The Maine instant run-off system, more than a week past the primary election, has finally declared a winner in the Democratic primary. First place finisher Janet Mills, the state’s appointed Attorney General, will now officially face businessman Shawn Moody (R) in the general election.
It appears, however, that all other six candidates were eliminated in order to produce a majority for Ms. Mills. Her final victory count is reported as 54-46% over businessman Adam Cote, who also finished second in the primary. The ranked voter system requires the state officials to continually drop the last place finisher and then disperse that candidate’s ranked votes to the others until someone wins with majority support. With more than a week of post-election counting, the instant run-off system did not change the original primary order. A previously mentioned Marquette University Law School poll (see Wisconsin Senate above) finds Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers opening up a commanding Democratic primary lead over his nine tested opponents for the August 14th Democratic primary. According to Marquette, Mr. Evers scores 25% support in comparison to the other candidates, with the next closest finishers, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin and former state Democratic Party chairman Matt Flynn, each only pulling 7% preference.
In a general election pairing with Gov. Scott Walker (R), Mr. Evers trails the two-term incumbent, 48-44%. A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey for the Valley News Service (6/13-15; 625 ND registered voters via live interview) finds at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) leading first-term Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48-44% on the statewide count.
Sen. Heitkamp has an advantage in the eastern part of the state, 47-44%, and runs up her score in the city of Fargo and Cass County. There, the Senator holds a substantial 54-35% margin. But, Congressman Cramer more than compensates for his deficit in the central and western sectors of North Dakota. He dominates in his home region in and around Bismarck, where he posts a 56-37% mark. In the western sector, he records a commensurate support level, 57-38%. The special 5th Congressional District Democratic Party endorsing convention met on Sunday and voted to officially support state Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to replace Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis) who is now running for state Attorney General. The hastily called convention drew the ire of many candidates and delegates, as the meeting was held on Father’s Day. Rep. Omar easily won the party endorsement on the second ballot, but two of the candidates, former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and engineer Jamal Abdulahi, did not even compete. The two will directly proceed to the August 14th primary ballot, as will state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray (D-Minneapolis), who lost the endorsement to Mr. Omar.
Previously, the endorsing conventions seemed to control the Minnesota nomination process as most candidates ended their political quest if they lost at the party convention. This year is much different, however, as primaries in both parties are being initiated in virtually all competitive statewide and congressional district races. Through referendum, Maine voters instituted an “instant run-off” process to ensure political party nominees obtain a majority vote, but the new program’s first test has been anything but “instant.” On June 12th, Democratic primary voters cast 33% of their gubernatorial ballots for appointed Attorney General Janet Mills, but she did not yet win. Businessman and Iraq War veteran Adam Cote is second with 29% support, while lobbyist Betsy Sweet scored 16%. Former state House Speaker Mark Eves was next at 14%, followed by state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Portland), 4%, former Portland state Rep. Diane Russell at 2%, and ex-Biddeford Mayor Donna Dion posting 1%. The succeeding candidates are important because their supporters are key to who eventually is declared the party nominee.
In a long counting process that began after the election and found irregularities in five towns, the Secretary of State’s office is now completing the ranked vote tabulation. When a person now votes in Maine, they are asked to rank the candidates by level of support from 2nd through 8th, in this case. Now, the last place finisher, Ms. Dion, is dropped and her first place ballots are found and those ranked choices then dispersed to the other seven. If all are still below 50% support, Ms. Russell would be eliminated and her ranked votes dispersed, and so on until one of the candidates captures a majority. The laborious process may finally end as early as today, with the winner earning the right to challenge businessman Shawn Moody who won the Republican nomination outright. The final tabulation will be of interest to political observers who want to examine the instant run-off system in actual practice. We have seen a number of Sunshine State Democratic gubernatorial primary polls in the past few months, but most of them have been conducted for Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and produced rather substantial leads for the survey sponsor. Now, the “Let’s Preserve the American Dream” organization conducted what appears to be an independent Democratic electorate poll and sees a much closer race.
The survey (6/5-9; 800 FL likely Democratic primary voters) still finds Mayor Levine topping the Democratic field, but he leads former US Rep. Gwen Graham only 24-21%. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is next with 11%, while Orlando businessman Chris King has 4% support, and wealthy businessman Jeff Greene attracts 3 percent. The previous Levine polls showed a double-digit support difference between he and Ms. Graham. Special election candidates Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville), a state Senator, and Danny O’Connor (D), the Franklin County Recorder, continue moving forward to their August 7th decision day. JMC Analytics just released their latest poll (6/13-16; 500 OH-12 likely special election voters who completed the ten-question survey) and found Sen. Balderson leading Mr. O’Connor, 46-35%. This tracks with the previously released Monmouth University poll (6/7-10; 501 OH-12 likely special election voters) that found Sen. Balderson holding a 43-33% district-wide advantage.
Sen. Balderson’s favorability index is 29:21% positive to negative. Mr. O’Connor’s is a similar 24:13%. This contrasts with President Trump’s 54:40% job approval rating and Gov. John Kasich’s (R) 43:36%. A new Democratic Senate Majority PAC survey (Global Strategy Group; 6/11-13; 804 MO likely voters) finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) moving into her strongest position within this current election cycle. Recovering from hits taken during former Governor Eric Greitens’ (R) extra-marital affair scandal that forced him from office prior to impeachment and being charged with felonies, Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) has now fallen behind Sen. McCaskill, 47-41%, according to the GSG results. Previous polls have shown a much closer race, a spread usually in the plus or minus two percentage point range.
Likely due to his handling of the Greitens scandal and removal from office, Mr. Hawley’s personal favorability index dropped to 21:29% positive to negative. By contrast, Sen. McCaskill registers 47:45%. The Restoration PAC released a new Hodes & Associates survey of the Wisconsin Senate Republican primary (6/7-12; 600 WI likely GOP primary voters) that again stakes businessman Kevin Nicholson to a lead over state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield). Once more, we also see a very large undecided segment as the candidates continue moving toward the August 14th primary election. According to Hodes, Mr. Nicholson sports a 28-14% advantage over Sen. Vukmir, who is the officially endorsed Republican candidate, while more than 57% of the respondents remain undecided. This poll is consistent with others previously released, and shows that little movement has occurred during the past several weeks.
The short two-week Republican gubernatorial run-off cycle is already half over, and the first post-primary poll has just been released. The Trafalgar Group went into the field right after the June 12th primary (6/13-14; 1,000 GOP likely run-off voters) and found Gov. Henry McMaster opening up a commanding 60.1 – 36.2% margin over businessman John Warren. The pollsters included those respondents who are reported as “leaning” to a particular candidate. The June 26th winner, presumably Gov. McMaster, then faces state Rep. James Smith (D-Columbia) who clinched the Democratic nomination on primary night.
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