Harvard-Harris Poll: Indys Taking More from Biden: Originally when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. had announced as an Independent for President, the subsequent early polls found him taking slightly more support from Donald Trump than President Biden. Recently, that trend has reversed. The new Harvard University survey that The Harris Poll and HarrisX conducted (12/13-14; 2,034 US registered voters; online) is now typical. They find Mr. Kennedy and the other minor party/independent candidates apparently securing more support from President Biden than his future general election opponent.
In the isolated Biden-Trump ballot test, Mr. Trump would lead 52-48%. Adding just Mr. Kennedy, the Trump advantage expands to 44-36-20%. A third ballot test, that included Messrs. Biden, Trump, Kennedy, independent Dr. Cornel West, and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein, saw a 43-35-17-2-2% division. CA-20: Top Contender Disqualified: Because state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) had filed for re-election and the Secretary of State officially accepted his documents, the state’s chief elections officer ruled on Friday that Mr. Fong is ineligible to switch to the open congressional race. Therefore, despite his endorsement from outgoing Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), Mr. Fong will apparently not be on the congressional ballot.
This leaves the GOP field to Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, who is president of the California Sheriffs Association, businessman David Giglio, businessman and former congressional candidate Matt Stoll, and casino owner Kyle Kirkland. The 20th District is the safest Republican seat in the California delegation. Seeing the all-party jungle primary produce a double Republican general election appears a distinct possibility. GA-3: Rep. Drew Ferguson to Retire: Georgia US Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/ Carrollton) announced on Friday that he will not seek a fifth term in the House, saying that “Georgia is a special place, and it’s calling us home.” Mr. Ferguson, first elected in 2016, served two terms as the Republican Chief Deputy Whip and is a member of the House Ways & Means Committee. He averaged 66.9% of the vote in his four successful congressional campaigns. The 3rd District hugs the Alabama border in western Georgia, and lies among the cities of Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon. GA-3 is the third strongest Republican congressional seat in the Peach State. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+38, while the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 51st safest in the Republican Conference. Donald Trump defeated President Biden here 64-34% in the 2020 election. Rep. Ferguson’s successor will be decided in the Republican nomination process. GA-3 becomes the 37th open US House seat headed to the next election. North Carolina: Candidate Filing Closes: The candidate filing period for North Carolina’s March 5th primary closed on Friday, and we now see a slate of contenders in the newly drawn congressional seats. The state also features an open Governor’s race, but no US Senate campaign in 2024. Republicans filed contenders in all 14 Tar Heel State CDs, but two Republicans will run unopposed unless the Democrats can petition a candidate on the ballot. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) in the 3rd District and the eventual nominee in the Greensboro anchored 6th (Rep. Kathy Manning-D retiring), saw no Democratic candidate file. One of the most competitive seats for the general election appears to be District 1 where freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) sees his new CD yield only a 50-49% victory for President Biden in 2020, though Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a slightly more favorable Democratic overall partisan lean, 50.9D – 47.7R. The likely Republican nominee here is former congressional candidate Sandy Smith. Hotly contested Republican primaries will occur in the open 6th, 8th (Rep. Dan Bishop-R running for Attorney General), 10th (Rep. Patrick McHenry-R retiring), 13th (Rep. Wiley Nickel-D retiring), and 14th (Rep. Jeff Jackson-D running for Attorney General) districts. Under NC voting laws, a runoff occurs only if a candidate fails to break 30% of the original primary vote. New Jersey: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Interviews for Party Senate Endorsements: Former US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), who served two terms in the House before his re-election defeat in 2022 and is now an unannounced US Senate candidate, conducted interviews with the Union County municipal Democratic Party chairmen seeking their endorsement for his potential statewide bid. Mr. Malinowski represented most of Union County in the US House. Already in the primary race, challenging indicted Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, are New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown).
Mr. Malinowski would have to overcome long odds in order to win the party nomination, and it is no foregone conclusion that he will actually enter the race. Despite calls for his resignation, Mr. Menendez is not leaving the Senate, nor has he ruled out running for re-election. Polls, however, suggest he would badly lose the Democratic primary. NY-3: Local Republicans Nominate Mazi Melesa Pilip: The Nassau and Queens County Republican Party chairmen have nominated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Ethiopian born former member of the Israeli military, as their special election congressional nominee. She will oppose the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Tom Suozzi in the February 13th special election to serve the balance of expelled Rep. George Santos’ (R) term.
Interestingly, Ms. Pilip is reportedly still a registered Democrat even though she is an elected Republican and will now be the GOP congressional nominee. She is an interesting choice that will likely draw more attention to what is likely to become a competitive special election. NC-13: Rep. Wiley Nickel Won’t Seek Re-Election; Will Return in 2026: In an admission that he would not be successful running for re-election in the newly configured 13th Congressional District, Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) announced yesterday that he would end his career in the US House after one term. Rather, he will return to elective politics in 2026 and challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R). In that year, Sen. Tillis, assuming he seeks re-election, will be on the ballot for a third term. The new 13th District begins in the Dunn area south of Raleigh in Harnett County. The seat then moves northward around Raleigh on the east side of Wake County and stretches to the Virginia border. The 2022 state Supreme Court drew a 13th District that shared part of Wake County, annexing the city of Cary, and then moved south of the capital city to include Johnston County and parts of Hartnett and Wayne Counties. The partisan lean for new Congressional District 13, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 56.6R – 41.2D. Under the map to which Rep. Nickel was elected, the 13th CD brandished a much different 49.5D – 48.1R partisan lean. Also leaving the North Carolina congressional delegation are Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), who like Rep. Nickel face long re-election odds on the new Tar Heel State congressional map. Mr. Jackson is running for the open state Attorney General’s position and will probably face his colleague in the adjoining congressional district, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte), in the statewide race. New Jersey: Defeated State Senate President Launches ’25 Gov Campaign: Former New Jersey state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D), who served in the legislature for 20 years before his shocking upset defeat in the 2021 election, announced that he will enter the open 2025 gubernatorial campaign. Mr. Sweeney presided over the state Senate as President for a 14-year period.
Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term and like in Virginia where another odd-numbered gubernatorial position will be open, candidates are already announcing for their respective offices long before even the 2024 election transpires. Announcing for the 2025 gubernatorial race before Mr. Sweeney was Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop. Both US Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) are reported to be testing the waters to also run for Governor. For the Republicans, immediately after his close 2021 loss to Gov. Murphy, former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli announced that he would return for another gubernatorial bid in 2025. Florida: Dems Cancel Presidential Primary: In what could be the first of several states where the Democratic Party will suspend the presidential primary and award their delegate slate to President Biden, Florida took such action with yesterday’s announcement. This move is not uncommon for both political parties with an incumbent president seeking re-election. It is used mostly in states where the political party is responsible for financing the party primary. When the incumbent is a sure bet to win the state’s primary, the party suspends the election in order to save the money to use in the general election.
Primary suspension and the awarding of delegate slates to, in this case, President Biden is one of the reasons that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. abandoned his Democratic primary challenge to Mr. Biden and instead became an independent presidential candidate. Ohio: Moreno Leads in Second Poll: On the heels of last week’s co/efficient poll that posted businessman Bernie Moreno to a slight Ohio Republican US Senate primary lead (15-14-13% over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan), the new Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey places Moreno in an even better position. The F & L poll (12/3-5; 600 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Mr. Moreno’s lead expanding to 23-19-18% over Messrs. LaRose and Dolan.
Obviously, the Republican nomination is up for grabs and any of these three contenders can still win the March 19th primary. The eventual winner will challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the country’s most important Senate races. New York Redistricting: High Court Orders New Map: The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, on a 4-3 vote ordered that the congressional districts be redrawn for the 2024 election, a move the Democratic plaintiffs sought. The majority agreed with the argument that the court drawn map for the 2022 elections should stand only for that one period since the voters changed the state Constitution in order to empower the Independent Redistricting Commission with map drawing responsibilities.
With the map being sent back to the Commission members, the redistricting process begins again. The high court established a February 28, 2024, deadline for map completion and legislative agreement. Under the constitutional amendment procedure, the legislature must approve the Commission prepared map. The New York state primary is scheduled for June 25th, and the candidate filing deadline will be set for a date in late March. NY-26: Leading Contender Won’t Run: Ten-term New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) announced last month that he will resign in February to accept a position to lead a Buffalo non-profit organization. Replacing Rep. Higgins largely falls to one man, Erie County Democratic Party chairman Jeremy Zellner. Under New York election procedure, the various county party chairmen in a congressional district decide who becomes the party nominee in the event of a vacancy. The chairman from counties with the largest population get more influence because the chair votes are weighted. Since 80% of the NY-26 constituency lies in Erie County and only 20% in Niagara County, the Erie County chairman, i.e., Mr. Zellner, will effectively appoint the next Congressman. Since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18 and President Biden scored a 61-37% victory here in 2020, the eventual Democratic special election nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Higgins. It appeared that Chairman Zellner was ready to nominate Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz (D) for the congressional post, but now such won’t happen. Mr. Poloncarz surprisingly announced that he will not run for Congress. This leaves, for now, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the only announced Democratic candidate. Five-term Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D), however, is also indicating interest in the congressional seat. Mayor Brown is a former New York State Democratic Party chairman and an ex-state Senator. He began his political career as a member of the Buffalo Common Council. Mr. Brown was actually defeated for renomination in 2021 but returned in the general election to win an unprecedented fifth term as a write-in candidate. Once Rep. Higgins resigns in February, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will call a special election to fill the balance of the current term. At that point, Chairman Zellner will make his decision. TX-18: Primary Forced Against Rep. Jackson Lee: Updating the story of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) quickly turning around to file for re-election after losing the Houston Mayor’s race on Saturday, the Congresswoman will now face an active primary campaign for renomination. Former Houston City Councilmember and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards says she will continue with her campaign and challenge the incumbent. Ms. Edwards originally filed in case the 18th District seat would open because of a Jackson Lee victory in the Mayor’s race. Instead, we will see a legitimate primary challenge in the March 5th Super Tuesday election. Three other Democrats also filed in anticipation of an open seat. Therefore, if none of the candidates reach the 50% plateau, a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on May 28th. Rep. Jackson Lee will be favored for re-election, but the Edwards challenge merits attention. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so the Republican primary becomes irrelevant. |
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