A new University of Massachusetts at Lowell poll was just released, and it finds Democratic Sen. Ed Markey and US Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) locked in a virtual tie. The results see Rep. Kennedy holding a slight 44-42% edge, a margin virtually unchanged from the university’s last poll (2/12-18) that projected Mr. Kennedy ahead 35-34 percent.
The fact that Rep. Kennedy, steeped in Kennedy family history so entrenched within the state, hasn’t pulled away in this race is a good sign for Sen. Markey, a Massachusetts politician who has been in elective office since his first term in the state legislature that began way back in 1973. Early this week, Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin (D) informed the state legislature that the body must pass any bill changing the election procedure as it relates to conducting the September 1st primary election by mail no later than June 2nd. Mr. Galvin is under statutory authority to begin printing ballots and cannot wait any longer than this point in June. It is likely the state will adopt the all-mail format for the upcoming primary, but the members of the General Court will have to act quickly if the change is to be made.
The Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled in favor of plaintiffs arguing that the state’s ballot petition requirements are too high considering the COVID-19 precautions being in effect. The ruling greatly helps Sen. Ed Markey (D) because reports were indicating his campaign was lagging behind in even reaching the minimum number of 15,000 valid petition signatures. His Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton), according to campaign spokespeople, has already submitted more than 30,000 signatures.
The new signature requirement assuredly means that the Senate primary will move forward and Sen. Markey will not be disqualified on a technicality. Last week we reported that Sen. Ed Markey (D) had fallen behind in obtaining the 10,000 ballot petition signatures to qualify for the September 1st primary ballot. Others around the state are apparently finding themselves in a similar situation especially since the required number of petition signatures to access the ballot is unusually large. A new bill in the legislature would halve the requirement in response to the COVID-19 situation that keeps ground operation petition gathering signature efforts sidelined. It is likely that the bill will pass.
Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton), Sen. Markey’s principal Democratic primary opponent, said last week that his campaign had already gathered more than 15,000 signatures, so he will clearly be on the ballot regardless of whether the minimum valid signature number is reduced. Reports coming from Sen. Ed Markey’s Democratic primary against Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) find that the incumbent’s campaign is approximately 3,000 petition signatures from obtaining the minimum 10,000 in order to qualify for the ballot. With the Coronavirus making door to door approaches impossible, the Markey campaign has switched to making an online appeal and sending the proper forms through the mail to those who respond.
Rep. Kennedy’s campaign reports that they are well over the minimum amount required. The signature petition deadline is May 5th, so the Markey campaign still has time to qualify and its spokesman said the operation is confident they will meet the goal. Massachusetts Democratic Party chairman Gus Bickford is recommending to the organization’s Executive Committee, according to WBUR News in Boston, that the May 30th state convention be cancelled as a COVID-19 virus precaution. The committee’s top business item was an endorsement vote in the US Senate Democratic primary between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton).
Mr. Bickford is telling the committee that the two campaigns have reached an agreement where Sen. Markey would be awarded the party endorsement based upon his strength at county conventions, while Rep. Kennedy would be given automatic ballot placement for the Senate race. Under party rules, a candidate must receive 15% of the state convention vote to attain a statewide ballot slot. The Executive Committee is meeting on Saturday to consider the Bickford proposal. The Massachusetts primary is scheduled for September 1st. More Governors and election officials are keeping their primary calendars intact but are changing their voting systems. As a precaution for COVID-19, a significant number of states are now implementing procedural changes from in-person voting to casting their votes by mail.
At the end of last week, political leaders in the following entities are the latest to take such action in relation to their upcoming primaries: Massachusetts (May 30 local elections), Minnesota (Aug 11 statewide primary), Nebraska (May 12), New Jersey (June 2), North Dakota (June 9), Ohio (ballots must be post-marked on or before April 27), and West Virginia (May 12). The Sunrise Movement, described by some as a left-wing extremist environmental group, announced it is targeting two major Democratic US House committee chairmen in their respective party primaries. Both Reps. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Eliot Engel (D-NY) have announced primary opposition. So far, Sunrise supported Democratic primary challengers have won one race, Marie Newman over Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois, but failed against Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Bobby Rush (D-IL).
The Sunrise Movement organization is now backing Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse against Mr. Neal who is chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee. The Massachusetts primary won’t be held until September 1st, so this race has some time to develop. Mr. Morse is Rep. Neal’s only announced Democratic opponent but the candidate filing deadline does not expire until May 5th. Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Engel’s top opponent is local Bronx middle school principal Jamaal Bowman who, in addition to Sunrise Movement’s support, also has the Working Families Party endorsement. The WFP backing is significant because this could give Mr. Bowman the option of advancing into the general election even if he loses the Democratic primary. At this time, four other Democrats are also in the primary race, which is scheduled for June 23rd, and little time still remains for others to file since the New York candidate filing deadline is fast approaching on April 2nd. So far, there is no indication that the New York election calendar will change. Suffolk University, polling for the Boston Globe newspaper, surveyed the Massachusetts Democratic electorate (2/26-3/1; 500 MA likely Democratic primary voters) and again found Sen. Ed Markey in difficult position against Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) for the upcoming Senate Democratic primary scheduled for September 1st. The results project Rep. Kennedy topping the veteran Massachusetts politician who was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 1972 and has been in public office ever since, 42-36%.
This result is even better for Kennedy than the recent UMass Lowell poll (2/12-19; 450 MA likely Democratic primary voters) that gave the Representative a one point, 35-34%, lead over Sen. Markey. Clearly, this is the most competitive of all the 2020 Senate primaries. The University of Massachusetts at Lowell surveyed the September Democratic primary between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) and finds a virtual tie between the two men. According to their study (2/12-19; 450 MA likely Democratic primary voters), Rep. Kennedy would lead the early Democratic primary preference, 35-34%.
The numbers split almost evenly throughout the crosstab segmentation, but the underlying issue numbers clearly favor Rep. Kennedy. When asked who would better “stand up” to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), agree more with on the issues, fight for women, people of color, the environment, and “people like you”, Mr. Kennedy was chosen in all of the categories by margins of five to 14 points. This is particularly surprising on the environment response (Kennedy: 34-29%) since Sen. Markey has been a national climate change leader for over 20 years. The issue responses suggest that Rep. Kennedy is stronger than the ballot test reveals. This race has a long way to go before the September 1st state primary, so we can expect a long and competitive political contest to capture the Bay State Democrats |
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