The Remington Research Group released a new poll of the Kansas Governor’s race (7/19-20; 1,189 KS likely general election voters via automated response device) and finds a distinct difference in how the general election polling respondents break depending upon who is cast as the eventual GOP nominee.
If Gov. Jeff Colyer wins the party nomination, he would lead state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka) and significant Independent candidate Greg Orman, 38-28-10%. But, if Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination on August 7th, the race becomes much tighter. Remington projects a virtual dead heat in the latter scenario, with Mr. Kobach leading 36-35-12% over Kelly and Orman, respectively. Having Mr. Orman campaigning from the left clearly makes the Democrats’ task more difficult as the eventual nominee will attempt to become the first Democrat to win the Kansas Governor’s office since Kathleen Sebelius was re-elected in 2006. Billionaire Jeff Greene’s (D) late entry into the Florida Governor’s race is dramatically changing the Democratic primary. Quickly spending more than $10 million to re-acquaint himself with the voters – he was a US Senate candidate in 2010 – Mr. Greene has jettisoned into third place and is clearly damaging former front runner Philip Levine, the wealthy Miami Beach Mayor.
According to an Associated Industries of Florida poll (released 7/24; 800 FL likely Democratic primary voters), former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) has surged into the lead with 24%. Mayor Levine drops to 16%, just ahead of Mr. Greene with 13%, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who has 12 percent. Businessman Chris King, as he has for most of the campaign, languishes in low single digits at 4 percent. Though the candidates are spending heavily, the most costly month of campaigning still remains, since the Florida primary is not scheduled until August 28th. Yesterday we covered a new Survey USA poll that found Secretary of State Brian Kemp leading Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, 40-34%, in today’s Republican run-off election. Now, S-USA released its general election data, pairing both Messrs. Kemp and Cagle with Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, who won the party nomination outright in the May 22nd statewide primary. According to the results, both Republicans would hold a small lead opposite Ms. Abrams. Mr. Kemp would lead, 46-44%. Lt. Gov. Cagle would hold a similar 45-43% edge.
The final state to hold its candidate filing deadline is now reporting its candidates for the fall, meaning the entire country has now set its political card. Louisiana has no Governor or Senate race this year, and none of the six House incumbents, all seeking re-election, appears to have drawn stiff competition for their November elections.
Louisiana is so late in scheduling its candidate filing deadline because their primary is also last on the political calendar. In previous years, Louisiana legislators developed a system that allowed a candidate to win a political office in the primary if a person secured majority support. Therefore, creating their jungle primary, or top-two system – now, in a modified manner, adopted in both California and Washington -- a candidate receiving majority support on election night is summarily elected. If no one gets to 50%, then the top two candidates advance to a run-off general election. After the Justice Department ruled that no longer could the state forego having a general election for all offices, the jungle primary was moved to the succeeding general election date. The run-offs, when necessary, now occur in December. It is probable that all six incumbents: Reps. Steve Scalise (R-Jefferson/Mesquite), Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans), Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette), Mike Johnson (R-Benton/Shreveport), Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Alexandria), and Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) will all win outright on November 6th. But, the 2018 general election may only be the precursor to a much bigger race coming in 2019. Then, US Senator John Kennedy (R), and possibly Rep. Abraham, may challenge Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) in what will be a major campaign with potential national implications. Gravis Marketing released the results of their Oregon gubernatorial poll (7/16-17; 770 OR likely general election voters) and surprisingly find Gov. Kate Brown (D) and state Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend) tied at 45%, apiece. The sampling group contains 33% registered Democrats, 23% registered Republicans, with the remainder (44%) being Independent or unaffiliated voters. But, the major party respondents are a bit light in each party. The actual Oregon voter registration roles show the Democrats at 35.6%, Republicans claiming 26.1%, and the combined Independent and unaffiliated total reaching 35.9%.
A skew could be present here, but the other questionnaire responses seem consistent with Oregon voters’ typical predispositions. Therefore, though this Gravis poll may well be an outlier, it also could be showing us a new trend for this particular race. More data will need examining to begin providing an answer. Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost the 2014 Governor’s race to then-state Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D) in a close 41-36% vote with Independent Bob Healey capturing over 21%, is again challenging for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
Yesterday, Mr. Fung’s campaign released the results of their latest Public Opinion Strategies survey (7/11-14; 400 RI likely Republican primary voters) and projects their candidate to a huge GOP primary lead over state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan, 62-22%. Ms. Morgan claims the results are so lopsided because the survey was a “push poll”, designed to test an extreme situation. It will take some time to determine who is correct. The Rhode Island statewide primary is not scheduled until September 12th. A new poll was released regarding tomorrow’s Republican run-off election between Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp. As we reported at the end of last week, Mr. Kemp had jumped out to a 55-37% (Fox News poll for their Atlanta affiliate) lead after negative stories surrounding Mr. Cagle had repeatedly surfaced.
Now, Survey USA releases their data, which too finds Mr. Kemp holding an advantage, but with a much lesser margin than the Fox News survey forecasts. According to S-USA (7/15-19; 2,950 GA adults; 2,423 GA registered voters; 688 GA likely Republican run-off voters including some who have already cast ballots), Mr. Kemp’s lead is 40-34%. The winner faces former state Senate Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election. Ms. Abrams won the Democratic nomination outright in the May 22nd primary election. Target Insyght released the Democratic primary numbers for their survey of Michigan’s open 11th CD (7/16-18; 500 MI-11 likely Democratic primary voters). According to the results, former US Treasury Department official Haley Stevens leads technology corporation CEO Suneel Gupta, the brother of CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, state Rep. Tim Greimel (D-Troy), and ex-Homeland Security Department official Fayrouz Saad, 21-15-14-7%, respectively, as the candidates move toward the August 7th primary election.
The Republicans are also fielding a large number of candidates, but commensurate data testing them was not yet publicized. Rep. David Trott (R-Birmingham) is retiring after two terms in office. A lot of news coverage has been generated about which member of the Conyers family will succeed resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) in Michigan’s now vacant 13th Congressional District.
According to a just-released district survey from Target Insyght (7/16-18; 600 MI-13 likely Democratic special election and primary voters), however, it doesn’t appear that state Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit) is well positioned to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to general election victory in this center-city district. The former Congressman’s son, John Conyers III, failed to qualify for the primary ballot and is, instead, entering the general election as an Independent. Doing so means his chances of winning the seat his father held since 1965 are minimal at best. According to the TI data, a very tight three-way race is evolving for the party primary. Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones has a slight 21-20-19% lead over Westland Mayor Bill Wild and former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib. State Sen. Coleman Young II, son of the former Detroit Mayor, is next with 14%, while Ian Conyers trails badly at 8 percent. The Michigan primary is scheduled for August 7th. It is likely that one individual will win both the Democratic regular and concurrent special election primaries, meaning that further elections will be a mere formality. The Republican National Committee announced on Friday that the party’s 2020 presidential nominating convention will be held in Charlotte, NC, making it the second time the city will have hosted a national major political party convention. In 2012, Democrats gathered there to re-nominate President Barack Obama.
The Democratic National Committee has narrowed its convention site choice to three cities: Houston, Miami Beach, and Milwaukee. They have set the event schedule, however, and the convention will be held from July 13-16, 2020. A fourth city host finalist, Denver, saw its leadership withdraw when the calendar was announced because of scheduling conflicts relating to their convention facilities. The Republican convention schedule has not yet been finalized, but it will come after the Democratic dates. The party holding the White House always hosts the later nominating convention. |
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