Yesterday, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced that he will officially join the Republican US Senate primary. Already in the race are US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County).
By tomorrow, we will know if former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore will also become a player in the Senate Republican primary. Mr. Moore has scheduled a speech tomorrow but is not hinting whether it will be a candidacy announcement or if he will bypass making another run. The eventual Republican nominee faces Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd, with a run-off, if necessary, on April 14th. State Rep. Adam Hattersley (D-Riverview) yesterday announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Russ Spano (R-Dover). The new Congressman won his post with a 53-47% victory over Democratic nominee Kristen Carlson, in 2018. Mr. Spano replaced Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland), who retired. Controversy arose around Mr. Spano just after the election when it was learned that his campaign may have accepted illegal loans, but no hearings have been scheduled nor penalties assessed.
It appears that Mr. Hattersley will be stronger Democratic candidate than Ms. Carlson, so this central Florida seat figures to be competitive next year. The man thought to be the Republican leadership’s top candidate recruitment prospect to challenge freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City), state Sen. Dan McCay (R-Riverton), said yesterday that he will not run for Congress. Mr. McAdams unseated then-Rep. Mia Love (R) in one of the tightest elections in the country last year, a win of less than two votes per precinct. Even without Mr. McCay as their candidate, Republicans will find a top-notch opponent to challenge what should be a vulnerable freshman Democrat in the coming election.
A new Gravis Marketing survey finds a major change developing in the Kentucky Governor’s race. First-term incumbent Republican Matt Bevin has been lagging in polling throughout the primary season, brandishing some of the worst job approval numbers of any Governor in the country.
Yesterday, however, Gravis Marketing (6/11-12; 741 KY registered voters) released Kentucky political data that suggests Mr. Bevin has already rebounded from his slow start. The Gravis results find Mr. Bevin holding a 48-42% lead over state Attorney General Andy Beshear, the candidate who prevailed for the Democratic nomination in a close race back on May 21st. Clearly, these are Gov. Bevin’s best numbers of the campaign cycle and suggests he may have turned the corner in his re-election campaign effort. The general election is scheduled for November 5th, so much time remains for both candidates to improve their standing. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who was aced out of appearing in the first presidential candidate forum scheduled for Miami late next week after it had originally appeared that he had secured a podium, has qualified via the polling option for the second debate. The Detroit forum is scheduled for July 30-31.
The development means that at least one of the participants in the first debate will not return for the second. Polling is the tie-breaking factor, so whoever lags in the sanctioned surveys behind Gov. Bullock, likely New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, will not appear on either night of the Detroit debate series. With at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) now officially running for Governor, it didn’t take long for the Montana political musical chairs to start moving. Yesterday, Secretary of State Corey Stapleton confirmed that he will exit the open Governor’s race and enter the newly open Republican primary for the at-large US House seat. Additionally, state Auditor Matt Rosendale, who lost the US Senate race to incumbent Jon Tester (D) in November, says he will also again become a congressional candidate.
Both Messrs. Stapleton and Rosendale ran for the House before, and against each other. They both lost a close three-way Republican primary contest to Navy Seal Ryan Zinke in 2014. The latter man would go onto win the House race, and then eventually be appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. We can expect more candidates to soon announce their intentions. After declaring for Lt. Governor at the end of last year, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) yesterday announced that he is switching into the US Senate race and hopes to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Mr. Cunningham served one two-year term in the state Senate, lost the 2010 US Senate Democratic primary, and completed Army JAG Corps tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Erica Smith (D-Gaston), former state Sen. Eric Mansfield, and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller. Sen. Tillis draws opposition from wealthy retired venture capitalist Garland Tucker in the Republican primary. North Carolina Senate campaigns are always highly competitive, and this one will be no exception. Former Florida Congressman Allen West (R) is about to re-enter politics, but in Texas and not the Sunshine State. Yesterday, the former House member said he will decide in the next couple of weeks whether he will seek the Republican nomination in the 32nd Congressional District and possibly oppose former Rep. Pete Sessions, the incumbent that freshman Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) unseated in November. Or, Mr. West claims he might challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R). Or, weighing still another political option, he may instead decide to run for Texas Republican Party chairman. We shall know soon.
Yesterday, Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke (D) said he will not pursue the Democratic nomination in next year’s August Senate primary election. Meanwhile, Republicans are still awaiting former Gov. Bill Haslam’s decision about whether he will again become a statewide candidate. After postponing publicizing his decision for now a third time, Mr. Haslam promises a candidate decision “within two or three weeks.”
The Republican potential field has been frozen awaiting word from the former two-term Governor. But, the seat is expected to remain safely in Republican hands after veteran incumbent Lamar Alexander (R) indicated that he will not run for a fourth term next year. Four-term GOP Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) announced on Friday that she will not seek re-election in 2020, saying she wants to devote the next part of her life to interests outside of elective politics. Her decision means the open seat count grows to ten, including the two North Carolina seats that will be decided in special elections on September 10th. The 5th District is reliably Republican but could become competitive in an open seat situation in a strong Democratic year.
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