While the nation’s lone Independent Governor, Alaska’s Bill Walker, has not yet formally declared his intention to seek re-election he is expected to soon do so. Questions still remain about whether he will again run as an Independent or ostensibly under the Democratic Party label. The state party is attempting to change their by-laws to allow a non-Democrat to run on the party ticket. Now, movement is beginning to occur on the Republican side.
Ben Stevens, the former Alaska State Senate President and son of the late Sen. Ted Stevens (R), is openly considering running for Governor next year. Mr. Stevens retired from elective politics in 2006 largely as part of the US Justice Department’s bribery case against his father, a trial verdict that was later overturned largely due to the law enforcement officials’ inappropriate actions that resulted in prosecutorial misconduct. Now, away from politics for more than ten years, Mr. Stevens may be on the verge of re-emerging and will be a serious gubernatorial contender should he decide to make the challenge. --Jim Ellis Last week, Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) announced that she would not seek a seventh term next year, meaning the north-central Massachusetts seat will be open and likely to host a competitive general election campaign. With that background, the first serious candidate is stepping forward. Daniel Koh (D), chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, announced that he is resigning his position and will soon officially declare his congressional bid for Ms. Tsongas’ open seat.
--Jim Ellis Santa Barbara area businessman Justin Fareed (R), who held freshman Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) to a 53-47% victory margin in their open seat campaign last November, announced late last week that he will return to the campaign trail for the 2018 election cycle. The 24th District, which includes all of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties with a small sliver of Ventura, is politically competitive but a seat where the Democratic candidate usually wins in a close election. Mr. Carbajal was a Santa Barbara County Supervisor before being elected to Congress. Veteran US Rep. Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara) held the seat in various configurations before her retirement prior to the last election.
--Jim Ellis Reports that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) will soon announce that she will seek a full term in office next year are apparently accurate. The first political domino to fall based upon the Governor’s plan coming forth directly relates to state Public Service Commission chair Twinkle Cavanaugh. Yesterday, Ms. Cavanaugh announced that her gubernatorial exploratory committee will close, and she will instead seek the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor.
The Lt. Governor position is open because Gov. Ivey, who then held the position, ascended to her current office upon Gov. Robert Bentley (R) resigning as part of a plea bargain agreement. Ms. Cavanaugh indicated that she “would rather work with Gov. Ivey than oppose her”, thus her change in electoral plans. It remains to be seen whether any of the other Republican gubernatorial hopefuls will change their plans once the Governor announces her campaign. Currently, there are eight Republicans who have declared for Governor, including two statewide officials and the Mayor of Huntsville. --Jim Ellis Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) yesterday ended speculation that she will run for Governor next year. Ms. Kelly made public her endorsement of state Sen. Daniel Biss (D) for Governor, thus clearly taking herself out of consideration for the statewide campaign. In addition to Sen. Biss, investment businessmen Chris Kennedy and J.B. Pritzker are the most prominent announced candidates. Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), viewed as vulnerable even though he will spend upwards of $100 million on his campaign, is seeking re-election.
--Jim Ellis Yesterday, veteran Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) ended retirement speculation and announced that she will seek a 14th House term next year. Ms. Johnson, 81 years of age, was originally elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 1972 and served two terms, leaving to accept a federal appointment from then-President Jimmy Carter. She returned to the legislature in 1987, winning a Texas Senate seat in the 1986 election.
As chair of the state Senate Redistricting Committee, Ms. Johnson was able to place one of the new seats Texas earned from national reapportionment in the Dallas area, a district that she was to claim for herself in the 1992 election. She has been in Congress ever since, and from time to time been challenged in the Democratic primary, but never seriously. She will again be a sure bet for re-election in 2018. --Jim Ellis Earlier this year, Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) declared his candidacy for Governor. Just weeks later, the official candidate called a special announcement event to make public his decision to withdraw from the race, citing his lack of “fire in the belly” to continue campaigning. At that same event, Mr. Perlmutter reiterated that he would not seek re-election to the House. With that, four Democrats hopped into the open seat congressional race, including a former US Ambassador and three state legislators.
Late last week came word that Perlmutter is yet again re-considering his political plans and is reportedly leaning toward reversing course yet again, this time to stay in the House. It now appears the rumors are accurate, as the Congressman has scheduled another political announcement for Monday. It is presumed that he will declare for a seventh term in the House. It is further presumed that at least the three sitting state legislators will end their congressional quests and return to running for their current positions. The Perlmutter move will reduce the current number of 2018 regular cycle open seats to nineteen. --Jim Ellis The first Republican to announce a Senate challenge to North Dakota first-term incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D) came forward yesterday to publicly declare his statewide bid. State Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton), active in the financial services, real estate, and agriculture industries, officially entered the statewide campaign. Most of the pre-campaign attention had been centered upon at-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck), but the more time progresses the less likely it appears that the Congressman will make the challenge. This race will be viewed as competitive, but Sen. Heitkamp must be rated as the favorite to win a second term.
--Jim Ellis In a court ruling that engendered only one major surprise, the special three-judge federal panel long considering the Texas redistricting case, issued a ruling that is intended to be in place before the 2018 election. The legislature could re-draw the lines to comply with the ruling, but it appears Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will not call a special session to deal with the issue saying he is confident the US Supreme Court will reverse the ruling. If not, the two districts most affected will be those of Reps. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) and Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin/San Antonio). The lone surprise is that the ruling does not appear to affect Rep. Will Hurd’s (R-San Antonio/El Paso) CD, but predicting how a re-draw will affect specific districts is difficult to do at this early juncture.
--Jim Ellis Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson (D), at one time considered as a potential Senate challenger to incumbent Republican Dean Heller, yesterday officially said he will not run statewide next year. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) is already an announced candidate. Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) is said to be considering declaring her candidacy. Sen. Heller is drawing Republican primary opposition from perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. Nevada is the top Democratic national conversion target.
--Jim Ellis |
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