Monmouth University released their new Pennsylvania poll (7/9-13; 401 PA registered voters) and while former Vice President Joe Biden has a strong lead on the ballot test, a majority of the respondents believe there is a hidden vote for President Trump. First, the sample size is small for a state the size of Pennsylvania. A total of 401 registered voters would be more appropriate for a single congressional district. Therefore, the error factor in this poll is high.
Within the entire sample, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 53-40%. But the Biden advantage drops when likely voter screens are added. In what Monmouth describes as a higher turnout model, Mr. Biden’s lead drops slightly to 52-42%. A lower likely voter model allows Mr. Trump to cut the deficit to 51-44%. Therefore, just adding turnout screens can change the margin spread by almost 50%. Additionally, Monmouth asked two interesting questions. The first inquired whether the respondents believe President Trump has “secret voters” in Pennsylvania. A total of 57% said they believe a group of people will vote for Mr. Trump but not admit it, with 27% saying there are many, 17% believing there are only a few, and 13% saying they exist but are not sure of the number. Only 35% said they did not believe Trump has “secret voters.” Another probing question queried the respondents about who they believe would win Pennsylvania, irrespective of whom they support. By a margin of 46-45%, the sampling universe said they believe President Trump would win. Comments are closed.
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