Arizona: Emerson College Shows a Tightening Race: Emerson College released a new two-way poll of the Arizona Senate race, their first since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) announced she would not seek re-election. The survey (3/12-15; 1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects the new Arizona Senate race dropping to within the polling margin of error between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. The ballot test finds Mr. Gallego holding a 44-40% lead, which is approaching the toss-up realm.
Within the same polling sample, former President Donald Trump leads President Biden, 48-44%, which is bad news obviously for Mr. Biden, but also for Ms. Lake. With the data showing Mr. Trump leading the Republican ticket in the Grand Canyon State, her standing trails him by a full eight percentage points. While Emerson tested only Biden and Trump and did not include the independent or third party candidates, they did push the undecided respondents to make a choice. When doing so, Trump would lead the aggregate count 52-48%, suggesting the undecideds, which are good prospects to support one of the minor candidates, would break evenly between the two men. Rep. Gallego has an edge among the youngest and the oldest respondents in the sample. He is also rather surprisingly favored, 43-38%, among those who said the economy is their top issue. Ms. Lake is favored by a whopping 77-12% margin among those who are most concerned about the southern border. Maryland: Ex-Gov. Hogan Building Lead: The University of Maryland partnering with the Washington Post released a new survey of the Maryland Senate race (3/5-12; 1,004 MD registered voters; live interview & text) that shows former Republican Governor Larry Hogan building a strong lead in this most Democratic of states. According to the ballot test Mr. Hogan leads US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) 47-39%, while his lead would expand to 50-36% if Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) were his general election opponent. Mr. Hogan also enjoys an extremely positive 64:23% favorability index, while Rep. Trone scores 33:21% favorable to unfavorable, and Ms. Alsobrooks records a 26:15% ratio. Despite Mr. Trone so far outspending Ms. Alsobrooks by a 12:1 ratio ($24 million to $2 million), he leads the Democratic primary ballot test only 34-27% according to this survey. Considering the lopsided spending amount, the ballot test suggests that Rep. Trone is at least slightly underperforming as a statewide candidate. Comments are closed.
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