Iowa: New Poll Puts Businessman Ahead

According to a new Remington Research survey (5/5-6; 2,315 IA likely Democratic primary voters; automated), businessman Fred Hubbell (D), who has been advertising heavily as the nomination campaign moves into its final month before the June 5th primary election, has developed a large lead.  The results find Mr. Hubbell capturing 46% of the polled Democratic respondent group.  State Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) is far back with 20%, followed by four other candidates all registering below 8% preference.  The winner will challenge Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) in November.  Ms. Reynolds, the state’s Lt. Governor until incumbent Terry Branstad (R) was appointed US Ambassador to China, is running for her first full term.  

The percentage garnered in the June 5th primary is important.  Under Iowa election law, if no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote a convention will be assembled for delegates to choose a nominee.  This data suggests that the Democratic convention would be avoided.

- Jim Ellis