State Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), the body’s Assistant Majority Leader, announced his congressional candidacy against two-term Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) in the sprawling 2nd Congressional District. Four other Democrats are already in the race, but Rep. Golden is clearly the strongest of the group. Mr. Poliquin won his seat in 2014, when incumbent Rep. Mike Michaud (D) vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor. The Republican incumbent has twice defeated former state Sen. Emily Cain (D). The 2nd District supported President Trump in November, thus awarding him one electoral vote from Maine. The Pine Tree State and Nebraska are the only two places that split their allotted electoral votes. This race could become competitive next year. Rep. Poliquin already has $1.16 million cash-on-hand after raising and spending just about $3.5 million to win 53-44% last year.
--Jim Ellis A new HighGround Public Affairs Consulting poll (8/18-19; 400 AZ registered voters; 273 self-identified Republican voters) finds Sen. Jeff Flake (R) languishing when paired with his announced Republican primary challenger and a potential general election opponent. The poll is skewed regarding the Republican primary vote because the sample size of 273 is too low for a state the size of Arizona. That being said, the ballot test finds Sen. Flake trailing former state Sen. Kelli Ward, 28-42%. If Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) were to become the Democratic Senate nominee, she would top the Senator, 40-32%, in a hypothetical general election ballot test. If Ward defeated Flake in the primary and then was paired against Rep. Sinema for the November election, the Democrat would have only a 32-31% edge.
--Jim Ellis Since Rep. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/ Lafayette) announced his Senate campaign, little movement has transpired for this safely Republican western Indiana congressional seat. Former gubernatorial aide Diego Morales is a likely candidate, and now Indiana Department of Workforce Development Steve Braun (R) announced he will leave his current post at the end of the month. His exit will assuredly be followed by a congressional candidate announcement. Mr. Braun is the brother of state Rep. Mike Braun (R-Jasper) who is also a US Senate candidate.
--Jim Ellis Three-term Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) announced his challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) at the end of March, and a highly competitive Democratic primary is building for the right to succeed the outgoing Congressman. Since the 16th is heavily Democratic and more than 79% Hispanic, the succeeding Democratic primary and run-off will determine the identity of the next congressional member from this El Paso anchored CD. El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar (D) is scheduled to make her congressional campaign announcement later in the week. Already in the Democratic race are El Paso School Board president Dori Fenenbock, who has already raised more than $350,000 for her campaign effort, along with attorney Enrique Garcia, and educator Nicole LeClaire.
--Jim Ellis Just days after Gov. Scott Walker (R) said he would make a formal decision about running for a third term in “a month or two,” he now confirms that he will run for re-election next year. Furthermore, Gov. Walker tweeted, that he would serve the entire term and not enter into a new presidential campaign.
--Jim Ellis Since Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) made the decision to enter the Senate special primary, only to fail to make the run-off, two serious 2018 Republican congressional challengers for the seat the Congressman was willing to eschew for the statewide office have come forward. During the Senate campaign, businessman Clayton Hinchman, an individual with strong ties to the Mitch McConnell political operation (a group that was actively opposing Brooks in the Senate race), announced his congressional candidacy. Yesterday, state Sen. Bill Holtzclaw (R-Madison) followed suit.
The new multi-candidate field, with each man having the ability to run a strong campaign, brings into play the possibility that none will attain majority status in the primary election, thus mandating a secondary run-off contest under Alabama election law. The 5th District is safely Republican, so the real battle here is for the GOP nomination. The June 5, 2018 primary along with a run-off to potentially follow twelve days later will be the factor determining which man advances to the general election and claims the seat. Because the 5th District electorate will be key in deciding the special US Senate run-off, a potential Brooks endorsement for one of the candidates will become a major development. --Jim Ellis Earlier in the week we reported on the JMC Analytics and Polling survey that projected challenger Roy Moore, the former state Supreme Court Chief Justice, leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange in landslide proportions for the September 26th special Republican run-off election. The JMC results found Judge Moore leading, 51-32%. Three days later, Opinion Savvy (8/22; 494 AL GOP run-off likely voters via landline and mobile telephone interviews) tested the Republican electorate and found virtually the same result. The OS tally finds Moore’s advantage to be an almost identical 50-32%. And, they also see the critical Huntsville area, home to third place finisher Rep. Mo Brooks (R), breaking heavily toward Moore in the same manner as JMC detected.
--Jim Ellis A new poll tells the same story for the Virginia Governor’s race. That is, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) maintains a discernible lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Roanoke College’s survey research department, which has turned in some of the worst polling performances during the past few cycles, this time seems consistent with other pollsters that have surveyed this 2017 statewide campaign. According to their latest polling effort (8/12-19; 599 VA residents), Northam’s advantage over Gillespie is 43-36%. The polling explanation claims that surveying residents adds an error factor of no more than plus/minus four percentage points on top of the 5% overall error factor. This leads to the conclusion that the sample selection methodology could account for their past poor record in surveying the political campaigns.
--Jim Ellis State Sen. David Osmek (R-Mound) this week became the fifth Minnesota Republican to enter the open Governor’s race. He joins 2014 gubernatorial nominee and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman, former Minnesota Republican Party chairman Keith Downey, and state Rep. Matt Dean (R-Dellwood) as announced candidates. Democrats feature six candidates, among them US Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) and St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman. Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton is retiring.
--Jim Ellis State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D), who last month opened a gubernatorial exploratory committee, is now formally announcing his challenge to Gov. Scott Walker (R). Mr. Evers was first elected to his statewide non-partisan position in 2009, re-elected in 2013, and again last April. He won his first election with 57%, increasing to 61% four years later, and scored a whopping 70% four months ago. Gov. Walker has yet to announce for a third term, but is expected to run. Mr. Evers is the eighth Democrat to declare for Governor. Also in the field are Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma), and state Assembly Representative Dana Wachs (D-Eau Claire).
--Jim Ellis |
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