A new Garden State poll from the Monmouth University Polling Institute (4/16-19; 704 NJ Adults; 635 NJ registered voters) finds no lasting political side effects from Sen. Cory Booker’s failed run for the Democratic presidential nomination. In hypothetical general election matchups, Sen. Booker would lead Republican Rik Mehta, 55-32%, and enjoys an even larger 58-33% margin over GOP candidate Hirsh Singh. These numbers suggest the obvious, that Sen. Booker is safe for re-election.
We’re soon going to learn much more about the Utah Governor’s race. The Republicans are in their virtual convention as delegates are voting online for candidates running in various campaigns. Under Utah nominating procedure, the parties meet in convention and send candidates to the ballot. If a candidate receives 60% of the delegate vote, he or she is the only candidate who will advance to the primary. If no one receives 60%, then the top two finishing candidates will qualify. The other way to gain primary ballot access is through the petition process, but candidates have the option of participating in both the convention and filing petition signatures.
Former Gov. Jon Huntsman, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright are the only candidates who are both gathering petition signatures and participating in the convention. The remainder, businessman Jeff Burningham, ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes, Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton, and conservative activist Jason Christensen are going through the convention process only, meaning many, if not all of these contenders, will be eliminated on Saturday. The online voting will continue through Saturday afternoon, with the results announced that evening. A series of pollsters conducted several recent surveys in some of President Trump’s core and swing states. The just-published results suggest that all are turning former Vice President Joe Biden’s way. Fox News, Ipsos, and Quinnipiac University were all in the field during the April 15-21 period, interviewing voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida.
The latter state, one of the most important for President Trump, finds him trailing Mr. Biden, 46-42%, according to Quinnipiac University. Mr. Biden leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by eight (Michigan; both Fox News and Ispos), eight and six (Pennsylvania; Fox News and Ispos), and three (Wisconsin; Ipsos) percentage points. We’ll begin observing the numbers more seriously when the candidates are able to resume active campaigning. Then, we will have a better idea if Mr. Biden’s early advantages are reliable and strong. A new Fox News Michigan poll (4/18-21; 801 MI registered voters) finds Sen. Gary Peters (D) taking a major leap forward in his competitive battle with manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger John James (R), a race that had been polling close. The Fox Poll finds Sen. Peters expanding his single-digit lead to a full ten points, in a 46-36% margin.
It is difficult to determine just how the electorate is affected by the Coronavirus situation; therefore, it will take much more polling data to determine if any longer-term political patterns are developing. Attorney and former congressional aide Antone Melton-Meaux appears to be making some political moves to become a legitimate Democratic primary opponent for controversial freshman Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). Mr. Melton-Meaux is attacking Rep. Omar for not even visiting parts of her geographically small urban district, saying she is not as interested in representing her constituents as she is in promoting her own personal image and national political profile.
For his part, Mr. Melton-Meaux raised almost $500,000 prior to the March 31st campaign finance deadline and showed just under $200,000 cash-on-hand. Conversely, Rep. Omar has attracted almost $3.9 million for the election cycle and has just over $1.3 million remaining in her account. The Minnesota Democratic primary is August 11th. Three other Democrats are also headed to the district nominating convention. It is unclear at this point just how many of the candidates will choose to force a primary after the convention concludes. As we’ve seen in other states, a Colorado judge has awarded a US Senate candidate Democratic primary ballot position even though the petition signature requirement was not met. The judge ruled on a lawsuit against the state that candidate Michelle Ferrigno Warren, who collected approximately 5,400 of the 10,500 required signatures according to a Colorado Politics blog post, is granted a ballot position because, the judge said, she demonstrated sufficient voter support when considering the COVID-19 imposed stay-at-home and social distancing restrictions.
Ms. Ferrigno Warren joins former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff on the US Senate Democratic ballot for the June 30th primary election. The eventual Democratic nominee then faces Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in November. Mississippi is a state that should be a lock for President Trump this November, but an early poll returns numbers that may indicate a bit of weakness on the Republican side. The survey, from Chism Strategies (4/8-9; 508 MS likely voters), finds President Trump securely in the lead with a 49-38% point spread, but that is significantly below his 2016 victory margin of 58-40%. Republican candidates typically under-poll in the South as compared to their actual vote margins, so this could partially account for the Trump margin being lower than four years ago.
While new data finds President Trump a bit below what he might expect to score in Mississippi, the same could be said for former Vice President Joe Biden in a newly released Washington State poll. EMC Research, though conducting the poll over the March 31 – April 6 period (473 WA registered voters), just yesterday made their results public. The data projects Mr. Biden to be holding a 52-39% advantage, slightly below what one might expect in a strongly Democratic state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the state with a 53-37 victory percentage.
Mr. Biden under-performed here in the primary, just nipping Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 38-37%, even though all of the other major candidates had already exited the race. Though President Trump will not target Washington, the Biden primary performance and this first poll suggests slight political weakness on his part. Originally, the Peach State presidential primary was scheduled for March 24th as a stand-alone vote but then became united with the May 19th state primary as part of Georgia’s Coronavirus precautions, and also because the Democratic race was virtually decided. Later, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), acting under an Emergency Order, moved the primary to June 9th, with any associated runoff election postponed to August 11th. Now, a group of activists have filed a lawsuit asking that the election be moved to a date no earlier than June 30th, with the plaintiffs saying that it is not safe to hold the election any earlier.
On the eve of the Michigan candidate filing deadline, a federal judge ruled in a favor of a Republican plaintiff who argued that the 1,000-person petition signature per congressional district requirement was too stringent when considering the state’s imposed Coronavirus precautions. The judge moved the filing deadline to May 8th and cut the congressional district signature requirement to 500 qualified voters.
Immediately after the ruling became public, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), and the state elections director appealed the decision. Since the April 21st deadline has already passed, clearly the state will have a new filing schedule, but the number of signatures will now be considered at the Appellate Court level. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|