Over the past six weeks, several polls have been conducted of the toss-up Sunshine State Senate race, and now we see another where the two candidates are virtually tied. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the EDGE Communications group (6/18-19; 1,308 FL registered voters; automated), finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D), leading Gov. Rick Scott (R), 48-46%. The two most recent polls have given Gov. Scott a similarly small lead. The PPP data also finds each man’s favorability index about even, too. Sen. Nelson’s ratio is 42:41% positive to negative, while Gov. Scott is slightly upside down at 44:46%.
Gov. David Ige (D) has been trailing US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) in several Democratic gubernatorial primary polls, but he is getting a new boost from certain labor unions. Recently, the United Public Workers union and the Unite Here! union, which represents hospitality, food service, and healthcare workers, both endorsed Gov. Ige. The UPW is a member of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees Association, AFL-CIO. On the other hand, the Hawaii United Professional Assembly endorsed Rep. Hanabusa. The Hawaii primary is August 11th.
The abnormally large Democratic gubernatorial field just got a bit smaller as the candidates move toward Wisconsin’s August 14th state primary. After seeing polling giving Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers continued substantial leads over the field of ten Democratic candidates even though three-quarters of the respondents are choosing other contenders, businessman Andy Gronik and state Rep. Dana Wachs (D-Eau Claire) have both decided to end their campaigns. The eventual nominee, and it most likely appears that Mr. Evers will become the party standard bearer, will then challenge Gov. Scott Walker (R) who is running for a third term.
Six-term Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) may not yet be officially qualified for the Colorado primary ballot. Skipping the district nominating convention because he fared poorly there in 2016, Mr. Lamborn instead went the petition signature route to qualify for the ballot. Using this option, candidates need 1,000 valid signatures from registered Republican (or Democratic, as the case may be) voters in the particular voting district.
Previously, we covered gubernatorial candidate Walker Stapleton (R) withdrawing his petition signatures because he found fraudulent entries among names gathered through his contracted consulting firm, Kennedy Enterprises. Now, it appears that Mr. Lamborn, contracting with the same entity, is not yet clear of legal problems. A lower court judge disqualified 58 names from his petitions, but 1,211 remain as valid still giving him a cushion of more than 200 signatures. Now, however, the state Supreme Court is considering a suit charging that Kennedy Enterprises used petition circulators who aren’t Colorado residents. If proven true, then all petitions the ineligible circulators gathered would be disqualified. The court has ordered the plaintiffs and defendants to submit briefs by tomorrow. State Sen. Owen Hill (R-Colorado Springs) and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, the 2016 US Senate nominee, are challenging Rep. Lamborn in the June 26th Republican congressional primary. --Jim Ellis The new Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll was just released yesterday (6/6-17; 893 CA adults, 767 registered voters, 498 of whom voted in the 6/5 state primary; online) and posts Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) to only a 36-18% lead over state Senator and former Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles). The remaining 46% declared themselves as undecided. The Feinstein total is obviously low for an incumbent who was originally elected in a 1992 special election, and then won four full terms in subsequent campaign years. In the June 5th jungle primary, Sen. Feinstein garnered 44% of the vote, well under a majority, but she also faced 31 opponents. Sen. de Leon advancing creates a double-Democrat general election. He placed second with just 12% of the vote, however.
A new pre-primary survey from the Hinckley Institute of the University of Utah, conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune newspaper, finds former presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R) in position to score a landslide US Senate primary nomination victory on Tuesday night. The poll (6/11-18; 654 UT registered voters; 356 UT registered Republicans) finds Mr. Romney holding a commanding 65-23% lead over state Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Provo). In a general election pairing, Mr. Romney holds a 58-20% lead over Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson who won the Democratic nomination in convention.
Democrats and Republicans made their US House nominations official in the June 12th state primary, and Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy yesterday released its at-large congressional race results from their new statewide survey (6/13-15; 625 ND likely general election voters).
According to M-D, state Sen. Kelly Armstrong (R-Dickinson) leads former state House Minority Leader Mac Schneider (D), 46-35%, on the ballot test question. Mr. Armstrong is getting 83% of the Republicans and just 3% of Democrats. Mr. Schneider polls a stronger 91% of Democrats but secures only 1% of the GOP voter base. Among the independents, Sen. Armstrong holds a 39-26% advantage. The winner replaces three-term Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) who is running for the Senate. Referring to the LA Times/USC California poll discussed above (see California Senate), the new post-primary Governor’s race was also tested. To no one’s surprise, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) opens with a strong 45-28% advantage over attorney John Cox (R) who at one time ran for both President and United States Senate in the state of Illinois. Mr. Newsom is polling consistently with previous Democratic general election candidates tested soon after the statewide primary and underscores Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s weaker showing (36-18%) opposite fellow Democrat Kevin de Leon.
Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest survey (6/11-12; 600 AZ likely Republican primary voters) and finds a major change in the Senate primary scheduled for August 28th. According to OH, Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) has opened up a 39-24-14% lead over former state Senator and 2016 US Senate candidate Kelli Ward, and ex- Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Previously, Ms. McSally’s advantage was considerably more tenuous. The Republican primary winner will face Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), the consensus Democratic candidate, in the general election. Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is not seeking re-election.
A brand new Marquette University Law School poll (6/13-17; 800 WI registered voters) finds Republican businessman Kevin Nicholson recording a 37-32% primary lead over state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), the officially endorsed Republican Party candidate. Several polls have recently been released for this race, with a least one survey projecting Ms. Vukmir to the lead. This independent poll might be giving us our best snapshot into how the primary is progressing. The Wisconsin primary is August 14th. The winner challenges first-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the general election.
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