The aforementioned Florida Atlantic University poll (see Florida Senate above) also tested the wild Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor. The data is questionable for these races because the sample sizes are too low to determine a highly reliable result. For Democrats, the primary respondent cell contains only 271 voters statewide, with an even lower 262 on the Republican side.
Looking at the Democrats, newcomer Jeff Greene, a billionaire who is spending heavily from his own resources, is making a dent in primary support. According to the FAU data, which is relatively consistent with other larger-sample polls, former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) posts 20% support, while Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine is next with 16%, followed by Greene (14%), businessman Chris King (9%), and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (7%). Like in other polls, the addition of Mr. Greene has allowed Ms. Graham to move into first place because the former takes major support away from Mayor Levine. On the other hand, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy just released a new survey (7/23-25; 1,000 FL likely voters; 500 FL likely Democratic primary voters; 500 FL likely Republican primary voters) whose results better represent the preponderance of available public data. M-D also finds Ms. Graham leading the group. According to their Democratic primary result, she has a stronger 27-18-12-10-7% support margin over Messrs. Levine, Greene, Gillum, and King. For the Republicans, the FAU poll finds US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/ Daytona Beach) topping Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, which is also consistent with the other most recent polling from this race. The FAU survey finds Rep. DeSantis holding a 36-27% lead over Mr. Putnam. The Mason-Dixon GOP numbers report a similar conclusion. They see DeSantis leading 41-29%, in a race that looks completely different than it did last month. The Florida primary is August 28th, so these fluid campaign situations can still change. The new 9News (Oklahoma City)/Sooner Poll (7/18-20; 483 OK likely GOP run-off voters) finds the two Republican run-off participants, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and mortgage banker Kevin Stitt, in a dead heat, tied at 38% apiece. In the primary, Cornett placed first in a field of ten candidates with 29% of the vote. Mr. Stitt placed second with 24%, thus both advanced to the run-off election because no one reached majority support. The winner of the August 28th contest moves into the general election against former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who won the Democratic nomination outright on June 26th. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
It’s rare when a state Senate President fails to endorse a Governor of the same party, but that’s what just happened in Kansas. The state, having one of the most notorious splits between Republican conservatives and moderates, continues to see division within GOP leadership ranks.
Yesterday, state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita) announced that she is supporting Secretary of State Kris Kobach for the Republican nomination over Gov. Jeff Colyer. The latter man, who was elected Lt. Governor, ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Sam Brownback (R) accepted a position in the Trump Administration. The Kansas primary is fast approaching on August 7th. Third-time congressional candidate Justin Fareed (R) just released a new internal Olive Tree Strategies poll (7/12-15; 404 CA-24 likely general election voters) that claims he trails freshman Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) by only one percentage point, 47-46%. In 2016, culminating a tough open seat campaign, then-County Supervisor Carbajal defeated businessman Fareed, 53-47%.
Clearly push questions were used in the poll, but they were not released. The poll summary refers to “15 messages critical of Salud” being presented to the respondents. Therefore, it is difficult to tell exactly when the above ballot test was posed. The 24th District, covering all of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, with a sliver of Ventura added, can yield close campaigns but probably not a Republican victory. The constituency voted 57-37% in Hillary Clinton’s favor, for example. The Morning Consult firm often tests the effectiveness of each of the nation’s 50 Governors, and they just released new results, yesterday. As has been the case for some time, the two Governors with the strongest approval ratings are Republicans in the most Democratic of states: Massachusetts’ Gov. Charlie Baker (69%), and Maryland’s Larry Hogan (68%). Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) was third in this ratings set, scoring a 67:17% job approval ratio. The top ten favorably viewed Governors were all Republicans.
The two lowest rated Governors, Oklahoma’s Mary Fallin (R) and Connecticut’s Dan Malloy (D), are retiring. Gov. Fallin drops to 19:74% favorable to unfavorable, while Gov. Malloy records a similar 21:71%. The Governor standing for re-election with the worst approval score is Illinois Republican Bruce Rauner (27:60%). Other Governors on the 2018 ballot with upside down job approval scores according to Morning Consult are Alaska’s Independent Bill Walker (29:54%), Scott Walker (R-WI; 42:50%), David Ige (D-HI; 39:46%), Gina Raimondo (D-RI; 44:46%), and Doug Ducey (R-AZ; 41:43%). Just a day after Secretary of State Brian Kemp won a landslide Republican run-off victory to become the party’s gubernatorial nominee, the Republican Governors Association launched a media wave against Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, the former state House Minority Leader.
The ad returns to previous themes that have worked for Republicans in Georgia elections: tying the Democratic candidate to Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton. The message claims that Abrams’ campaign is funded with money Nancy Pelosi’s California “friends” raise for her, and then moves to a video of Hillary Clinton, taped back in May immediately after Ms. Abrams won the party nomination, expressing her joy at the electoral result and pledging to do whatever she can for the new nominee in the ensuing campaign. It appears Georgians are in for a very long gubernatorial contest. Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) has long been down in the polls even before his poor performance in the March Republican primary when he barely won re-nomination. The newly released Victory Communications survey provides no contrary information. According to the data (6/26-28; 1,208 IL likely general election voters via automated response device), Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire venture capitalist, leads Gov. Rauner, also a billionaire, 45-30%, in a race where combined spending will likely top $300 million for the campaign cycle. Obviously, Illinois is the Democrats’ best national conversion opportunity.
Peach State voters went to the polls yesterday and Republicans chose Secretary of State Brian Kemp to oppose former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams in the state’s open general election for Governor. Mr. Kemp’s victory over Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle was a landslide 69-31% result. Mr. Cagle’s self-inflicted political wounds, then allowing Mr. Kemp get to his ideological right, and President Trump and Vice President Pence endorsing within the last two weeks all culminated in a huge victory for the retiring Secretary of State.
In the Democratic US House run-off campaigns, gun control activist Lucy McBath defeated businessman Kevin Abel, 54-46%, to become the party nominee for the right to face freshman Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell). The Congresswoman begins the official general election campaign with more than $1 million in her bank account and is the clear favorite for the general election. In the northeastern Atlanta metro district, Democrats nominated former state Senate Budget director Carolyn Bourdeaux to oppose four-term Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville). She won a close 52-48% contest over businessman David Kim in a very low turnout election of just over 15,000 voters. Here, too, the Republican incumbent is considered the favorite for November. Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) has consistently won his tough suburban Denver district that was drawn to elect a Democrat. A new Global Strategy Group poll (7/11-17; 506 CO-6 likely general election voters) for the Jason Crow (D) campaign finds the Democratic challenger grabbing a tight 47-45% edge. Like in many polls this year, and what could be the Democrats’ greatest asset in the current election cycle, the unaffiliated voters are breaking decidedly their way. According to GSG, Mr. Crow’s margin within this segment is 49-35% over Rep. Coffman. This race will be classified as a toss-up all the way to Election Day.
Monmouth University (7/19-22; 401 PA-17 registered voters) gives us the first glimpse of western Pennsylvania’s paired incumbents’ race between Reps. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) and Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley). Rep. Lamb, fresh from his special election victory that allowed him to spend more than $10 million to become known throughout western PA, is taking advantage of his early assets. In the Monmouth survey, Mr. Lamb posts a strong 51-39% lead over Rep. Rothfus in a district that looks to be a pure toss-up on paper. The 17th District will host one of the most important congressional campaigns in the 2018 cycle.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|