CA-22: Democratic Competition: In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 - 48.5%, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Mr. Salas, who many regard as the Congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.
While Ms. Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96% of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Mr. Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao. FL-9: Republican to Try Again: Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37%) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30% different territory from when Mr. Quinones ran the first time. Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46% margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R. CA-9: Candidate Withdraws; Endorses: Pastor Brett Dood, who had previously declared his congressional candidacy to compete against Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy), announced yesterday that he will end his campaign. Mr. Dood then said he would support Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) who became a congressional candidate last week. Republicans now appear to be uniting behind Mr. Lincoln, meaning they will have a credible challenger against Rep. Harder in a district that can become competitive.
In 2021 redistricting, Rep. Harder fared poorly and moved into the 9th District to run after veteran Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) announced his retirement. Though Rep. Harder had less than 28% of the crossover population from his previous 10th District, he still recorded a 55-45% victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) but needed to outspend him by a 6:1 ratio in order to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-9 as D+8. Though in an underdog position, this is the type of seat Republicans need to put in play to protect their small majority. NY-4: Dem Battle Brewing: There was no doubt that freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) was going to face a major re-election battle in 2024. He was the 2022 election cycle’s big upset winner in defeating former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Now, however, it appears that Ms. Gillen, who has announced she will return for a rematch, will face her own major challenge in the Democratic primary. Though he has not yet made an official announcement, two-term state Senator Kevin Thomas (D-Levittown) has filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. Expect this race to draw significant national political attention from beginning to end. RI-1: Matos’ Signatures Undergoing Greater Scrutiny: Earlier, we reported that Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), a candidate in the special election to replace resigned Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline (D), is under scrutiny about the legality of her petition signatures. Now, the situation has become more serious. Yesterday, the Rhode Island Board of Elections members voted 5-1 to investigate her petition filing. The Board will order research on each of the submitted petition signatures to ensure the required number of legal entries are present. If short of the required 750 number, Ms. Matos would be disqualified from participating as a candidate in an election where she appears as the clear leader. A total of 12 Democrats have preliminarily been approved for the special election ballot. The Democratic primary, winning of which is tantamount to claiming the seat, is scheduled for September 5th. Kentucky: GOP Poll Shows Closing Race: The Republican State Leadership Committee released a new Public Opinion Strategies survey (7/19-20; 500 KY registered voters; live interview) showing a closing of the 2023 Governor’s race between incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). The ballot test finds the Governor holding only a 49-45% edge. The poll counters another POS poll from late June for a public interest group that posted Gov. Beshear to a 52-42% lead. The election is scheduled for November 7th.
New Hampshire: Former US Senator Ayotte Enters Open Gov Race: Former New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), who won a landslide 2010 victory with a 60-36% spread but lost her seat six years later to current incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) in a razor-thin 49-48% margin, announced yesterday that she will return to active politics with a run for Governor. Four-term incumbent Chris Sununu (R), who is not seeking a fifth two-year term, leaves behind what promises to be a hotly contested general election as well as two competitive party primaries. In addition to Sen. Ayotte entering the Governor’s race, former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is also an announced Republican candidate. The Democrats already feature a race for their party nomination between Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Michigan: Slotkin Posts Larger Lead: Mitchell Research conducted a new poll of the Michigan electorate (7/11-13; 639 MI likely voters; SMS text) and finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) recording a 44-38% lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and an even larger 41-28% advantage over ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer (R). Both are potential Senate candidates. The accuracy level of this poll could be questioned, however. The sample number of 639 is low for a purely electronic poll, and the all-text questionnaire did not accept any respondent who failed to answer all of the survey’s 22 questions.
Alabama: New House Redistricting Map Passes Legislature: On Friday, the Alabama legislature passed a new congressional map as directed, but the controversy appears far from over. The US Supreme Court decision that there could be another minority seat drawn on the Alabama map was addressed in the special session that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) called to comply with the SCOTUS ruling.
Assuming the Governor signs the new legislation creating the map, the Democratic plaintiffs have already said they will object to the new plan. The initial challenge to this new map will return to the three judge panel who originally declared the Alabama map unconstitutional. It will be up to the three Republican judges to determine if this plan meets the guidelines that the SCOTUS ruling outlined. We can expect detailed and possibly contentious arguments to occur when attorneys from both sides again appear before the judicial panel. The Alabama primary is being held concurrently with Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024, so expect the new lawsuit to be quickly filed. RI-1: Matos’ Signatures Challenged: As last week closed, controversy arose in the special election to replace resigned Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline (D). Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, who polling suggests has opened a large lead over the field of 21 other Democrats, now may face a challenge over whether her required 750 petition signatures are all from legally registered voters. Ms. Matos’ campaign spokesperson said they will review the signatures today to ensure that she has met the legal requirement. If the challenge proves valid and Ms. Matos is disqualified, the race becomes wide open. The Democratic primary, winning of which is tantamount to claiming the seat, is scheduled for September 5th. UT-2: Lawsuit Filed Challenging Maloy’s Legitimacy: One of the special election Republican candidates who lost the Utah Republican Party’s 2nd District endorsing convention and did not file petition signatures to continue his candidacy, has now filed a lawsuit challenging the officially endorsed candidate, Celeste Maloy who is resigning Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R-Farmington) legal counsel. Two weeks ago, objection to Ms. Maloy’s voter registration status arose since she last cast a ballot in Utah during the 2018 election. She moved to the Washington, DC area to work for Rep. Stewart, thus explaining her absence from the state. Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson (R), who is the state’s chief elections officer, approved her petition, thus allowing her candidacy. Now, however, former candidate Quin Denning (R) is filing an official legal challenge to her status. He is claiming that Maloy reactivated her Utah voter registration at her sister’s house three days after filing her candidacy documents. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Bruce Hough have qualified via petition for the September 5th special primary election. The Democrats have nominated state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). Rep. Stewart is scheduled to resign on September 15th. Nevada: Brown Becoming GOP Candidate of Choice: Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), disfigured through his war injuries, is becoming the leading Nevada Republican US Senate candidate just since his official announcement on July 10th.
According to published reports, he is already the leading fundraiser in the Republican field and has the endorsement of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT), the Americans for Prosperity organization, and individual Senators such as Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). The eventual Republican nominee will oppose first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in the general election. For Republicans to gain the Senate majority, the Nevada seat must become a prime target. MI-4: Redistricting Activist to Challenge Rep. Huizenga: Attorney Jessica Swartz (D), who was one of the prime movers behind the successful ballot initiative to convert the Michigan redistricting system to a citizens’ commission, announced that she will challenge US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) next year.
Originally, Rep. Huizenga appeared to be the odd man out as national reapportionment cost Michigan a congressional seat. The map led to he and veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R) being paired in the new southwestern Michigan’s 4th CD. Rep. Upton opting for retirement after serving 36 years in the House left the seat to Huizenga, and he was re-elected with a 54-42% victory percentage last November even though he had not previously represented 75% of the new constituency. Expect this race to draw some national attention in 2024. NH-2: Rep. Kuster Staying Put: Saying that Democrats already have “two great candidates,” US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) said yesterday that she would not enter the open Governor’s race now that four-term incumbent Chris Sununu (R) has announced his retirement. It is presumed that Rep. Kuster will seek re-election to a seventh term in the House. In her comments, Rep. Kuster was referring to Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington who are declared Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Republican former state Senate President Chuck Morse immediately announced his candidacy when Gov. Sununu made his retirement plans public. Ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte may also soon join the open Republican primary. NY-16: Potential Tougher Challenger for Rep. Bowman: Last year, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) turned back two Democratic primary challengers by a 54-25-19% margin in what proved to be a moderately competitive campaign. This cycle, his competition may be more formidable. Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D), who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2017 and then won a 62-38% re-election campaign, confirms that he is considering challenging Rep. Bowman. Prior to his election to local office, Mr. Latimer served in both the New York Assembly and state Senate. Westchester County, the population of which is just short of 1 million residents, dominates the 16th CD. A total of 91% of the district lies in this one county, with the remaining territory crossing into the Bronx borough. North Carolina: New Candidate Emerges: Former state Senator Andy Wells announced yesterday that he will enter the Republican gubernatorial primary. This sets up a re-match of sorts with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. The two ran against each other in the 2020 Lt. Governor’s primary, a political battle that Mr. Robinson won by almost a 2:1 ratio. Also in the race is former Congressman Mark Walker. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro at this point is unopposed but may have opposition from former state Supreme Court justice Mike Morgan. The 2024 Governor’s race is open because incumbent Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New Hampshire: UNH Poll Shows GOP Race Tightening: A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll was released during the week (7/13-17; 2,208 NH registered voters; 898 likely Republican primary voters; 743 likely Democratic primary voters; online), and it shows a tightening of the Republican presidential contest. According to this data, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped to 37-23%. The second tier has also moved up. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and ex-UN Ambassador Nikky Haley all posted between 8 and 5% support.
On the Democratic side, 65% of President Biden’s voters say they will vote for him as a write-in if he doesn’t participate in the New Hampshire primary. This would likely be enough for him to beat Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, even without the President’s name on the ballot. New Hampshire is not likely to agree with the new Democratic National Committee primary schedule, so Biden may not participate. Ohio: New Poll Continues to Show Toss-Up Race: Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (7/9-12; 500 OH mostly likely voters; live interview), finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in a dead heat match with newly announced US Senate candidate Frank LaRose (R), Ohio’s Secretary of State. According to the results, the two candidates would each attract 45% of the vote. If state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown would lead 46-43%. Should businessman Bernie Moreno win the GOP primary, Sen. Brown’s margin against him in a general election pairing would be 48-41%.
The poll tested the Republican primary, but the sample cell is too low (190) to make a definitive judgment. The basic results give Mr. LaRose just a 19-14-9% edge over Sen. Dolan and Mr. Moreno, respectively. A majority of 56%, however, said they were undecided. Ohio will be one of the top Senate races in the 2024 general election. |
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