AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff: As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5th, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39% count. Mr. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43%.
The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Senator Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42% victory. In the March 5th primary, Mr. Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Ms. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by over twelve percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third place finisher. Like Mr. Figures, Ms. Dobson will now advance into the November 5th general election. Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM: While Senator Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Governor Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open Governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.
The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it's addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick. Arizona: Trump Leading Despite Abortion Ruling: With the Arizona state Supreme Court upholding a more than century old abortion law after the US Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (4/7-11; 400 AZ likely general election voters; live interview & text).
According to the poll analysis, the heavy coverage of the abortion issue in the state has not swayed the swing voters. While Democrats largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables,” do not. Therefore, President Biden is not gaining new votes according to this survey sample. Thus, the ballot test, which includes Trump, Biden, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Mr. Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1% margin, respectively. Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the national presidential election’s outcome Maryland: Trone Primary Lead Cut to 3 Points: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks released an internal US Senate Democratic primary poll (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found US Rep. David Trone’s (D-Potomac) lead dropping to only three points. Despite an overwhelming advantage in campaign spending – Trone had spent $24 million just through the end of 2023 – he has apparently not fully pulled away to secure the party nomination. In three independent March polls, Mr. Trone had chronological leads of 11, 12 and 7 points.
The final month of this intraparty battle will be intense. Because she knew her campaign would be badly outspent against the near-billionaire Trone, Ms. Alsobrooks saved her money until the final month. If the race has closed to within three points as this poll suggests, we can expect a major effort from both candidates down the stretch toward the May 14th Democratic primary election. The eventual party nominee will then face former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is becoming a competitive general election. AL-2: Congressional Runoffs Today: Alabama’s new court-ordered 2nd CD will host its runoff elections today for candidates in both parties. The seat was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, so the Democratic winner will have the inside track for the November general election.
On the Democratic side, former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures is favored in tonight’s vote over state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels. Mr. Figures outdistanced Rep. Daniels in the March 5th primary with a 43-22% vote margin. The Republican candidates are former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson. Mr. Brewbaker placed first in the GOP primary with 40% of the vote compared with Ms. Dobson’s 26%. The new 2nd District is 55.6% minority. African Americans comprise 48.7% of the total with Hispanics at 3.1%. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the AL-2 partisan lean at 53.6D – 45.2R, suggesting that while Democrats will be favored to convert this seat, Republicans will likely be active in attempting to hold the position. If the GOP is able to garner higher percentages among minorities, as some polls indicate, this district could feature a closer general election campaign. The new 2nd stretches from Mississippi to Georgia and is anchored in the state’s capital city of Montgomery. Indiana: Sen. Braun Increases Gov Lead: The latest Survey USA poll (conducted for the Howey Politics Indiana blog; 4/4-7; 447 IN likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Sen. Mike Braun (R) increasing his Republican primary lead in the open Governor’s race. This new ballot test shows Sen. Braun holding a 34 point lead over his closest competitor.
The numbers find Mr. Braun leading 44-10-8-8% over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden. The two March polls, from Crossroads Public Affairs and Emerson College, posted Sen. Braun with support preference totals of 34 and 33%. The eventual Republican nominee is a virtual lock to keep the open Governorship in the Republican column. Two-term incumbent Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Nevada: Brown Posts Big Primary Lead: A new Tarrance Group poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee produces good news for endorsed candidate Sam Brown, the businessman and Afghan War disabled veteran. The survey (4/7-10; 500 NV likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Brown posting 58% support. His closest opponent, former state Assemblyman and past Secretary of State and congressional nominee Jim Marchant, records only a 6% preference factor. Former US Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money to fund his candidacy, and former Lt. Governor candidate Tony Grady each have only 3% support.
Aside from yielding Mr. Brown highly positive reviews, the survey data returns bad news for Mr. Gunter. When the respondents were asked for their second choice in the race, Mr. Marchant posted 30% as opposed to Mr. Gunter’s 4 percent. The winner of the June 11th primary then challenges Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what will be a premier general election campaign. West Virginia: Justice Continues Holding Commanding Lead: Research America published the results of their early April survey (4/3-9; 400 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) that again sees Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a huge lead over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) as the two compete to succeed retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). As has been found in many other surveys, Research America pegs the Justice lead at 66-24% as the two enter the final month of campaigning. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th. Winning the West Virginia race in November is critical to Republican hopes of capturing the Senate, and the eventual Republican nominee should have little trouble converting the seat in the general election. Doing so would even the Senate’s partisan division at 50D-50R. CA-20: Fong tops Bourdeaux in Special Election Poll: Now that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has successfully defended the Secretary of State’s lawsuit attempting to prevent him from running in the regular term and simultaneously for state Assembly with last week’s appellate court ruling, we now see favorable Fong survey data.
The Assemblyman placed first in the March 19th special election primary with 42.3% of the vote in a field of nine jungle primary candidates. Also advancing into the May 21st special general election is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) who posted a 25.8% support figure. The special election winner will immediately be sworn into Congress and finish the term from which former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned. WPA Intelligence surveyed the 20th District (4/1-3; 400 CA-20 likely special election voters; live interview) and finds Mr. Fong leading Sheriff Bourdeaux by a 46-30% margin. He also has the advantage in three of the district’s four counties, Fresno, Kern, and Kings, while the latter man leads in his home of Tulare County. NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Trailing in Primary: A just released Global Strategy Group survey (4/1-4; 400 NJ-8 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), suffering the fallout from his father’s upcoming corruption trial, trailing Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) by a 33-28% margin with businessman Kyle Jasey (D) attracting 7% of the vote. With Sen. Bob Menendez (D) facing a jury trial in early May, even more attention will be paid to the Menendez family though Congressman Menendez is not accused of any wrongdoing. The Senator’s favorability index in the 8th District, however, has dropped to 22:69% favorable to unfavorable according to the GSG poll. Rep. Menendez is in much better position but barely in positive territory at 38:34%. Mayor Bhalla, not as well known, ties the Congressman on the favorable point at 38% positive, but his negative number is only 8 percent. This June 4th primary challenge continues to be rated as a highly competitive contest. California: Schiff Opens with Wide Advantage: While the open California Senate jungle primary ended with Republican Steve Garvey finishing just 3,518 votes behind US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) from more than 7.3 million ballots cast and placing first in the companion special election to fill the balance of the current term, the general election projection appears much different. The new Public Policy Institute of California survey (3/19-25; 1,089 CA likely voters; online) finds Rep. Schiff opening a large 61-37% preference spread over Mr. Garvey, a retired perennial baseball All-Star.
The results are both not surprising and consistent with California vote history. The Dave’s Redistricting App data organization, for example, calculates a strongly Democratic partisan lean for the Golden State, 63.0D-35.1R. The last Republican to win a major California statewide race was Pete Wilson in the Governor’s race back in 1994. Florida: Sen. Scott Leads in New Re-Election Survey: The latest Florida statewide survey from Emerson College (4/9-10; 1,000 FL registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), while posting former President Donald Trump to a 51-38% lead over President Biden, sees the Senate race slightly closer. In the latter ballot test, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R), seeking a second term after serving two four-year stints as Governor, posts a 45-38% edge over former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D). While the Scott advantage might be closer than many would have believed, the strong Republican trends present in the state just since Sen. Scott was elected six years ago, will help him expand the preference margin. For her part, Ms. Mucarsel Powell should be regarded as a weak candidate. While she won her South Florida congressional seat in the Democratic wave year of 2018, she lost it two years later to current Congressman Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) by a 52-48% margin in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App data organization calculated a 51.5D – 47.1R partisan lean. Minnesota: Sen. Klobuchar Up Comfortably: While the Survey USA poll that we covered yesterday showed President Biden edging Donald Trump by only a 44-42% spread, the Senate race looks much different. The poll (conducted for ABC affiliate KSTP-TV Channel 5 in St. Paul (4/3-7; 608 MN likely general election voters; online) posts Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) to a comfortable 51-34% advantage over banker and retired Navy officer Joe Fraser (R). While the presidential race may become competitive in Minnesota, it is unlikely that the Senate race will follow suit. Sen. Klobuchar will easily win a fourth term against weak GOP opposition. North Carolina: Conflicting Results: Two Tar Heel State gubernatorial polls have been released since the calendar turned to April, and the comparative results are not even close. First, Quinnipiac University (4/4-8; 1,401 NC registered voters; live interview) projects Attorney General Josh Stein (D) to be opening a 52-44% lead over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). This, while the same polling sample favors Donald Trump over President Biden by a 48-46% clip.
Two days later, the Cygnal research organization published their poll (4/7-8; 600 NC likely general election voters; live interview & text) and arrived at a much different conclusion for the open gubernatorial contest. While they forecast a similar 43-39% edge for Donald Trump in the presidential race, Cygnal projects Lt. Gov. Robinson to a 40-38% lead, or a net 18 percentage point different tally from Quinnipiac’s conclusion. The diverse results suggest a very close statewide race is unfolding, which is nothing new in North Carolina politics. |
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