Pennsylvania: Casey’s Lead Diminishing: Two new polls are suggesting that the Pennsylvania Senate race is getting closer. Susquehanna Research just released a statewide survey completed in early March (2/27-3/5; 450 PA likely voters; live interview) that projects Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) by a 48-42% margin. The result is virtually the same as the firm found in January (Casey leading 46-42%), but considerably different than the twelve point Casey advantage they detected in their survey from ten months ago.
Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper (3/10-13; 1,000 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees an even tighter 52-48% margin when the undecided respondents are pushed for an answer. While the current tendencies appear to give Mr. McCormick’s some momentum, the voter history, and legacy of the Casey family – aside from Sen. Casey winning three US Senate terms, the incumbent’s father, Bob Casey, Sr., served two terms as Governor and eight years as Attorney General – suggest upending the Senator remains a very tall order. Texas: Cruz’s Zig Zag Polling Pattern: The latest Texas statewide survey finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) only by a relatively small margin. Marist College (3/18-21; 1,117 TX registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Cruz holding a 51-45% advantage over Mr. Allred. A month ago, the University of Texas found the Senator holding a 12-point lead. In January, Emerson College saw Mr. Cruz claiming only a two-point edge. It would not be surprising to see a similar zig-zag pattern continue through the bulk of the election period. Because Sen. Cruz’s favorability numbers tend to be below average for a two-term incumbent, the issue matrix within this campaign cycle, particularly in Texas, will favor the Republican office holder. Though Rep. Allred is certainly a credible Democratic challenger it is difficult to see Sen. Cruz, or any Lone Star State Republican, losing. President Biden leading the Democratic ticket and having to defend his energy and border policy stances in a state where his party hasn’t scored a major statewide win since 1994 increases the difficulty factor for a Democratic upset at all political levels. Therefore, expect to see differing polls throughout the campaign cycle, but the actual election will likely culminate in a Cruz victory margin of at least five percentage points. Comments are closed.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|