As the tough US Senate Democratic primary battle between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) draws to a close next Tuesday, the former man is going positive to begin the final week of campaigning. This is an indication that the Markey campaign’s internal polling confirms public polls that project the Senator with the lead. Among the dignitaries appearing in testimonials for the Senator is Massachusetts’ other Senator and former presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren. Her message states that “we need Ed Markey in the Senate now more than ever.”
A new Beacon Research survey (8/15-16; 391 MA-1 Democratic primary voters) finds House Ways & Means Committee chairman Richard Neal (D-Springfield) in a narrowing Democratic primary race with Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. The poll is interesting in that it tests those who have already voted along with respondents not yet casting their ballot for the September 1st primary.
According to the Beacon data, Rep. Neal holds a combined score of just 46-41% over Mr. Morse including those who have already voted and the others who plan to participate. Among those reporting having cast their ballot, Mr. Morse holds a whopping advantage, 66-34%. Of those not yet voting and stating their preference, Rep. Neal is up 47-38%. The Ed Markey/Rep. Joe Kennedy III Senate race has a similar conclusion within the 1st Congressional District confines. Among those who have voted, Sen. Markey holds a commanding 76-24% advantage. For those not yet voting, the Senator’s edge is only 39-38%. Combined, Sen. Markey has a 43-36% margin in the western Mass CD. The University of Massachusetts at Amherst released a new statewide Democratic primary poll and though the error factor is high, the ballot test produces a major surprise. According to this data (7/31-8/7; 500 MA registered voters; 199 likely Democratic primary voters; 163 likely Independent voters intending to enter the Democratic primary), Sen. Ed Markey (D), in a race that had, heretofore, been close leads Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) by a large 50-32% margin, and 51-36% when those who said they were leaning to one candidate or the other were included. In UMass’ last poll conducted back in February, the candidates were separated by three percentage points.
The ballot test question was only asked of those pledging to vote in the Democratic primary, of which 362 responded affirmatively. Because the sampling universe is small for a statewide survey, the error factor is high: 5.9% for all registered voters and a huge 7.0% for the likely Democratic primary voters. Still, Sen. Markey expanding his margin to a wide degree is obvious and appears his lead heading into the September 1st primary election is definable. We have reported that Sen. Ed Markey has been on the upswing of late with support coming from environmental groups, Massachusetts’ top teachers’ union, and an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Now, supporters of Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) are responding with an independent expenditure PAC that promises to run $1.6 million in ads for the challenger. Most of the reported funding is coming from unions and the Kennedy family. The Massachusetts primary is September 1st.
With the Democratic US Senate primary moving into high gear as we approach the September 1st Massachusetts primary, things seem to be turning Sen. Ed Markey’s way in his battle with Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton). Not only has the Senator gained key endorsements in the past couple of weeks from environmental groups, the state’s major teachers’ union, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who will reportedly be featured narrating some of the Markey campaign’s closing ads, a new JMC Analytics poll now shows him moving ahead of Rep. Kennedy. This, despite Kennedy advertising his candidacy since May and Sen. Markey just beginning to hit the airwaves.
The JMC poll (7/29-30; 500 MA likely Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Markey outpolling Rep. Kennedy, 40-36% with 24% of the respondents saying they are undecided. When those in the latter group are pushed, they break 44-41% in Mr. Markey’s favor. In what could be a major development, Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) has captured another key endorsement. The Massachusetts Teachers Association announced yesterday they will actively support the veteran lawmaker in his bid for re-nomination against Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton).
Prior to this, several key environmental groups, acknowledging the Senator’s long leadership role on the climate change issue, had endorsed Sen. Markey and launched a major independent expenditure on his behalf. The Massachusetts primary is September 1st. Sen. Ed Markey is in a tight re-nomination battle with four-term Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton), but the incumbent received some much appreciated help yesterday from his climate change allies. The Senator has been a leader in environmental issues and causes for decades during his congressional service, and his work is being recognized. The Environment America Action Fund, whose supported independent expenditure PAC United for Massachusetts, announced they will spend over $900,000 on a broadcast and digital ad campaign to promote Sen. Markey. The Massachusetts primary is September 1st.
The Senate Democratic primary race between Massachusetts incumbent Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) is expected to be close at the polls and even appears to be down to the penny in the political money war. Both men are releasing their 2nd Quarter 2020 financial numbers, and each raised just over $1.9 million during the period. They both have almost the same amount of cash-on-hand, too. Sen. Markey reports $4.8 million in his campaign account versus Rep. Kennedy’s $4.7 million. The Massachusetts Democratic primary is September 1st.
For weeks it appeared that 2018 Massachusetts congressional candidate Dan Loh, who lost to now-Representative Lori Trahan (D-Lowell) by just 143 votes in the Democratic primary, was ready to launch another challenge. Three things had happened since the last election that suggested Mr. Loh was all in for another run, including him raising money and constructing a campaign operation. The other two happenings were Mr. Loh getting elected as a Selectman in the town of Andover, and Ms. Trahan coming under investigation for potential campaign finance violations.
Yet, it appears that the Congresswoman went from facing a strong primary opponent to having none at all. Candidate filing was finalized in Massachusetts on Friday and Mr. Loh decided not to enter the race, thus allowing Rep. Trahan to find herself without a Democratic opponent. Furthermore, she’s also unopposed in the general election. On the heels of our report last week that the latest University of Massachusetts at Lowell survey finds US Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) leading Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a 44-42% virtual toss-up result, Emerson College (5/5-6; 740 MA registered voters; 620 MA likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much different political landscape. According to the Emerson data, Rep. Kennedy has a whopping 58-42% lead after voters were pushed to make a decision. The UMass Lowell poll is closer to the three others conducted in 2020, which yield a three-point average Kennedy advantage.
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