Pew Research Center: Partisan Political Study: The Pew Research Center released an exhaustive report on American political partisanship (released 4/9/24; data collected 8/7-27/23; compared with similar results from 1994-2023) and finds that the country is at basic parity between Democrats and Republicans. Asking people if they consider themselves Democrats or Republicans, or lean to one party or the other, 49% identified with the Democrats while 48% sided with the Republicans.
The coalition division is stark. Democrats fare best (in order of strength) with blacks, religiously nonaffiliated, English speaking Asians, those born in the 1990s, Hispanics, urban residents, and women with a college degree. The support range is from a high of 83-12% (blacks) to 60-37% (women with a college degree). For Republicans, the coalition order of strength includes white evangelical Protestants, Mormons, white voters without a college degree, veterans, residents of rural communities, white men, and those born in the 1940s. The support range reaches from 85-14% (white evangelical Protestants) to 54-43% (those born in the 1940s). Montana: Sheehy Edges Tester in New Poll: JL Partners returned a poll for the Montana State News Bureau (3/26-29; 503 MT likely voters) and, for the first time this year, data shows the Republican challenger leading Sen. Jon Tester (D) as the latter man attempts to secure a fourth term.
The survey finds presumptive Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, an aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL, edging the Senator 48-45% in one of the most important races to determine the next Senate majority. The questionnaire did not contain a question about the presidential race, but Montana is again expected to be one of former President Trump’s strongest states. Thus, a favorable Republican turnout model will also elevate Sheehy’s chances. CA-20: Appeals Court Upholds Pro-Fong Ruling: A California appellate court yesterday upheld the lower court ruling that allowed Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) to compete in the congressional race after he was certified as a candidate for state Assembly. The Secretary of State barred Fong from entering the regular congressional primary under the premise that an individual cannot seek two public offices simultaneously. Through court ruling, Mr. Fong, in fact, did seek both offices, placing first in the congressional regular election and runoff, while running unopposed for the Assembly.
The appellate court ruling for the state would have sent the Central Valley political situation into chaos and, as the judges stated, would have invalidated a legitimate election. Such a move would have led to even more ambiguity, confusion, and additional special elections not only for the vacant US House seat, but also for Mr. Fong’s Assembly district should the Assemblyman successfully win the congressional special election set for May 21st. At this time, he is favored to win both the special and general election. Upon winning the special, Mr. Fong would immediately replace former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) who resigned. It is possible that Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) could still continue along the appellate process, hopefully, from her perspective, convincing the state Supreme Court to address the matter. Unless such happens, Mr. Fong is likely headed to Congress. FL-15: Candidate Comes Forth to Challenge Rep. Lee: In March, former President Donald Trump called upon Tampa Bay area Republicans to field a primary challenger to freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) because she endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the ’24 presidential campaign. Now, James Judge, who ran in the area’s 14th District against entrenched Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) in 2022, is answering the call and will switch districts. He began the ’24 election cycle attempting to challenge Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) in adjacent District 12. Rep. Lee should still be considered a heavy favorite. Mr. Judge, running in a D+14 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization recorded 43% of the vote against Rep. Castor. This is the type of performance one would expect for a Republican congressional nominee in such a Democratic district. Additionally, he spent just over $200,000 for that race, indicating he doesn’t have much fundraising ability, and a judge had to award him ballot placement in the 2022 election because he did not file the proper candidate forms which originally led to his disqualification. Rep. Lee was elected to the House with 59% of the vote in the last election from a district that 538 rates as R+7, but one that Trump carried only 51-48%. Prior to running for Congress, she served as a Circuit Court judge and as Secretary of State when Gov. DeSantis appointed her to the position. In 2022, she won a five-way open Republican primary by just under 14 points against her closest competitor. President Biden: Already Buying October Media: The Financial Times publication is reporting that the Biden for President committee has initially reserved more than $6 million of media time in October, with much more to come. The Trump campaign has yet to make any reservations in political prime time. The President’s campaign arm is taking advantage of buying early at the lowest cost and ensuring that their time is set.
In 2020, not doing this proved to be a major mistake for then-President Trump’s political operatives. The campaign had the early money advantage but did not book the time. Not doing so allowed the Biden campaign to outspend the Trump appartus in media advertising during political prime time in critical swing states like Arizona. Cornel West: Vying for CO Ballot Saturday: Dr. Cornel West is continuing his quest to access the ballot in important campaign states. He is competing this Saturday at the Unity Party convention in Colorado, vying to become the minor party’s Centennial State nominee in November. Dr. West is the Oregon Progressive Party nominee in the Beaver State. He is on the Aurora Party line in Alaska and will represent the United Citizens Party in South Carolina. He has also qualified as an Independent in Utah. Dr. West is actively attempting to gain ballot access in Florida, North Carolina, and Washington with a new Justice for All party that he founded. Petition signature gathering is underway in an additional 35 states. He failed to win the Peace & Freedom Party nomination on Super Tuesday in California. North Dakota: Party Conventions Endorse: Republican and Democratic state delegates met in convention over the weekend to endorse their candidates for the November election. The Republicans, despite outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R) endorsing Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) in the open Governor’s race, unanimously awarded the party endorsement to at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former North Dakota Republican Party chairman. The action was not a surprise, and Ms. Miller did not even attend the state party gathering. She will force a primary, however. LG Miller and Rep. Armstrong will compete for the gubernatorial nomination in the state’s June 11th primary election.
The Democrats also met, and they endorsed state Senator Merrill Piepkorn (D-Fargo), a well known country singer and radio personality in the state. Since there is no further intraparty opposition, Sen. Piepkorn is now the party’s official gubernatorial nominee. The Republican primary winner will have the inside track to clinching the office in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the state as R+37. CA-16: The Three-Way Outcome: Though official certification of the March 5th California primary will not occur until April 12th, it appears that the second general election position in the state’s 16th Congressional District will end in a tie. With no votes remaining to be counted, San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) both have garnered 30,249 votes. In first position is former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) with 38,489 tallies.
Under the top two California jungle primary law, in the case of a tie the deadlocked participants both advance to the general election. The state has no automatic recount law, but a candidate can request, and pay for, a recount of the ballots. It is highly unlikely that either Simitian or Low will call for a recount, however. At this point, both are in the general election and a recount would very likely change the outcome by a small number of votes. This means each would be rolling the dice that a new tally would favor them. The interesting part of this scenario, however, is whether Mr. Liccardo, the first place finisher will call for a recount. He is determining if a three-way race is to his benefit or squaring off with one of the others. Since he already placed first in the crowded field of eleven candidates, he will probably conclude that his chances are best in the three-way field. Therefore, this is a rare situation when the top two system actually produced three qualifiers. And, to make the outcome even rarer, all three are Democrats. CO-3: Two Qualify for Primary: Colorado Republicans met in a pair of local assemblies to potentially send candidates to the June 25th primary election. Under Colorado election procedure, a candidate can qualify for the ballot either by receiving at least 30% of the delegate vote at district assembly or petitioning onto the ballot with 1,500 signatures for a congressional race. A candidate can both participate in the assembly and obtain signatures. If a contender draws less than 10% of the assembly vote, he or she is disqualified from the primary. In Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) now open 3rd District, two individuals exceeded the 30% threshold, therefore securing primary ballot positions. Colorado Board of Education Member Stephen Varela and former state Representative Ron Hanks have earned the first and second ballot positions. Businessman Curtis McCrackin, who did not participate in the assembly, has qualified through petition signatures. Three more have submitted petitions and are awaiting certification from the Secretary of State. An additional three candidates failed to reach the 10% threshold at the district assembly and are disqualified. Democrat Adam Frisch, the 2022 candidate, who lost to Boebert by only 546 votes, is a virtual lock to again be his party’s nominee. CO-4: Boebert Tops GOP Assembly Vote: The big story surrounding the party assemblies comes from former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) open 4th District where 3rd District Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is attempting to win re-election in a new CD. Many believed she would not fare particularly well at the assembly, but a plurality of the 527 attending delegates proved them wrong. Ms. Boebert finished first inthe voting with 41% support, thus awarding her the first ballot position in the June 25th Republican primary. Former state Senator Ted Harvey, who many believed to be the favorite, finished with 26% of the delegate vote. Therefore, he did not qualify for the ballot. Since he did not circulate petitions, Mr. Harvey is eliminated. Several others will qualify through petition, meaning we will see a contested primary election in this district. West Virginia: Morrisey Stretches Lead in New Poll: WPA Intelligence released a survey for the Black Bear Super PAC, which supports Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) bid for Governor. The poll, (4/12-13; 501 WV likely Republican primary voters) sees the AG posting a 37-20-19-14% GOP primary advantage over former Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively.
The numbers and candidate order has remained consistent through three WPAi polls beginning with their first study in November. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th. Gov. Jim Justice (R), ineligible to seek a third term, is running for US Senate. The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track toward winning the general election. YouGov Poll: Tests Enthusiasm & Trump VP Choices: International online pollster YouGov, again polling for the Economist publication as they do on a regular basis, included questions about enthusiasm for President Biden and former President Trump, as well as favorability rating for eleven potential Republican Vice Presidential choices.
On the enthusiasm questions, as we have seen from primary turnout numbers across the country, President Biden has a major problem. Among self-identified Democrats in the latest YouGov national survey (3/30-4/2; 1,813 US adults; online) only 38% responded affirmatively that they are enthusiastic about Mr. Biden’s candidacy. Another 21% said they are dissatisfied with the President’s candidacy, with an additional 6% of Democrats confirming they are “upset” with the status of his campaign. A final 37% said they are satisfied with Biden, but not enthusiastic. Compared with former President Trump, 57% of Republicans said they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, 6% dissatisfied but not upset, 8% upset, while 26% say they are satisfied but not enthusiastic. On the Vice Presidential front, eleven prospects were tested. They are (alphabetically): Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH). Rating the candidates equally on their favorability indexes and awarding individual points for standing in the high favorable, low unfavorable, and best ratio between the two scores, the top finishers were Sen. Scott and Dr. Carson. Finishing dead last among the group, and the only candidate viewed with an upside down favorability index, is Ms. Haley. Though Gov. DeSantis is ineligible to serve as Vice President because both he and Mr. Trump reside in the same state, he was still included in the poll and fared well, placing just behind Messrs. Scott and Carson. CO-8: GOP Nomination Virtually Secured: Colorado Republicans from the Denver suburban 8th Congressional District met in caucus and advanced state Rep. Gave Evans (R-Westminster) into the general election with 62% delegate support. The other qualifier is state Rep. Janak Joshi, but he resides all the way south in Colorado Springs, far from the 8th District. Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo is now disqualified since he failed to reach the 10% threshold at the party convention. He was also circulating petitions to qualify, but those efforts are now discarded because he failed to reach the minimum delegate support threshold. Mr. Andujo then endorsed Rep. Evans at the convention. Very likely, we will now see Mr. Evans advancing from Colorado’s June 25th primary election, where he will become the general election candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). The Congresswoman, first elected in 2022 from what is Colorado’s newest congressional seat, scored only 48.4% of the vote, defeating her Republican opponent by less than a full percentage point. Count on this race becoming a major national GOP offensive target. NY-16: Rep. Bowman Trails Badly in New Dem Primary Poll: Justice Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, appears to be in trouble as he seeks renomination for a third term. A new Mellman Group survey (3/26-30; 400 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the George Latimer campaign finds the challenging Westchester County Executive leading Rep. Bowman by a whopping 52-35% margin as the June 25th primary comes into view. Rep. Bowman aligns himself with the group that calls themselves “the Squad” and comprises the far left of the Democratic Conference. Mr. Latimer, prior to his election as county executive, served in both the New York Senate and Assembly. This race is now becoming another key primary campaign as several incumbents from around the country face stiff competition in their quest for renomination. Washington: Ex-Rep. Dave Reichert (R) Takes Lead in New Gov Poll: An Echelon Insights survey finds Republican former US Rep. Dave Reichert leading Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson in the open race for Governor, thus providing more evidence that the Washington race is becoming much more competitive than originally projected.
Echelon Insights tested the Evergreen State electorate (3/18-21; 600 WA registered voters; online, text & live interview) and sees Mr. Reichert grasping a 39-30% advantage over AG Ferguson in what is one of the most Democratic states in the country. Some suggest that the poll skews more Republican since Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) claims an underperforming 44-36% margin over physician and 2020 gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia (R), and President Biden posts only a plurality number over Donald Trump, 48-37%. While a skew may well exist, the poll is in the realm of other research findings and confirms that Mr. Reichert is a Republican candidate with staying power and capable of becoming a viable challenger. Nebraska: Move to Change Electoral Vote Apportionment: With the support of Gov. Jim Pillen (R), a bill in the Nebraska unicameral legislature would change Nebraska’s electoral vote apportionment system that allows each of the state’s three congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote and change the system to the more common winner-take-all option. Nebraska and Maine are the two states where presidential candidates win two electoral votes for clinching the statewide vote and one each for every carried congressional district.
The move would help Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race because he is a lock to carry the statewide vote but is the underdog in the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District. Though Republicans have a large majority in the ostensibly non-partisan state Senate, there is no guarantee the votes will be present to change the system. Doing so, however, would likely deliver an important electoral vote to the Trump candidacy. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|