The Marquette University Law School pollsters released their quarterly survey of the Wisconsin electorate (11/13-17; 340 WI likely Democratic primary voters) and project that former Vice President Joe Biden is expanding his lead in the Badger State. The data shows Mr. Biden pulling 30% support, ahead of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who follow with 17 and 15%, respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is trailing with 13%, but he expands into double digits for the first time in Wisconsin. The others are far back with no one even reaching 4 percent.
Yesterday, Lancaster City Councilwoman Angela Underwood-Jacobs (R) announced that she would not run in the special congressional jungle primary campaign to replace resigned Rep. Katie Hill (D), now scheduled for March 3rd and concurrent with the regular primary election. This means that former Congressman Steve Knight (R-Palmdale) will likely only need to get past former Trump campaign advisor George Papadopolous to be the top Republican.
Democrats, however, think they can win the special election outright as state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) is quickly organizing a formidable campaign. If a candidate receives majority support in the March 3rd special primary, an election period when Democratic turnout will be high because of the presidential contest, that individual will be elected outright to serve the balance of the current term. If no one reaches 50%, a run-off between the top two finishers will occur on May 12th. This week, two Republican candidates dropped their congressional bids, meaning a re-match between Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) and former Rep. Karen Handel (R) is becoming more likely. State Sen. Brandon Beach (R-Alpharetta), who declared his candidacy long before Ms. Handel, announced that he is ending his congressional effort and instead will file for re-election to the state Senate. Yesterday, Merchant Marine veteran Nicole Rodden also dropped out of the GOP primary, following Sen. Beach’s lead.
Ms. Handel’s lone nomination opponent is businesswoman Marjorie Green, who the former Congresswoman is heavily favored to defeat. Karen Handel previously served as Georgia’s Secretary of State before losing the 2010 Governor’s nomination. She rebounded to win the 6th Congressional District in a special election, overcoming more than $36 million in spending for her opponent, but then lost the November election for a full term to Ms. McBath, the woman she hopes to face again next year. The University of Texas at Tyler released the results of their statewide US Senate poll (11/5-14; 1,093 TX registered voters; 427 likely Democratic primary voters) and they find that none of the Democratic candidates even reach double-digits. A majority, 52%, say they are undecided or need more information about the candidates.
The primary ballot test finds retired Army helicopter pilot and failed congressional candidate M.J. Hegar tied with non-profit executive Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez at 9% apiece. State Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) and Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards are right behind with 8% each, and former Congressman and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell records 7% support, meaning the five are virtually deadlocked. This tells us the March 3rd primary will almost assuredly lead to a May 26th run-off election between the top two finishers, regardless of who they may be. The eventual Democratic nominee faces three-term Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the general election. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has been making headlines lately because he has proven his competitiveness within the the Democratic presidential field in Iowa and appears to be gaining steam in New Hampshire. In the rest of the country, Buttigieg-mania has not yet taken hold. According to two new national surveys, Mayor Buttigieg remains in high single digits nationally.
HarrisX (11/16-17; 449 US likely Democratic primary voters) finds Mr. Buttigieg the first choice of only 7% of their small national sample, similar to where he has been throughout most of the campaign. By contrast, former Vice President Joe Biden, the leader in the HarrisX survey, commands 30% preference. The Morning Consult organization (11/11-17; 17,050 likely Democratic primary voters; online) draws a similar conclusion. In their data, Mayor Buttigieg posts 8% while poll leader Biden captures 32%. These polls are significant in the fact that one is a small sample survey (HarrisX) and the other is large (Morning Consult). This tells us that Mr. Buttigieg has not yet become a national candidate. Last week we reported that former Miss America Organization CEO Josh Randle is considering launching a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, but two other prominent Mississippi office holders followed with comments saying they will not run.
State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville), who forced then-Sen. Thad Cochran (R) into a run-off election, and former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr., who advanced into a 2019 run-off election Gov-Elect Tate Reeves, both said yesterday that they will not challenge Sen. Hyde-Smith. Former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy (D) announced last week, however, that he will return for a general election re-match with the new Senator. The University of Texas at Tyler again conducted a Democratic presidential primary poll of the Lone Star State electorate (11/5-14; 427 TX registered voters) and sees former Vice President Joe Biden posting 28% support. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tightly bunched with 19 and 18%, respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg falls back into single digits with an 8% preference factor.
Without ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) in the race, the large Texas delegation (228 first ballot delegates) appears up for grabs. Should states like Texas, California, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio split their delegates among three, or even four, candidates, going to a multi-ballot open convention becomes inevitable. If this UT Tyler survey were the final vote, Biden would receive approximately 98 delegates, Warren 67, and Sanders 63. A candidate must receive 15% in the at-large vote or individual congressional districts to qualify for delegate apportionment. International pollster YouGov conducted simultaneous surveys in the first four voting states and finds former Vice President Joe Biden having trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire but doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. All of the surveys were conducted between Nov 6-13, with sampling sizes ranging from 570 to 877 likely Democratic voters.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied with just 22% apiece. Following in a virtual three-way tie is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 19%. Mr. Biden is significantly behind Sen. Warren in New Hampshire (31-22%), while Sen. Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg record 20 and 16%, respectively. Conversely, Mr. Biden opens up a lead in Nevada, 33-23-21-9%, over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, where, in South Carolina, the former Vice President is staked to a wide 45-17-15-8% advantage over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. The question that can’t yet be answered is whether Mr. Biden could withstand losing the first two nominating events without weakening his vote base in Nevada and South Carolina. The University of North Florida pollsters also tested the Palmetto State Democratic electorate (11/5-13; 436 SC likely Democratic primary voters) and found similar results to the YouGov data. UNF sees former Vice President Joe Biden also holding a strong lead with 36% preference. Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) follow with 10% apiece. Here, billionaire Tom Steyer places fourth with 8%, as Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg trail with 4 and 3%, respectively.
Mr. Biden has consistently enjoyed strong leads in South Carolina, which becomes even more important for him if he falls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. This bridge state to Super Tuesday – South Carolina votes three days prior – becomes critical for the candidates who do not do well in the first two, or even three, nominating events. Defying what is usually a poor trend in run-offs for incumbent Southern politicians forced into a secondary election, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) recorded a 51.3% victory Saturday night to win a second term over GOP developer Eddie Rispone. Though polling correctly showed a tight race, the latest surveys suggested that the trend might be favoring a Rispone upset. The Governor’s superior organization was able to capitalize on his strength in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, while keeping Rispone’s margin down in some of the key Republican strongholds.
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