NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress: State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.
In 2022, Mr. Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48%, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4% victory margin even though he lost the statewide count. After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target. WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity: State Senator Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48% even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced yesterday that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive. In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Mr. Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate. Comments are closed.
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