Quinnipiac University surveyed the post-primary Virginia electorate (6/21-24; 1,082 VA registered voters) and found Sen. Tim Kaine (D) leading Prince William County Board chairman Corey Stewart (R) by a substantial 54-36% margin. The results are not surprising, as Sen. Kaine is rated a big favorite for re-election. The Senator is strongest among Democrats (95-1%), Independents (54-34%), and women (62-28%). Mr. Stewart draws 82% support among Republicans (versus 8% defecting to Sen. Kaine), and breaks even among men, 45-45%.
Survey USA went into the field in the Land of Enchantment (6/19-23; 553 NM likely voters) and found US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) leading her congressional colleague, US Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), by a 51-38% margin.
Ms. Grisham leads across the board, but there was a big difference among those who are registered with a certain party but answered differently when asked about political party affiliation. Among those registered as Decline to State, for example, Ms. Grisham scored a ten-point advantage, 42-32%. But looking at the respondents who claim to affiliate with the Independents, the two candidates were tied at 36% support. Four key issue areas broke almost evenly when the pollsters asked the New Mexico respondents about points of greatest concern. The sample group divided fairly evenly among Education (26%), Immigration (21%), Jobs (19%), and Crime (17%). Earlier in June (6/15-16; 1,199 NM registered voters), the Carroll Strategies organization polled the state and found Ms. Grisham’s lead to be a similar 51-42%. Originally in this election cycle ten Democrats were running for Governor, but now the field has now dwindled to just two. Businessman Guy Smith, who did not participate in the party nominating convention because he said he would qualify for the ballot via petition signatures yesterday failed to meet the minimum standard. Therefore, the August 14th Democratic primary now evolves to only businessman and former US Senate candidate Ned Lamont, the officially endorsed candidate, and Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim.
Mr. Lamont is heavily favored to win the Democratic primary. Though Mr. Ganim has been elected five times as Bridgeport’s Mayor, he was also convicted for public corruption and spent seven years in federal prison. Still, he managed to win the mayoral post again in 2015, and now enters the statewide campaign. Five Republicans are competing for the GOP nomination. The general election appears surprisingly competitive. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is retiring after two terms in office. Three weeks after Californians voted in their jungle primary, a second place finisher in the state’s 48th District has finally been declared. Businessman Harley Rouda (D) will advance into the general election and oppose 15-term Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa) in the general election. The final count gives Mr. Rouda a 126-vote lead, and the third place finisher, biomedical company CEO Hans Keirstead (D), announced that he will not ask for a re-count and has endorsed Mr. Rouda. The final uncertified account gives Mr. Rouda 30,099 votes as compared to Mr. Keirstead’s, 29,973. Rep. Rohrabacher finished first with 52,734 tallies. The 48th District jungle primary attracted 16 candidates. The race is rated as a Toss-up for the fall campaign.
Just two weeks after state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerfield) denied US Rep. Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) re-nomination in the Republican primary, she was seriously injured in a car accident that caused the person at fault to perish. Ms. Arrington is expected to fully recover from the crash, but will likely endure two surgeries and spend some time away from the campaign trail while she recuperates. In response, Democratic nominee Joe Cunningham said he would suspend his campaign efforts while Ms. Arrington begins the healing process. She is expected to win the seat in November and hold the seat in the Republican column.
CBS News and the YouGov polling organization again teamed up to survey several US Senate races. The first poll tested a potential general election campaign pitting US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) against the three Republican candidates. The one GOP candidate performing best, unsurprisingly, is her Tucson Republican colleague, Martha McSally. Primary polling suggests that the two US House members are the current favorites to advance into the general election from the impending August 28th primary.
The Arizona poll (6/19-22; 1,001 AZ registered voters) finds Ms. Sinema leading Rep. McSally, 45-37%. If former state Sen. Kelli Ward were the Republican nominee, Rep. Sinema’s lead is a similar 46-38%. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio fares the worst. Against Rep. Sinema, he would trail 49-29%. The Arizona general election Senate race is predicted to be one of the most important contests in the country. A day after we reported that the new Public Policy Polling survey (6/18-19; 1,308 FL registered voters; automated) found Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) 48-46% in their impending US Senate race, the CBS News/YouGov poll (6/19-22; 1,002 FL registered voters) reports a different order. According to the latter study, Gov. Scott maintains a 46-41% advantage. As we mentioned yesterday, this race has seesawed for weeks, and we expect more of the same all the way to Election Day.
The final of the released CBS News/YouGov polls surveyed the Texas electorate, testing Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), the respective Republican and Democratic US Senate nominees. According to this poll (6/19-22; 1,030 TX registered voters), Sen. Cruz has a 50-40% advantage. This result is in line with many other released polls that find the Senator holding an advantage in a similar range.
A new Remington Research Group poll (6/20-21; 703 NY-11 likely Republican primary voters) finds Rep. Dan Donovan (R-Staten Island), after trailing in the last published poll, rebounding to post a 47-40% advantage over former Congressman and convicted felon Michael Grimm (R). The New York federal primary is tomorrow, and the 11th District primary campaign is one of the more interesting contests on the statewide ballot.
Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery), who finds herself in a run-off election with lagging favorability ratings largely because of past negative comments uttered about President Trump, got a boost for her nomination race election against former Democratic Congressman Bobby Bright, who is now a Republican. The President announced his public support for Rep. Roby over the weekend, citing Mr. Bright’s support for then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) when he served his lone term in the House from 2009-11. The Republican run-off election is July 17th.
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