CA-29: Rep. Tony Cardenas to Retire: Yesterday, six-term California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. Mr. Cardenas becomes the fifth California House member, and third from Los Angeles County, to voluntarily leave the House at the end of the current Congress.
Democrats will have little trouble holding this heavily Hispanic district (Hispanic population:; 61.1%). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-29 as D+51, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 77.6D – 20.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 28th safest seat in the Democratic Conference. Immediately upon Rep. Cardenas making his announcement, state Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) announced that she will run for the newly open seat. CA-47: Dead Heat General Election Polling: The Global Strategy Group just released the results of a late October internal poll conducted for Democrat Joanna Weiss in California’s open 47th Congressional District. The survey (10/24-30; 500 CA-47 likely general election voters) finds both Ms. Weiss, an Orange County attorney, and state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) embroiled in dead heats with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). Ms. Weiss would nip Mr. Baugh, 43-42%, while the Republican would hold the same edge over Sen. Min. The pollsters tested the respondent’s reaction to Sen. Min being charged with a DWI violation where he registered a blood alcohol level twice the legal amount. A video of the arrest has also been released. The poll finds that 66% of the residents are “deeply concerned” about Sen. Min’s legal situation. His action, however, did not stop the California Democratic Party, at their state convention over the past weekend, from officially endorsing Sen. Min in the congressional race. Mr. Baugh was a general election finalist in the 2022 election, losing to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3% count. With Rep. Porter now running for Senate, this open seat race will be one of the most important in the country toward determining the next House majority. UT-2: Special Election Today: The contest to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) concludes today. Republican Celeste Maloy, Rep. Stewart’s formal legal counsel, and Democratic state Senator Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) are the two main contenders for the seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+23 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks UT-2 as the 81st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. This is a race the Republicans should win comfortably with a victory percentage in the high 50s. Should we see a lesser performance, it would suggest that translating positive polling into actual votes continues to be somewhat elusive. New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements: Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), has already secured four important county party endorsements.
In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements. Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign. SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary: In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53% of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the Congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.
On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Mr. Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary could be one worth watching. Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll: Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (11/14-15; 750 WA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31% support apiece.
The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Messrs. Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Mr. Reichert enjoyed a 46-44% lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union. Louisiana: Runoff Election Results: After electing a new Governor outright in the November 14th election as Gov-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the Secretary of State, Attorney General, and State Treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67% of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.
Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44% of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the Governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the Governor and Lt. Governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion. Utah: Rep. Curtis Reportedly Considering Senate Run: “The drumbeat from Utahns around the state asking me to reconsider my decision last month to stay out of the Senate race has been constant and consistent,” Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) said yesterday. “These voices, getting louder and more organized, are increasingly difficult to ignore.” Originally, Rep. Curtis indicated he would not seek the state’s open US Senate seat now that Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has chosen to retire. Now, apparently, a Curtis entry into the race could be imminent.
Rep. Curtis was elected to the 3rd District House seat in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) who resigned to accept a position in the media. Mr. Curtis has been easily re-elected ever since. Prior to his service in Congress, the Representative was twice elected Mayor of Provo. Seven Republicans have already announced for the Senate, the most prominent of which is former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. AK-AL: Lt. Governor Announces for House: Alaska Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R) late this week announced that she will enter the at-large congressional campaign hoping to unseat incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). Already in the race is 2022 Republican general election finalist Nick Begich III.
Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom’s addition to the race could actually help Rep. Peltola win re-election. Under the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system, four finalists will advance to the general election from the all-party jungle primary. In the general election, voters will then rank their choices from one to four. When Ms. Peltola first won the seat in the 2022 special election, approximately 60% of voters supported a Republican candidate in the all-party primary, and a majority voted Republican in the general election, yet the Ranked Choice system allowed Peltola to win. A similar situation could occur in 2024. In the 2022 regular general election, Mr. Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) split the Republican vote, thus denying any candidate a majority, which led to Ranked Choice taking effect and Ms. Peltola’s victory. In 2024, the split between Mr. Begich and Lt. Governor Dahlstrom, since at least these two and a third person are a lock to qualify for the general election, will probably once again re-elect the state’s Democratic Congresswoman. This situation could change if the proposed ballot proposition to repeal the Ranked Choice Voting system qualifies for a vote and the measure passes. NY-3: Rep. Santos Won’t Seek Re-Election: Embattled New York Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island), understanding that he cannot win re-election considering the ethics and criminal investigations that plague him, announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The move may not be enough for those who want him out of the House now. According to reports covering the House Ethics Committee report about Mr. Santos’ activities, the content is damning to the point that he may now be vulnerable to another budding expulsion resolution. Should Mr. Santos be removed from office, a special election will be held to fill the balance of the term. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) is poised to run along with five other Democrats including former state Senator Anna Kaplan. Two other Democrats recently withdrew from the race and endorsed ex-Rep. Suozzi. Nine Republicans have also announced, but none have previously served in elected office. Republican leaders are trying to recruit state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) but so far he has yet to commit. The 3rd CD holds a D+4 rating according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-3 as the eighth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Clearly, this will likely become the top Democratic conversion opportunity in the country. OH-6: Rep. Johnson Being Recruited as University President: The Youngstown State University Trustees have unanimously voted to offer the institution’s presidency position to US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), but it is far from certain that the Congressman will accept. Mr. Johnson released a public statement acknowledging the offer and indicating that he is uncertain as to what will be his decision. Should he accept and resign the House seat, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) would have to call a special election to fill the balance of the term. Ohio’s 6th District encompasses much of eastern Ohio that hugs both the Pennsylvania and West Virginia borders. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+31. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-6 as the 82nd safest seat in the Republican Conference. New Hampshire: Presidential Primary Finally Scheduled: New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan yesterday announced that the state’s “first-in-the-nation” presidential primary will be scheduled for January 23, 2024. There is little surprise associated with this date. To remain as the first primary state and comply with New Hampshire election law – Iowa still votes earlier (Jan 15), but they feature caucus voting – January 23rd became the state’s only choice.
The Nevada primary is February 6th, and New Hampshire law, which gives the Secretary of State sole authority to schedule and move the election to prevent another domain from jumping to the front, requires the primary to be at least one week before any other state. Thus, January 23rd, in holding with their Tuesday voting tradition, was the Secretary’s only viable option. President Biden will not participate in the New Hampshire primary because the state would not agree to the new Democratic National Committee schedule. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) will be on the Democratic ballot, however, and most of the party’s state leadership is organizing a write-in campaign to support President Biden. New Jersey: State’s First Lady Announces for Senate: Tammy Murphy (D), wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), yesterday officially declared her candidacy to oppose indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Though most believe Sen. Menendez will not seek re-election, there has been no confirmation of such from the Menendez camp.
Ms. Murphy should be regarded as a long shot to win the party nomination. Immediately upon Sen. Menendez’s indictment becoming public, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) announced his challenge to Mr. Menendez, and he has already established a large lead in polling and fundraising. Conversely, Ms. Murphy is a first time political candidate. Arkansas: 2024 Candidate Filing Closes: The Arkansas ballot is now set with the candidate filing deadline passing, and we will see only one contested congressional primary election on Super Tuesday, March 5th. The presidential primary will be held that day, and with no Senate seat on the Arkansas ballot this year, the four congressional seats become the state’s only other federal elections.
In three districts, the general election candidates are now already set. In the eastern 1st District, veteran Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) will run for an eighth term against Iraq War veteran Randy Govens (D). Five-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) will face retired Army Colonel Marcus Jones (D) in the Little Rock anchored 2nd CD. Fourth District incumbent Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) will be tasked with defending his seat against Democratic attorney Risie Howard. The only primary contest among the congressional districts comes in the state’s western 3rd District where state Senator Clint Penzo (R-Tontitown) will oppose seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers). It remains to be seen if this race develops into a major challenge. Republicans will be favored to again retain all four of the Natural State’s congressional districts. VA-5: Rep. Good Challenged for Renomination: Two-term Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), one of the outspoken Freedom Caucus members who was a leader in the move to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, will have a renomination challenge next year. John McGuire III, a state Delegate first elected in 2017 who then won a state Senate seat last week in unopposed fashion, yesterday filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Mr. McGuire, a retired Navy SEAL, ran for Congress once before, losing in the former 7th District’s 2020 Republican nominating convention. State Delegate Nick Freitas, who defeated Mr. McGuire that year, would then lose a close battle to Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Ellen) in the general election. Rep. Good was first elected to the Campbell County Board of Supervisors in 2015. He defeated then-US Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) in a district convention that his key supporters controlled. Assuming Rep. Good is as strong with the local Republican Party as he was during his first election campaign, it would be very difficult for Mr. McGuire to upset him within such a favorable venue. |
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