CA-29: Rep. Tony Cardenas to Retire: Yesterday, six-term California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. Mr. Cardenas becomes the fifth California House member, and third from Los Angeles County, to voluntarily leave the House at the end of the current Congress.
Democrats will have little trouble holding this heavily Hispanic district (Hispanic population:; 61.1%). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-29 as D+51, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 77.6D – 20.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 28th safest seat in the Democratic Conference. Immediately upon Rep. Cardenas making his announcement, state Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) announced that she will run for the newly open seat. CA-47: Dead Heat General Election Polling: The Global Strategy Group just released the results of a late October internal poll conducted for Democrat Joanna Weiss in California’s open 47th Congressional District. The survey (10/24-30; 500 CA-47 likely general election voters) finds both Ms. Weiss, an Orange County attorney, and state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) embroiled in dead heats with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). Ms. Weiss would nip Mr. Baugh, 43-42%, while the Republican would hold the same edge over Sen. Min. The pollsters tested the respondent’s reaction to Sen. Min being charged with a DWI violation where he registered a blood alcohol level twice the legal amount. A video of the arrest has also been released. The poll finds that 66% of the residents are “deeply concerned” about Sen. Min’s legal situation. His action, however, did not stop the California Democratic Party, at their state convention over the past weekend, from officially endorsing Sen. Min in the congressional race. Mr. Baugh was a general election finalist in the 2022 election, losing to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3% count. With Rep. Porter now running for Senate, this open seat race will be one of the most important in the country toward determining the next House majority. UT-2: Special Election Today: The contest to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) concludes today. Republican Celeste Maloy, Rep. Stewart’s formal legal counsel, and Democratic state Senator Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) are the two main contenders for the seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+23 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks UT-2 as the 81st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. This is a race the Republicans should win comfortably with a victory percentage in the high 50s. Should we see a lesser performance, it would suggest that translating positive polling into actual votes continues to be somewhat elusive. Comments are closed.
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