State Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) has developed a large resource advantage over his Republican primary opponent, US Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron), and his edge is about to get sharper. The new FEC disclosure filings find Mr. Feenstra with a $415,651 cash-on-hand reserve for the stretch drive to the June 2nd primary compared to Rep. King’s $26,773. Overall, Sen. Feenstra has raised $844,000 compared to Mr. King’s $301,000. Now the Main Street PAC has announced they are launching a $100,000 get-out-the-vote effort to assist Mr. Feenstra even further.
Rep. King got into political hot water over racially oriented comments that resulted in him being stripped of his committee assignments last year. Three other Republicans are also on the ballot. If no candidate receives 35% of the vote, a district convention will be convened to decide the nomination. The new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey (4/13-15; 900 US registered voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by seven percentage points, 49-42%. Looking back to a commensurate time in 2016, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the 4/10-14/16 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll during that period found former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) leading candidate Donald Trump (R) by eleven percentage points, 50-39%.
It remains to be seen if the Trump polling pattern will resume the same trajectory that unfolded in 2016. Over the weekend, Colorado Democrats met in their virtual state convention and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff overwhelmingly won his ballot position against the field of candidates, capturing 86% of the delegates votes. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, the favorite for the party nomination to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R), did not participate in the convention having already secured his ballot position through the petition signature process.
The convention result means that Messrs. Romanoff and Hickenlooper will meet in the Democratic primary on June 30th where the latter man is a heavy favorite. The Colorado Senate election will be one of the top national contests in November. The Change Research organization conducted a rare poll of the Indiana electorate (4/10-13; 1,021 IN likely voters) and the results find first-term Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) in strong position against former Indiana Health Commissioner Woody Myers (D). The totals find Gov. Holcomb leading Mr. Myers, 45-25%, with Libertarian Donald Rainwater capturing 8% support.
The Indiana primary is not until June 2nd, but the gubernatorial race is already set. Mr. Myers is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Gov. Holcomb faces only token Republican primary opposition. The Arizona Secretary of State just slotted for ballot placement the US House candidates who met the April 6th filing requirements. From the nine congressional seats, there appears only three situations where competitive races could develop.
In the expansive 1st District that occupies most of eastern Arizona, two-term Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) seeks a third term. He has drawn Democratic primary opposition from former Flagstaff City Councilwoman Eva Putzova, though her $40,444 cash-on-hand figure at the end of the first quarter suggests she will not conduct a major campaign. In the general election, Republican attorney and former congressional candidate Tiffany Shedd looks to be the strongest candidate, but the term may be relative. The latest campaign financial statements find her holding just over $180,000, but she has a $295,140 debt of which only $66,140 is owed to herself. The nature of the district suggests this could be a top tier challenger race, but the campaign will have to develop to a much greater degree for Rep. O’Halleran to lapse into a toss-up race. When Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Tucson), after representing this district for less than a full term, announced she was taking a leave of absence to fight alcoholism, it appeared she might face a difficult challenge for re-election. Though she drew one Democratic opponent and four Republicans, none appear to be waging the type of effort capable of unseating Ms. Kirkpatrick. The big race of the year appears to be in the formerly safe Republican 6th District. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) is seeking a sixth term after winning his closest re-election in 2018 (55-45%, against a candidate spending less than $400,000) and being under an ethics investigation for allegedly improperly using government resources to augment his political campaign. Before a changing electorate with a potentially compromised incumbent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni (D), who ran a competitive race in the 8th District special election, has jumped over to the Scottsdale area to challenge Mr. Schweikert. Already raising over $1.7 million, and holding more than $1.2 million in her account, Dr. Tipirneni has raised more than any Arizona congressional candidate during this election cycle and certainly more than Rep. Schweikert’s $1.1 million. Expect the 6th District race to be Arizona’s premier top tier contest. The Sunshine State of Florida is one of the country’s quintessential swing states, and a new poll suggests that the voting entity is already in toss-up mode for the presidential race. St. Pete Polls conducted a statewide survey during the April 16-17 period (5,659 FL registered voters via automated response device) and found former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump in a virtual tie, 48-47%, with the edge going to the former.
St. Pete Polls does not have a particularly strong accuracy record – they rate a C+ from the FiveThirtyEight organization that rates all survey research firms – but considering the Florida political climate, the results appear reasonable. Chances are good that President Trump’s standing is a bit better here, however. Over the past few elections the Republican candidates have under-polled from 1-3 points suggesting that such could well again be the case. The Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled in favor of plaintiffs arguing that the state’s ballot petition requirements are too high considering the COVID-19 precautions being in effect. The ruling greatly helps Sen. Ed Markey (D) because reports were indicating his campaign was lagging behind in even reaching the minimum number of 15,000 valid petition signatures. His Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton), according to campaign spokespeople, has already submitted more than 30,000 signatures.
The new signature requirement assuredly means that the Senate primary will move forward and Sen. Markey will not be disqualified on a technicality. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) on Friday signed legislation that allows Alaska election officials to conduct any election scheduled for 2020 exclusively through the mail. This could mean the general election will be conducted via mail as well as the August 18th state primary. The presidential primary, which was administered that way, was held April 11th and awarded former Vice President Joe Biden a 55-45% victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). This contest was held just prior to Sanders’ announcement that he was withdrawing from the race.
On Wednesday, the Republican firm Harper Polling released their North Carolina survey that gave first term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) a 38-34% edge over former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), as we covered yesterday. Now, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic pollster, has released very different numbers. In their survey (4/14-15; 1,318 NC registered voters via interactive voice response system and text), PPP finds Mr. Cunningham holding a seven-point lead over Sen. Tillis, 47-40%.
With such disparate polling numbers within similar time frames, it is clear that this contest is already in the Toss-up realm and will likely continue to be so all the way to the November election. North Star Opinion Research just released a poll they completed during mid-March (3/15-17; GA-6 registered voters via live interviews) and found former US Rep. Karen Handel (R) developing a small lead over freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta).
The Congresswoman, who unseated Ms. Handel in 2018, trails her former opponent by a slim two-point margin, 49-47%, while the generic vote question split evenly between the two sides with each party being the choice of 46% of the sample respondents. Perhaps the most significant finding for Ms. Handel was her 50-42% margin among self-identified Independents. This race should be considered a toss-up. |
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