NY-17: Ex-Rep Opens with Big Dem Primary Lead: Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), in a comeback attempt in his former Rockland/Westchester County district after losing re-election last year in New York City, released a survey of Democratic voters. The results of the Public Policy Polling study (7/14-15; 570 NY-17 likely Democratic primary voters) gives Mr. Jones a strong 43-8% ballot test advantage over local school board member Liz Gereghty, who is also the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The Democratic primary winner will face freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in what promises to be a tight general election.
New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Won’t Run Again: As expected, four-term Granite State Governor Chris Sununu (R) announced yesterday that he will retire when his term ends at the end of next year. Gov. Sununu is only the second chief executive in state history to serve four two-year terms. The other was Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who was in office from 2005 to the beginning of 2013.
Gov. Sununu was first elected in a close 2016 election, but then recorded three successive victories with substantial margins. He briefly considered entering the 2024 presidential campaign before deciding against launching a national effort. Immediately, former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who actually served two days as Governor when then-Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) resigned early to be sworn into the Senate, confirmed that he will run. Mr. Morse last ran for the Senate in 2022 but suffered a one-point loss in the Republican primary. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also a potential gubernatorial candidate. Previously announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates are Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Expect this open Governor’s race to yield a hard fought toss-up campaign. Florida: First Democrat Announces: Democrats have not yet recruited a top candidate to challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R), but at least they now have a contender coming forward. Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who challenged Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) in 2020 and lost 65-34%, is now a US Senate candidate. While losing, Mr. Ehr did raise over $2 million, but he will need substantially more even to win the Democratic primary.
The only other challenger to Sen. Scott, who was also twice elected Governor, is Republican businessman Keith Gross. It was believed that Mr. Gross could fund a significant portion of his campaign, and so far he has added $661,000 to his political treasury. Outside of his personal loan, Mr. Gross only raised $9,000 during the 2nd Quarter fundraising period. At this point, Sen. Scott is a clear favorite for renomination and re-election. NC-13: New Potential GOP Candidate: State legislative analyst Jeff Hauser (R) says he is interested in exploring a congressional candidacy next year in the district that freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) currently holds. Expect this seat to significantly change once the new congressional map is drawn and passes the state legislature. With the new Republican state Supreme Court likely to approve the eventual map, expect this district to become much better territory for the GOP.
Bo Hines (R), who lost in November to Mr. Nickel 52-48%, is said to be considering mounting a comeback. He proved, however, to be a weak candidate so look for the GOP leadership to look in a different direction once the new map is presented and approved. Louisiana: Landry Opens Huge Dollar Advantage: On Monday, we reported that a BDPC consulting firm poll (7/6-10; 600 LA registered voters; live interview) found a close ballot test result of 30-28% between Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and former LA Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D). The new fundraising disclosure reports show a much different picture of this developing statewide campaign.
During the 2nd Quarter, Mr. Landry raised $4.7 million and has over $9.2 million cash-on-hand. Conversely, Mr. Wilson raised only $560,000 and reports $590,000 in the bank. The closest contender to Mr. Landry is state Treasurer John Schroder (R). While raising only $220,000 for the quarter, the Schroder campaign reports $2.2 million in their campaign account. Louisiana’s all-party jungle primary is scheduled for October 14th of this year. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on November 18th. Missouri: Ashcroft Down on Money: While Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, son of former Missouri Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, is viewed to be the leader of the open gubernatorial Republican primary, the 2nd Quarter fundraising reports show him on the downside of the money count. In a battle of supportive PACs, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe’s affiliated American Dream PAC raised $1.2 million as compared to the Committee for Liberty’s (Ashcroft) $290,000. St. Charles County state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring), who has not yet officially announced for Governor, saw his leadership committee, BILL PAC, raise over $800,000. GOP Gov. Mike Parson is ineligible to run for a third term. State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield) is the leading Democratic contender. Republicans are favored to win the open general election. Debate: Projected Qualifiers: USA Today is projecting that six GOP presidential contenders will qualify for the August 23rd debate, while another half-dozen may miss the cut. The candidates meeting the polling and donor requirements are, as expected, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The others are ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, and former Gov. Chris Christie.
Those on the cusp of failing to meet the participation requirements are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Congressman Will Hurd, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and commentator Larry Elder. Ohio: Sec of State Announces for Senate: As has been long expected, a third major Republican has joined the US Senate primary hoping to advance into the general election to oppose incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D). Frank LaRose was first elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2018 after serving two terms in the Ohio state Senate from the Akron area. He averaged 55.0% of the vote in his two victorious statewide campaigns.
Mr. LaRose is the only one of the three GOP candidates – the others being state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and businessman Bernie Moreno – who has won a statewide race. Sen. Dolan ran for the US Senate in 2022 but lost the Republican primary. Mr. Moreno was also in that Senate race but withdrew before voting began seeing no reasonable victory path. While Mr. LaRose is the only statewide official in the race, he begins well behind in the money race. Sen. Dolan has already invested $4 million into his campaign. Mr. Moreno reports raising $2.26 million in the 2nd Quarter. The general election will be difficult since Sen. Brown is a three-term incumbent. The state, however, is significantly more Republican than when the Senator last ran in 2018. The ’24 contest is becoming a must-win for the GOP if the party is to capture the Senate majority in the coming election. Senate Finance: Q2 Dollar Numbers Reported: The 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers have been released, and the 58 reporting Senate candidates in the 34 races attracted a cumulative $91.7 million and have over $228 million in their campaign accounts. This does not count any money that Super PACs have raised or plan to spend to affect the outcome of the 2024 US Senate electoral contests. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) was technically first in funds raised with $8.63 million, but $2.5 million of that total was transferred from his House committee. Rep. Allred’s potential general election opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), ranked sixth overall but first among Republicans. He attracted $3.35 million in financial support. California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was the net Q2 fundraising leader, bringing in $8.17 million without transferring from his House account. He also led the all-important cash-on-hand category with a whopping $29.8 million ready to spend on his Senate campaign. The total amounts raised during this early campaign phase suggests that we can expect another hotly contested campaign season next year. CA-9: Republicans Gain Strong Candidate: Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican elected in a heavily Democratic city, is reportedly preparing an announcement for Thursday indicating he will forego running for a second term in his present position in order to challenge Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) for the US House seat. Rep. Harder was severely redistricted in the 2021 redraw, but still managed to record a 55-45% victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R). The Congressman had a huge 6:1 advantage in resources, which became a key factor in his re-election victory.
The CA-9 district could be one to watch nationally. Republicans must defeat several sitting Democratic incumbents if they are to hold their small House majority and this northern California seat, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, could be on the cusp of becoming a top tier conversion target. Indiana: Newcomer May Enter Open Gov Race: Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers (R) yesterday announced he will be resigning his position and it is anticipated that he will quickly declare his gubernatorial candidacy.
Though starting well behind the open race’s two front runners for the Republican nomination and the general election, US Senator Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Mr. Chambers, who has the financial ability to self-fund his campaign, may soon become the fourth credible candidate in the field. Venture capitalist Eric Doden also has the ability to attract enough resources to propel his candidacy. Incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Braun is foregoing a second term in the Senate to enter the gubernatorial campaign. Wisconsin: Lt. Gov. Nominee Considers Senate Race: Former state Senator Roger Roth, who was the Republican Lt. Governor nominee on the ticket that businessman Tim Michels led and lost as the gubernatorial contender to incumbent Tony Evers (D), is now considering a US Senate run. The GOP has yet to attract a top tier candidate to oppose Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), who is seeking a third term.
Wisconsin’s close voter history trends always make the state a major target for both parties. The 2024 election will be no exception. If Republicans are going to maximize their opportunity under a favorable Senatorial map, Wisconsin will be one of the states that attracts major right-of-center support. |
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