New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, has proven to be a swing state in the 21st century. Four years ago, the domain went for Hillary Clinton, but only with a 2,736 vote margin. Therefore, President Trump’s campaign is again targeting the state. A just-completed Emerson College poll (9/30-10/1; 700 NH likely voters; interactive voice response system), however, finds Democratic nominee Joe Biden now taking a 52-45% lead over President Trump, a range well beyond the polling margin of error.
Tonight marks the first presidential general election debate of the 2020 campaign. This is the first of the three-debate series and comes from Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland. The Vice Presidential forum, between Vice President Mike Pence and California Senator Kamala Harris, to be conducted in Salt Lake City, is scheduled for October 7th. The second presidential debate, which will feature a town hall format, hails from Miami on October 15th. The finale is pegged for a week later, on October 22nd, from Belmont University in Nashville, TN.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, located in the northern part of the state, gave President Trump an extra electoral vote in 2016, and he needs it again. Maine and Nebraska are the two state’s that split their electoral votes meaning that even if a candidate loses the statewide count, he or she can gain an extra vote by taking a congressional district.
In mid-September, Quinnipiac University released a survey (9/10-14; 476 ME-2 likely voters; live interview, online combination) that found Joe Biden leading President Trump by a surprisingly large nine percentage points, 53-44%. Late last week, we saw the third poll to refute those numbers, this one by Maine’s own Colby College (9/17-23; 425 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) that found the two candidates falling to within three points of each other, 46-43%. This confirms the other two latter September polls from Siena College/New York Times and Suffolk University. They both found the Biden leads at two and one point, respectively. As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.
The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects Mr. Biden holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes. Maine and Nebraska are the two states that split their electoral votes, and the two districts that have a tendency to vote opposite their state and award an electoral vote to the losing statewide candidate. ME-2 and NE-2, show leads for former Vice President Joe Biden even though they are must win races for President Trump.
Siena College/New York Times tested the 2nd District of Maine, the state’s northern seat, (9/11-16; 440 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) and sees the Biden advantage to be 47-45%. The Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group surveyed NE -2 (9/14-16; 400 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) and posts an even larger 51-45% Biden advantage in that district. These are places to watch as the general election unfolds. The new Quinnipiac University poll (9/10-14; 1,183 ME likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden posting a huge 21-point lead over President Trump, 59-38%. The data finds the President would even lose the 2nd Congressional District, which would provide him an important extra electoral vote. In ME-2, Mr. Trump would trail Mr. Biden, 53-44%. No other Maine survey has returned numbers as stark as these. Therefore, we can expect to see more polling being conducted here in order to confirm this trend or provide a different result.
Minnesota is again attracting more polling attention, this time from ABC News/Washington Post. While the Land of 10,000 Lakes has been polling much closer lately, the ABC/WP survey (9/8-13; 615 MN likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden opening up a much larger 57-41% lead over President Trump. This is inconsistent with other recent data (five polls) that found the margin ranging from four to nine points.
It’s also seemingly at odds with ABC/WP’s own findings in next door Wisconsin. The survey there (9/8-13; 605 WI likely voters; live interview) gives Mr. Biden a six-point, 52-46% lead, which is consistent with other polling. The New York Times/Siena College survey partnership is back after having a successful 2018 election cycle in predicting election outcomes. The FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rates the NYT/SC as one of the top six polling entities in the country with an A+ rating.
Looking at the Minnesota race where recent polling has suggested a tightening of the presidential contest within the state, NYT/Siena (9/8-10; 814 MN likely voters; live interview) sees Joe Biden holding a stronger lead over President Trump than other current data. Here, the Biden margin is 50-41 percent. Even with this spread, the volatility seen here suggests we will see further competition in the closing weeks. The New York Times/Siena College polling series also looked at New Hampshire (9/8-11; 445 NH likely voters; live interview) where a tight race again appears to be unfolding that looks potentially similar to what we witnessed in 2016. In that election year, Hillary Clinton carried the state by just 2,738 votes (46.8 – 46.5%) from 744,296 ballots cast. According to the NYT/SC results, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains only a three-point, 45-42%, edge over President Trump.
The AARP organization commissioned a series of Democratic and Republican polling firms to test key states for the upcoming presidential and US Senate contests. Like other recent pollsters, the Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) pairing found tightening ballot test results in three key states: Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Testing 1,600 likely voters via live interviews during the August 30th thru September 5th period, the AARP team found Joe Biden leading in all three of the critical swing states, but in margins well within the polling error factor. The Biden leads were 1, 2, and 3 points in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania, respectively. |
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