Hampton University gives us our first major look at the Old Dominion Democratic presidential primary (taken 5/29-6/6; released 6/20; 1,126 VA registered voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary) and, like the recent Florida poll (see above), former Vice President Joe Biden claims a 30+% lead with Mayor Pete Buttigieg gaining momentum. Here, the numbers break 36-17-13-11-7% for Mr. Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. Virginia has 99 first ballot delegates, ranking it 12th highest of the 57 delegate voting entities.
As reported in the Baton Rouge Advocate news publication, Market Research Insight conducted a poll of Louisiana voters (released 6/20; 600 LA registered voters) and finds incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) regaining a substantial lead in the upcoming 2019 Governor’s race. Mr. Edwards, according to MRI, leads US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), 46-17-5%, a far better margin than detected in recent surveys. In isolated run-off pairings, Gov. Edwards would out pace Rep. Abraham 45-28%, and Mr. Rispone, 47-23%.
The MRI poll could have a Democratic skew, however, because President Trump’s numbers were abnormally low in a state of proven strength for him. The Advocate column also points out that while MRI correctly projected the 2015 Louisiana Governor’s race, the firm’s data was wholly inaccurate for the 2017 New Orleans Mayor’s contest. Former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore returned to elective politics yesterday in announcing his second bid for the US Senate. We will remember that Judge Moore lost the special Senate election to current incumbent Doug Jones (D) in late 2017.
For the 2020 election cycle, Judge Moore’s chances are poor. While he may have enough support to slip into a run-off, in a one-on-one contest he will likely not have enough political strength to upend either Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, or Secretary of State John Merrill. The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd. If no one receives majority support, which is a likelihood, the top two finishers will run-off on April 14th. Regardless of what at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) might do regarding retiring Sen. Mike Enzi’s (R) Senate seat, it appears that former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) is moving forward. Yesterday, the ex-Congresswoman took the step of changing the name of the federal campaign committee she still has from her days in the House. Instead of “Lummis for Congress,” her campaign committee is now called, “Lummis for Wyoming.”
Cynthia Lummis served both as Wyoming State Treasurer and as a member of Congress for eight years in each office. She also was elected to the Wyoming House and Senate prior to running for statewide office. She officially retired from the House at the beginning of 2017, choosing not to seek a fifth term in the 2016 election. This week has now brought three North Carolina gubernatorial polls into the public domain featuring first-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. As reported earlier in the week, Harper Polling (6/8-10; 500 NC likely voters) found Gov. Cooper holding a ten-point lead over Mr. Forest, 47-37%. Spry Strategies, polling for the North Carolina Republican Party (conducted in May but released 6/18; 730 NC registered voters), saw Lt. Gov. Forest post a 44-40% edge.
Now, Public Policy Polling enters the picture with their data (6/17-18; 610 NC registered voters) posting Gov. Cooper to a 45-41% advantage. But, this PPP survey could be skewed a bit in Cooper’s favor. The poll overstates the Democratic sample by 6.1% as compared to the actual state count. They boost the Republican total by three percentage points but downgrade the Unaffiliateds by more than eight points. Considering this skew, the ballot test numbers could actually be much closer. Former state Rep. Mindi Messmer (D) was publicly considering challenging Gov. Chris Sununu (R) next year, but her actual political decision is different. Instead of running for Governor, Ms. Messmer announced yesterday that she would run for the state’s five-member Executive Council from her district. This unique panel has power to scrutinize and void the Governor’s actions on appointments, government contracts, and pardons.
The Montana at-large seat hasn’t been open for even a week, and already the Club for Growth is running attack ads against one of the new Republican candidates. The subject is Secretary of State Corey Stapleton who was met with the paid opposition media just two days after he decided to swing into the at-large House seat from the Governor’s campaign. The CfG is supporting state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) for the open House seat, as they did in his Senate race last year against incumbent Jon Tester (D).
It’s unclear whether Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) will run for re-election after calling for President Trump’s impeachment, but several individuals in both parties have already declared their candidacies against him.
We already know that state Rep. James Lower (R-Greenville) and local official and Iraq War veteran Tom Norton are challenging Mr. Amash in the Republican primary. Yesterday, attorney Nick Colvin declared for the Democratic nomination joining two other Democrats in a district that is quickly becoming a hotbed of political activity. Speculation continues to grow that Rep. Amash may jettison the House to run for the Libertarian presidential nomination. Two Republican-based polls finds very different results from their data testing GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest versus first-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D).
The conservative Civitas Institute contracted with Harper Polling to gauge Gov. Cooper’s strength. Their poll (6/8-10; 500 NC likely voters) found the incumbent holding a ten-point lead over Mr. Forest, 47-37%. But, Spry Strategies, polling for the North Carolina Republican Party (conducted in May but released 6/18; 730 NC registered voters) actually draws the opposite conclusion. They find Lt. Gov. Forest capturing a 44-40% lead even though the Governor’s job approval rating is a whopping 60:38% positive to negative. Both Suffolk and Monmouth Universities conducted national Democratic presidential primary polls, and largely come to the same conclusions, though with some differences. Suffolk (6/11-15; 1,000 US registered voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden posting 30% support, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) following with half that number, 15 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is next with 10%, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) registering 6% preference.
But, Monmouth U (6/12-17; 301 US self-identified Democratic voters) sees a slightly different order. They, too, project Mr. Biden first with a similar 32%, but Sen. Warren slips into second place with 15%, just ahead of Sen. Sanders’ 14%. Sen. Harris picks up 8%, and Mayor Buttigieg pulls 5% support. The Monmouth poll is likely less reliable since their national sample (301 respondents) is so small. |
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