A day after state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) announced her Senate candidacy, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee leadership officially endorsed her effort. Though three others turned the DSCC down, it looks like the party now has a credible opponent for four-term Sen. Susan Collins (R). Also in the Democratic race is former gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet, but it is now obvious that the endorsements and resources will begin to fall in line behind Ms. Gideon.
Veteran Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), who will turn 86 years old before he is sworn in for a fifth full term, filed a new committee with the Federal Election Commission to signal he will indeed seek re-election. Though the move does not constitute an official announcement of candidacy, it is clear that the Senator plans to be on the ballot once again in 2020. His re-election chances are strong.
On their fourth try in attempting to recruit a strong challenger against Sen. Susan Collins (R), the Democratic leadership convinced state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) to join the campaign. Though Ms. Gideon should be a credible opponent for Sen. Collins, the party heads unsuccessfully tried to convince three others to enter the race before turning to their present recruit. Reps. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), and ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Rep. Pingree’s daughter, all declined to run. At this point, Sen. Collins is favored to win a fifth term.
Veteran Dallas state Senator Royce West (D), who has a strong political base within Texas’ second largest city, confirmed rumors yesterday that he is considering joining the Democratic primary in hope of opposing Sen. John Cornyn (R) next year. The party appeared to be coalescing around retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar, but Sen. West entering the campaign could initiate a focus change. Sen. Cornyn, who raised over $7.8 million in the first quarter, more than any other candidate in the entire country, will be favored to win a fourth term.
Retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) announced his US Senate candidacy yesterday, the first credible candidate to come forward since Gov. Chris Sununu (R) ruled himself out as a candidate early last month. Gen. Bolduc could become credible, but Sen. Shaheen remains a clear favorite for re-election.
Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley was the only announced Republican in the open 2nd District congressional race, but now the GOP must look for another candidate. Already, Mayor Kedley has withdrawn from the race, saying he can make a better impact at the local level. Other Republicans, including former GOP Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-IL), have been mentioned as possible candidates, but as yet none have come forward. Democrats are coalescing behind former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Gov. nominee Rita Hart. Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) is retiring after seven terms.
Former Philadelphia suburban Congressman Joe Sestak, who lost the US Senate race to current incumbent Pat Toomey in 2010, came out of nowhere yesterday to announce his presidential candidacy. Mr. Sestak, who served as an Admiral in the US Navy and on President Clinton’s National Security Council before being elected to Congress, is billing himself as Admiral Joe for the presidential campaign. His late start, he says, is due to his daughter’s illness and her overcoming brain cancer for a second time. At this point, with little possibility of qualifying for the debates, he is the longest of shots to become a credible candidate.
It’s no surprise that the Public Policy Polling data released late last week confirms other surveys that depict North Carolina as hosting a close 2020 Senate race. The results are perfectly consistent with the state’s voting history. The poll (6/17-18; 610 NC registered voters) finds Sen. Thom Tillis (R) trailing newly-announced Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator and statewide candidate, 40-41%. But, as we pointed out last week in covering the release about the Governor’s data, this poll appears to contain a slight Democratic skew within the polling sample.
Previous reports suggested that the 2020 congressional race for this Orange County congressional seat – freshman Rep. Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) unseated veteran Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) here last November – is already virtually set. With the local Republican leadership coalescing around Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel (R), the seemingly last formidable potential candidate has moved into another race. Former state Senator Janet Nguyen (R), who had previously indicated interest in the congressional contest, just filed to run for the Orange County Municipal Water Board. A Rouda-Steel congressional battle will become a national campaign. The 48th CD is one that the Republicans could return to their column.
Change Research conducted a Florida poll (6/16-17; 1,130 FL likely Democratic primary voters via automated voice response system) and again found former Vice President Joe Biden leading in the 30- percentile range. But, the mover in this survey is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who bounces back into double-digits and creates a three-way race for second place. The ballot test finds Mr. Biden holding 33% support with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) following at 20%, while Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) tie for third place at 15% apiece.
Florida is the fourth largest state at the Democratic National Convention with 219 first ballot delegates. If this poll were completely accurate, Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren would all qualify for Florida convention votes under the Democratic Party delegate dispersion formula. |
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