The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 1,368 AZ previously selected respondents from a larger sampling pool; online), again finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). The numbers break 51-42% in Kelly’s favor, which is actually a slight improvement for McSally. This compares to the poll’s 49-45% split for Joe Biden over President Trump, which is a more reasonable spread as compared to some recent surveys of the Arizona electorate.
Fox News tested the Arizona electorate (5/30-6/2; 1,002 AZ registered voters) and while they post improving numbers for President Trump (trailing Joe Biden 42-46%), they find retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) continuing to build a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). These results find Mr. Kelly posting a 50-37% advantage.
The HighGround Consulting firm poll (5/18-22; 400 AZ likely general election voters) released earlier this week that projected former Vice President Joe Biden to be running ahead of President Trump by less than two percentage points sees consensus Democratic candidate Mark Kelly, the retired astronaut, leading appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R), 51-41%. Polling has consistently shown Kelly with an advantage, and now his edge is regularly reported as being beyond the polling margin of error.
In the middle of May, OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters) released their Arizona statewide survey that received considerable attention in the political pundit community due to the Grand Canyon State’s importance in the presidential campaign. With its 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. The OH poll found former Vice President Biden leading 50-43%, his largest margin to date, but little in the way of analysis accompanied the poll release.
Several days later, Redfield & Wilson Strategies released their Arizona poll taken during relatively the same time frame as OH Predictive Insights (5/10-14; 946 AZ likely general election voters) and found a much closer result: Biden, 45-41%. Now, another Phoenix-based pollster, HighGround, Inc., (5/18-22; 400 AZ likely voters), sees a race well within the statistical margin of error: Biden, 47.0 – 45.3%. The May trend again suggests that Arizona, while moving closer to the ideological center as its population continues to rapidly expand, is a domain very much in play for both candidates as we begin the general election campaign in earnest. The aforementioned OH Predictive Insights Arizona survey (see Arizona in the Presidential section above) finds appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) dropping behind retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) by a double-digit margin for the first time. The ballot test yields a 51-38% Kelly advantage. As what plagued her in the 2018 Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema (D), population dominant Maricopa County is performing well above the norm for a Democratic candidate.
Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting some distance between he and President Trump, 50-43%, in what is a must-win state for the Republican incumbent. The poll itself is not yet in the public domain, therefore making it difficult to analyze the nuances.
Maricopa County election officials are considering fundamentally changing the voting procedures for the state’s August 4th primary that will likely lead to permanent alterations. The new plan first encourages people to vote by mail, and the county officials are weighing operational options to contact all voters who have not requested a mail ballot in order to offer them the option.
Furthermore, the yet-to-be-adopted plan would eliminate precinct polling places and instead establish approximately 75 “voting centers” around the county that would allow any registered voter to cast their ballot up to two weeks before Election Day. Maricopa County comprises over 60% of the Arizona population. The Arizona Secretary of State just slotted for ballot placement the US House candidates who met the April 6th filing requirements. From the nine congressional seats, there appears only three situations where competitive races could develop.
In the expansive 1st District that occupies most of eastern Arizona, two-term Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) seeks a third term. He has drawn Democratic primary opposition from former Flagstaff City Councilwoman Eva Putzova, though her $40,444 cash-on-hand figure at the end of the first quarter suggests she will not conduct a major campaign. In the general election, Republican attorney and former congressional candidate Tiffany Shedd looks to be the strongest candidate, but the term may be relative. The latest campaign financial statements find her holding just over $180,000, but she has a $295,140 debt of which only $66,140 is owed to herself. The nature of the district suggests this could be a top tier challenger race, but the campaign will have to develop to a much greater degree for Rep. O’Halleran to lapse into a toss-up race. When Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Tucson), after representing this district for less than a full term, announced she was taking a leave of absence to fight alcoholism, it appeared she might face a difficult challenge for re-election. Though she drew one Democratic opponent and four Republicans, none appear to be waging the type of effort capable of unseating Ms. Kirkpatrick. The big race of the year appears to be in the formerly safe Republican 6th District. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) is seeking a sixth term after winning his closest re-election in 2018 (55-45%, against a candidate spending less than $400,000) and being under an ethics investigation for allegedly improperly using government resources to augment his political campaign. Before a changing electorate with a potentially compromised incumbent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni (D), who ran a competitive race in the 8th District special election, has jumped over to the Scottsdale area to challenge Mr. Schweikert. Already raising over $1.7 million, and holding more than $1.2 million in her account, Dr. Tipirneni has raised more than any Arizona congressional candidate during this election cycle and certainly more than Rep. Schweikert’s $1.1 million. Expect the 6th District race to be Arizona’s premier top tier contest. Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, that yesterday released their presidential ballot test (4/7-8; 600 AZ likely general election voters) finding former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump 52-43%, not surprisingly forecasts Senate candidate Mark Kelly (D) to be holding a substantial advantage over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). As with the presidential race, the spread is nine points, or 51-42% in this case. Other polling trends have also found Mr. Kelly, a retired astronaut, to be holding a lead but with a lesser spread.
OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based survey research firm that often polls the Grand Canyon State electorate, finds former Vice President Joe Biden opening up a large lead over President Trump in what could be a determinative state, nationally. According to the OH data (4/7-8; 600 AZ likely general election voters), Mr. Biden holds a nine-point, 52-43%, lead.
Arizona is critical to President Trump’s prospects because it is one of five states that voted for him in 2016 that he must keep in his 2020 coalition in order to be positioned favorably in the remaining swing states. |
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