 23rd District boundaries as part of their new redistricting lawsuit ruling, movement is now occurring in Democratic circles about who will oppose two-term Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) next year. Former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine), who has lost the last two consecutive races to Mr. Hurd, is considering running but now will have company in the Democratic primary should he do so. On Monday, former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings (D) announced his candidacy, and is viewed as a credible candidate who will bring resources to his political effort. Yesterday, defeated San Antonio City Council candidate and Bernie Sanders activist Rick Trevino also declared his congressional bid. Mr. Trevino failed to qualify for the 6th Council District run-off in early May by just 29 votes.
The political focus now turns upon Mr. Gallego and may force him to make a faster decision about whether he will again try to regain the seat he held between 2013-14. There is no question Rep. Hurd will be vulnerable in Texas’ lone swing congressional seat, a district that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. His two win percentages are 50 (2014) and 48% (2016). Before winning election to his single congressional term in 2012, Mr. Gallego served eleven terms in the Texas House of Representatives. --Jim Ellis GOP state Rep. Joe Schomacker (R-Luverne) announced early this week that he will not enter the open 1st District congressional race next year. This still leaves 2012 and ’14 party nominee Jim Hagedorn as the lone GOP contender. Democrats have seven candidates vying to replace Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) who is running for Governor. In 2016, Mr. Hagedorn held Rep. Walz to 50.3% of the vote, making it the second-closest House race in the United States. The 2018 open contest is currently viewed as a toss-up. The district, anchored in the city of Rochester, stretches the entire width of Minnesota’s southern border.
--Jim Ellis Confirming predictions that Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) would again reverse course about his 2018 political future and run for re-election, the Congressman officially announced yesterday that he is officially back in the race. Four Democrats had been running to succeed him when the seat appeared to be open, and at least one has already dropped out. State Sen. Dominick Moreno (D-Adams County) said immediately after the Perlmutter announcement that he would withdraw from the congressional race. State Sen. Andy Kerr (D-Jefferson County) and state Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Jefferson County) both said they wanted more time to consider their options, but it is believed both will also withdraw. Former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Dan Baer was less committal about deferring to Perlmutter.
--Jim Ellis Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) announced yesterday that he will not become a candidate in the open south Florida congressional district. Mr. Lopez-Cantera had been a US Senate candidate in 2016 until Sen. Marco Rubio (R) decided to run for re-election. Once Rubio reversed his retirement plans, Lopez-Cantera deferred and withdrew from the race. The 27th is open because veteran Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) is retiring after the current term. Democrats view this district at their best House conversion opportunity in the country.
--Jim Ellis Believing their chances for gaining more political strength in the Jayhawk State are improving, Democrats see yet another candidate coming forward to declare for the Governor’s race. State House Minority Leader Jim Ward (D) announced that he will join the Governor’s campaign. He faces former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and ex-state Agriculture Department Secretary Josh Svaty in the Democratic primary. A large number of Republicans are vying for the party nomination, including soon-to-be-Governor Jeff Colyer. All are battling to replace outgoing Governor Sam Brownback (R) who will resign upon confirmation for his recent federal appointment.
--Jim Ellis Frequent candidate and former Bogota (NJ) Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) in the Bergen County-anchored congressional district next year. The 5th had been in Republican hands since Franklin Roosevelt was first elected President, but was lost last year when incumbent Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Sussex County) fell to Mr. Gottheimer. It is likely the Republican leadership will continue their recruitment efforts for a stronger candidate.
--Jim Ellis JMC Analytics released the first post-special primary poll (8/17-19; 515 AL GOP likely run-off voters) and found former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) running far ahead of appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R). According to the data that seems to over-sample evangelicals (an element that definitely helps Moore), the former Judge is running away from the appointed Senator, 51-32%. The key to the poll, and the election from Moore’s perspective, is converting the preponderance of Rep. Mo Brooks’ (R-Huntsville) supporters. Mr. Brooks finished third with 20% of the vote. This poll suggests that the Congressman’s voters are headed heavily to Moore: 52-29%, from the Huntsville area, alone. We will soon see additional polling to either confirm or dispel this projected landslide margin.
--Jim Ellis Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter), who badly lost the 2016 US Senate race to incumbent Marco Rubio (R), had been considered as a possible candidate both for Governor or attempting to return to his former Atlantic Coast congressional seat. On Friday, Mr. Murphy confirmed that he will run for neither position next year.
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is the only current Democratic elected official in the open Governor’s race, and former one-term US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) has joined him. Businessman Chris King is also considered a serious Democratic contender. In Mr. Murphy’s former House seat, freshman Rep. Brian Mast (R-Palm City) converted the swing district in impressive fashion last November and appears a strong bet for re-election. And, with Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson actively seeking re-election, the 2018 political window was fast closing upon the former Congressman and statewide candidate giving him few viable options to launch a return to the political arena. --Jim Ellis |
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