The originally scheduled March 17th Ohio primary concludes today, and mostly through the mail. All ballots are due into the government offices by close of business today, meaning we will see nominees chosen for all 16 of the state’s congressional districts.
Each of the 16 House incumbents are running for re-election, but only one has a significant primary challenge: Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus). She faces former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official Morgan Harper who had raised more than $771,000 for his challenge campaign at the end of March. Rep. Beatty, however, attracted over $1.8 million. Primary battles are occurring in most districts for the right to challenge an incumbent in the general election. The most interesting may be in the southwestern Ohio 1st District where two well-funded Democratic candidates, healthcare company executive Kate Schroder and engineer Nikki Foster, oppose each other for the opportunity of challenging veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) in the Fall campaign. The Utah state Republican and Democratic virtual nominating conventions were held over the weekend, and we now have contenders for the open 1st District primary that is scheduled for June 30th. Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) is retiring after nine terms but will still be on the ballot as former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright’s running mate for Lt. Governor. Mr. Wright faces Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, and ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes in the gubernatorial primary.
In the congressional race, the convention delegates voted former state Agriculture Commissioner and ex-state legislator Kerry Gibson and retired foreign service officer Barry Moore into the Republican primary. Already qualified through the petition signature process were Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt. Therefore, we will see a four-way GOP primary at the end of June. For the Democrats, the convention delegates sent Shoshone Indian Tribe chairman Darren Perry and vocation rehabilitation administrator Jamie Cheek into the primary election. No one used the petition signature process on the Democratic side. The GOP winner will be the prohibitive favorite in November from this 50-22% Trump district. Democratic convention delegates gave almost 90% of their votes to freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City), who defends his congressional seat for the first time. By rule, the convention sends only one candidate to the primary election if the individual’s vote total exceeds 60 percent. Since no one qualified via petition signature, Rep. McAdams is automatically re-nominated.
A total of four Republicans will be on the June 30th ballot for what will be a highly competitive general election campaign. State Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan) and businessman and former NFL football player Burgess Owens advance to the primary ballot from the convention process. Mr. Owens also qualified through petition signatures. Qualifying only through petitions were radio talk show host Jay Mcfarland and non-profit organization CEO Trent Christensen. The Republican primary election winner then advances to face Rep. McAdams in November. Utah Republicans and Democrats conducted their virtual nominating conventions over the weekend and we now have a Republican primary slate and a Democratic nominee.
The convention delegates sent Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes to the Republican primary after five rounds of voting. Former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, who was eliminated in the convention’s second round, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright have qualified for the primary through the petition signature option, however. The winner of the four-candidate June 30th primary election will face law professor Chris Peterson who captured 88% of the convention vote and clinched outright the Democratic nomination. Republican Gov. Gary Herbert is retiring. Additionally, Gov. Herbert signed emergency legislation on Friday converting the Utah June 30th primary to an all-mail format. There will be no in-person voting for this primary. Previously, Gov. Doug Burgum (R) issued an executive order allowing each county to decide if they wanted to convert to an all-mail June 9th primary. Like in Montana, which was operating under a similar order, all 53 North Dakota county clerks have opted for the all-mail format. Therefore, Montana and North Dakota will join the all-mail states at least for the upcoming primary election.
A new WPA Intelligence poll finds state Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Daniel Island) establishing a clear lead for the Republican nomination and toward an eventual challenge to freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-Charleston). This will be a national campaign because SC-1 is a district that Republicans must re-claim if they are to have any chance of taking the majority in the 2020 election. The WPA poll finds Rep. Mace leading Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing 42-13% in the Republican primary, which remains scheduled for June 9th. If no candidate receives a majority vote, the top two finishers advance to a quick June 23rd runoff election.
Former three-term Congressman Alan Grayson (D) has had a colorful political career. First elected in Florida’s 8th CD in 2008, he was defeated for re-election in 2010. He then returned after reapportionment and redistricting to win a newly created 9th District, where he served two terms before running unsuccessfully for the Democratic US Senate nomination in 2016.
In 2018, he returned to challenge the man who succeeded him in the 9th District, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). Mr. Grayson would lose that Democratic primary, 66-34%. Now, in 2020, he will again run for the House, but this time as a write-in candidate against freshman Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Acknowledging he has virtually no chance of being elected, Grayson says he is running to deny Rep. Waltz the ability to send franked mail during the blackout period immediately preceding the election. Two Democrats filed against Congressman Waltz, so it is unclear why Mr. Grayson thinks only his candidacy would trigger the franked mail prohibition. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami), who recovered from Coronavirus within the past month, has effectively won a new term in the House. No one submitted documents to oppose him when the candidate filing deadline expired on April 24th, so under Florida election law and procedure the race will not even appear on the ballot. Thus, Rep. Diaz-Balart is re-elected to a 10th term by default.
The Kentucky Senate race, featuring the incumbent Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot and defeated congressional candidate Amy McGrath (D), will likely set a spending record for a state with only six congressional districts. At this point, challenger McGrath has already spent over $15 million (raised a whopping $29.9 million with $14.8 million cash-on-hand). Sen. McConnell had spent over $10 million at the March 31st financial reporting deadline (raised $25.5 million; $15 million remaining in account), meaning that the Kentucky race will reach California (53 congressional districts) spending levels.
Each side will also see outside organizations coming in to spend as much as $10 million apiece on top of the candidate spending. This is clearly going to be an overkill campaign. Though it is still only April, and with the candidate filing deadline still a couple of weeks away on May 1st for the August 25th primary, it appears Republicans have their consensus congressional nominee to challenge freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Miami). Yesterday, businesswoman Irina Vilarino announced that she is ending her congressional effort, meaning that Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez remains the only major candidate in the Republican primary. This, along with an already announced endorsement from President Trump, virtually clinches the party nomination for Mr. Gimenez and effectively allows the general election to begin early. The Mucarsel-Powell/Gimenez campaign will be highly competitive.
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