Arizona: New Poll Shows General Election Dead Heat: Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Citizen Awareness Project (7/22-24; 500 AZ likely general election voters; live interview), finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat tie at 46% apiece within the critical state of Arizona, The Grand Canyon State is one of the four swing entities that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
The numbers are clearer if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were to become the Republican nominee. In the pairing with he and President Biden, the Governor is posted to a rather strong nine point lead, 49-40%. It is unlikely, however, that Mr. DeSantis will win the party nomination. Third Party Polling: Most Won’t Consider Independent Pres Candidate: A great deal of media attention has been paid to the possibility of an independent or minor party presidential candidate taking a significant vote share in the 2024 election. According to a Daily Kos/Civiqs research organization poll (7/22-25; 1,154 US registered voters; online), 66% of the respondents, including 78% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans, and 50% of Independents would not vote for such a candidate. As the Civiqs analysis pointed out, in their January 2023 national survey, 62% said they did not want to see President Biden run again, and 59% said the same about former President Donald Trump. Though we may see ancillary candidates emerge, it is likely that this election will follow the same pattern as almost all others, that is, the race will come down to a decision between the two major party nominees. Comments are closed.
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