Arguing a voter access case before the state Supreme Court, Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar (D) has reversed course and now approves of ballots being counted if they are received after Election Day. She is recommending a three-day acceptance period.
Emerson College Polling released a series of surveys conducted over the August 8-10 period in four presidential swing states, and in each case the results seem to cut against the average trend. In Pennsylvania (843 likely voters) and Arizona (861 likely voters), Emerson projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be running well ahead of the margin he has been posting lately. Both states showed a seven-point spread with no undecided voters. The Emerson pollsters often push respondents for a choice between major party candidates, which eliminates the undecided category.
In North Carolina (873 likely voters) and Minnesota (733 likely voters), President Trump is performing better than the average, leading in the Tar Heel State by one percentage point, and trailing in Minnesota by just two points. The latter number is significantly below the 8.6% Biden average spread determined from the last five Minnesota published polls prior to Emerson’s release. Gravis Marketing conducted a series of surveys in the Great Lakes Swing states during the July 22-24 period, and came to some interesting conclusions. While President Trump had largely been polling better in Wisconsin when looking at the three regional swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania being the other two, Gravis sees a different cut.
Their results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading Mr. Trump in Wisconsin (6/22; 796 WI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 50-42%, and Michigan (6/22; 754 MI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 51-42%. The Pennsylvania numbers, however, reveal the closer ballot test. Here (6/22-24; 1,006 PA likely voters via interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), Mr. Biden leads only 48-45%. Last week we covered a Public Opinion Strategies survey (7/11-14; 400 PA-1 registered voters) that posted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) to a 53-39% general election lead and questioned the results. The POS poll was not consistent with either the Victoria Research and Consulting survey (6/7-14; 403 PA-1 likely voters) that found Rep. Fitzpatrick and Democratic nominee Christina Finello locked in a tied 46-46% race, or even the Republican primary results that saw the Congressman secure only a 63% victory against an opponent who put forth little campaign effort.
Now, however, a new American Viewpoint poll (7/13-15; 400 PA-1 likely general election voters) confirms the POS result. They see Mr. Fitzpatrick holding a very similar 50-35% advantage in this Philadelphia suburban district that Hillary Clinton carried by two percentage points. A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (7/11-14; 400 PA-1 likely general election voters) projects two-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) to be holding a substantial 53-39% advantage. The poll is surprising in that it contradicts the tight numbers that earlier post-primary polling revealed. Furthermore, Mr. Fitzpatrick’s rather weak 63% performance in the June 23rd Republican primary also lent credence to the surveys that find his contest with Democratic nominee Christina Finello as falling into a toss-up mode.
Though the POS survey finds Rep. Fitzpatrick faring well, President Trump would trail former Vice President Joe Biden, 51-42%, within the 1st District suggesting the turnout model here would clearly favor the Democrats. Monmouth University released their new Pennsylvania poll (7/9-13; 401 PA registered voters) and while former Vice President Joe Biden has a strong lead on the ballot test, a majority of the respondents believe there is a hidden vote for President Trump. First, the sample size is small for a state the size of Pennsylvania. A total of 401 registered voters would be more appropriate for a single congressional district. Therefore, the error factor in this poll is high.
Within the entire sample, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 53-40%. But the Biden advantage drops when likely voter screens are added. In what Monmouth describes as a higher turnout model, Mr. Biden’s lead drops slightly to 52-42%. A lower likely voter model allows Mr. Trump to cut the deficit to 51-44%. Therefore, just adding turnout screens can change the margin spread by almost 50%. Additionally, Monmouth asked two interesting questions. The first inquired whether the respondents believe President Trump has “secret voters” in Pennsylvania. A total of 57% said they believe a group of people will vote for Mr. Trump but not admit it, with 27% saying there are many, 17% believing there are only a few, and 13% saying they exist but are not sure of the number. Only 35% said they did not believe Trump has “secret voters.” Another probing question queried the respondents about who they believe would win Pennsylvania, irrespective of whom they support. By a margin of 46-45%, the sampling universe said they believe President Trump would win. Again looking at a Trafalgar Group poll, this time of the important Pennsylvania electorate (6/29-7/2; 1,062 PA likely voters), the ballot test finds former VP Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48-43%, which is consistent with other current polling data. We can expect seeing regular polls coming from this state for the rest of the election cycle.
Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Harrisburg, PA based survey firm, yesterday released the results of their new Keystone State study (6/15-23; 715 PA likely general election voters). According to their likely voters data, former Vice President Joe Biden would lead President Trump, 46-41% in the critically important swing state.
Though down, this poll finds the President’s Pennsylvania standing a bit better than during a similar time period in 2016. According to a Marist College/NBC News poll conducted during the July 5-10 period four years ago, Hillary Clinton polled nine points ahead of Mr. Trump. Overall, 59 surveys were published of the 2016 Pennsylvania electorate, and Ms. Clinton led in 56 of those, though most projected a lead considerably smaller than the NBC/Marist survey cited above. More attention is being paid to Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, which occupies much of the Bucks County area in suburban Philadelphia, since two-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) recorded only 63% of the vote against weak opposition in his Republican primary. Now, an internal House Majority PAC poll (6/7-14; 403 registered voters of which 60% were conducted via cell phone and said to be at least “50/50” about voting in November) finds the Congressman leading new Democratic nominee Christina Finello, by a scant 45-44% margin. When leaners are added, the two contenders are tied.
Another survey was just released from a district that does not draw much national attention. Democratic pollster GBAO Strategies conducted their survey in late May but is just releasing the numbers now (5/28-31; 600 PA-10 likely general election voters). The results find Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) opening with a slight 50-47% lead over State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) in what is again expected to be a close race. In 2018, Rep. Perry was re-elected with a 51-49% margin after the state Supreme Court ordered a re-draw of the Pennsylvania congressional districts.
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