CA-22: Democratic Competition: In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 - 48.5%, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Mr. Salas, who many regard as the Congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.
While Ms. Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96% of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Mr. Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao. FL-9: Republican to Try Again: Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37%) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30% different territory from when Mr. Quinones ran the first time. Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46% margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R. Comments are closed.
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