Being found in ethics violation over his previous campaign finance practices and using government funds to aide his re-election committee, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) now finds himself trailing new Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni, a physician who has previously run in the adjoining 8th District. A just-released Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey (8/6-12; 548 AZ-6 likely voters) finds Dr. Tipirneni leading the five-term Congressman by a 48-45% count. We can expect this to be a top tier national congressional race.
Emerson College Polling released a series of surveys conducted over the August 8-10 period in four presidential swing states, and in each case the results seem to cut against the average trend. In Pennsylvania (843 likely voters) and Arizona (861 likely voters), Emerson projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be running well ahead of the margin he has been posting lately. Both states showed a seven-point spread with no undecided voters. The Emerson pollsters often push respondents for a choice between major party candidates, which eliminates the undecided category.
In North Carolina (873 likely voters) and Minnesota (733 likely voters), President Trump is performing better than the average, leading in the Tar Heel State by one percentage point, and trailing in Minnesota by just two points. The latter number is significantly below the 8.6% Biden average spread determined from the last five Minnesota published polls prior to Emerson’s release. Last month, we found a situation during the July 17-26 period when three different pollsters were all conducting surveys of the critically important Arizona electorate. The three pollsters, Morning Consult, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, and Change Research, found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by margins of 7, 8, and 2 percentage points, respectively.
We now see another period, this time with a poll ending August 2nd and the others continuing through August 8th, where a different three survey research firms are again simultaneously polling. In this set, the three pollsters find closer margins than the aforementioned trio. Here, Data for Progress, OH Predictive Insights, and the Trafalgar Group find Mr. Biden’s lead dropping to 2 and 4 points (DfP and OH), while President Trump takes the lead by a point in the third survey (Trafalgar). Voters in five states will cast their ballots today, including the controversial Kansas Senate Republican primary. The state also features three important congressional primaries and one, in the 2nd District, that could deny freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) re-nomination. Electorates are also voting in Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Arizona and Michigan feature Senate races, but the general elections in both states are set. Governors’ races are occurring in Missouri and Washington.
The House Ethics Committee closed an investigation of Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and issued a report after all parties reached an agreement. Mr. Schweikert admits he committed eleven violations in the areas of “campaign finance violations and reporting errors, spending government money to support his political campaigns, pressuring government staff to perform campaign work,” and, for the Congressman’s "lack of candor and due diligence in the course of the investigation." While the investigation is now closed, the findings will certainly become a campaign issue.
The Arizona primary is Tuesday, and former 8th District congressional candidate Hiral Tipirneni is poised to win the Democratic nomination. She reported raising almost $2.5 million for the race at the June 30th financial reporting deadline and has almost $1.3 million cash on hand for the general election. Though drawn as a safely Republican seat, the recent Arizona demographic and voting changes coupled with Schweikert’s proven ethics violations puts this seat in play for November. At the beginning of July, Gravis Marketing released an Arizona Senate survey that found appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) leading retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), 46-42%. While the prevailing wisdom suggested this result is an outlier because all other data gives Mr. Kelly a sizable lead, the new YouGov poll (7/7-10; 1,087 AZ likely general election voters) finds the same 46-42% split, but in Mr. Kelly’s favor. Though the YouGov poll again posts the consensus Democratic candidate to be holding the lead, this survey seems to confirm that the important Arizona Senate race is getting tighter.
Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) represents a Republican suburban Phoenix district, but he is under investigation for allegedly misusing some of his government funds for political purposes. While the campaign here hasn’t yet drawn much national attention, his likely Democratic opponent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni who ran in the 8th District special and general election during the last election cycle, has quietly raised well over $2 million and is reporting more than $1.6 million cash-on-hand. This race will become competitive and is an upset possibility.
Change Research, as discussed in the North Carolina section below, conducted a semi-national poll in six battleground states including Arizona. Since they don’t release the individual state samples, it is difficult to measure accuracy. In North Carolina, their results differ greatly with East Carolina University.
In Arizona, however, Change and local respected pollster Data Orbital (6/27-29; 600 AZ likely voters) see a similar result. Change projects retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) to be holding a 53-44% lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R), while DO sees a slightly closer 50-43% spread. Siena College and the New York Times are again partnering to produce a series of political polls as they did last year. Yesterday, mid-June results were made available for Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. The results are consistent with what we have been seeing for quite some time in these three frequently polled states.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) maintain their recent approximate ten-point advantages over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and manufacturing company owner John James (R) in Arizona and Michigan, respectively. The North Carolina race, which is predicted to seesaw between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) again produces a tight result for Siena/NYT. We’ve seen six similar polls released for the state in June, including S/NYT, and the margin between the two candidates hover between one and four points. The Siena/NYT result shows a three-point edge for Mr. Cunningham. Of the six surveys, four find the Democrat slightly ahead with two favoring Sen. Tillis in a similar realm. Recently data from across the country and in key battleground states have forecast a strong advantage for Democratic nominee-designate Joe Biden over President Trump. A new Change Research polling series of seven polls, six stemming from their national polling sample (6/12-14; 1,250 US likely general election voters with subsets in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI) finds the President gaining in his must-win states.
The national ballot test continues to give Biden a wide 51-41% national margin, but, as is the case with such polling, the Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the big states skews the overall popular vote count. Additionally, as we saw in 2016, the national count is irrelevant in electing a US President. In the key states, however, Change Research, which is a Democratic pollster, finds Trump to be within 1-4 points in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and down by seven points in Florida. It is these battlegrounds that will truly decide the November election. |
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