Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced that the special election to replace resigned Rep. Katie Hill (D-Agua Dulce/Palmdale) will occur concurrently with the state primary on Super Tuesday, March 3rd. If no candidate obtains a majority vote that day, a run-off between the top two finishers is scheduled for May 21st.
Democrats hope to score a majority victory on March 3rd in the person of freshman state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall), but Republicans are fielding former Congressman Steve Knight, who lost to Hill in 2018. Much depends on who else enters the race. Candidates will file for the special election and for the regular term on December 6th. For this congressional district, two elections will occur on 3/3: the special election primary and the regular election jungle primary. Despite early research studies finding a competitive Republican primary for Sen. Thom Tillis, the most recent Fox News Poll (11/10-13; 1,504 NC registered voters; 574 likely Republican primary voters) finds the first term incumbent overwhelming opponent Garland Tucker, 54-11%.
Sen. Tillis leads 56-14% among men and 51-7% with women. The only demographic category where he does not reach majority support is with those under 45 years of age, but his ratio is still a robust 47-10%. Though the North Carolina GOP contest has rarely been surveyed, the result is a major improvement for Tillis when compared to Public Policy Polling’s finding in August (8/19-20; 564 NC likely Republican primary voters) when they gave him only a 38-31% lead over Mr. Tucker. Kentucky Radio sports personality Matt Jones (D), who had been flirting with entering the US Senate race to ultimately face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), has decided not to run. This very likely means that retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot and failed congressional candidate Amy McGrath will become the Democratic nominee.
Though challenged by several Democrats, including state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) and retired Marine Corps officer and ex-newspaper editor Mike Broihier who are the most significant of her primary opponents, McGrath’s overwhelming financial advantage – she has already raised $10.7 million for the race – makes it difficult to see anyone being able to slip past her to win the party nomination. McGrath will receive national attention, and polling is likely to show this race close early, but Sen. McConnell is again the clear favorite. Former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake (D), who left office with poor ratings after the Baltimore riots, announced that she will not enter the special election to replace the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore).
Fifteen Democrats are declared special election candidates including the Congressman’s widow, Maya Rockeymoore Cummings. State Sen. Jill Carter (D-Baltimore), state House Majority Whip Talmadge Branch (D-Baltimore), and former Congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume are the other leading candidates. The winner of the Democratic primary on February 4th will win the special general election scheduled for April 28th. The candidate filing deadline is November 20th. The new Selzer & Company survey for the Des Moines Register (11/8-13; 2,102 IA active registered voter contacts; 500 likely IA Democratic Caucus attenders) released over the weekend finds South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg now building a sizable lead for the upcoming February 3rd vote.
According to Des Moines-based Selzer & Company, commonly viewed as the most accurate Iowa pollster, Mr. Buttigieg has 25% support. His next closest competitor is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 16%, while former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) both closely trail with 15%, apiece. This is the second poll within the week that placed Buttigieg atop the field with over 20% support. A major Republican gubernatorial primary will occur in Utah next year as former Gov. Jon Huntsman, as expected, declared his candidacy for Governor, a position he held from 2005 to his resignation in 2009 when President Obama appointed him US Ambassador to China.
Mr. Huntsman will face Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox in the June 23rd Republican primary election. The eventual GOP nominee will almost assuredly replace Gov. Gary Herbert (R), who has already endorsed Mr. Cox and chose not to seek a fourth term. Mr. Herbert, then Lt. Governor, replaced Mr. Huntsman when the latter man resigned the position to accept the China appointment. Most recently, Mr. Huntsman resigned as President Trump’s Ambassador to Russia. Despite threatening to force further vote counting because the November 5th election result was so close, Gov. Matt Bevin (R conceded defeat yesterday to Attorney General Andy Beshear (D). Through the canvassing process, Mr. Beshear’s 5,190 vote lead from more than 1.4 million ballots cast was sustained, which was an expected conclusion.
Though the election was extremely close, a raw vote margin of greater than 5,000 is rarely overturned. Unless a major machine or counting error occurred, and there is no evidence of such, even a margin of this small size would typically hold through the course of a re-count. Therefore, Governor-Elect Beshear will take office in Kentucky next month. Fox News also surveyed the likely Democratic primary voters in the Tar Heel State of North Carolina during the same period in which they were testing the Nevada electorate. The survey (11/10-13; 669 NC likely Democratic primary voters) posts former Vice President Joe Biden to a significant 37-15-14% advantage consecutively over Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Here, too, Mayor Pete Buttigieg fares poorly, capturing only 6% preference.
In terms of delegate apportionment, we see a similar extrapolated pattern where only Biden, Warren and Sanders would qualify to earn delegates. North Carolina holds 110 first ballot delegates. This polling configuration would approximately yield Mr. Biden 62 delegate votes, while Sens. Warren and Sanders would clinch 25 and 23, respectively. Fox News released their new Nevada Democratic caucus survey (11/10-13; 627 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden holding a significant advantage over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a pattern that appears throughout the South. This data shows Mr. Biden leading his two major opponents, 24-18-18%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, while making strides in Iowa and in some national polls, fails to reach double-digits in Nevada. He posts only 8 percent.
In terms of the delegate count, because the top three candidates are exceeding 15% of the statewide vote, Mr. Biden and Sens. Warren and Sanders would qualify for delegate apportionment. With Nevada having only 36 first ballot delegates, Mr. Biden would claim 14 of them, while Warren and Sanders would each earn eleven delegates apiece. Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) fought off a difficult 2018 Democratic primary challenge against media consultant Marie Newman in a race that was decided by just two percentage points. Ms. Newman is back for a re-match, and yesterday appears to have become stronger. Attorney Abe Newman, another Democratic candidate opposing Rep. Lipinski, yesterday ended his effort and endorsed Ms. Newman.
Another minor candidate, wedding photographer Rush Darwish, remains in the race, but the complete field will become known when candidate filing concludes on December 2nd. At this point, however, it appears we will effectively see a head-to-head battle between Rep. Lipinski and Ms. Newman. The Illinois primary is March 17th. |
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