Harper Polling reported the results of their Oct 15-17 survey of 500 likely Tar Heel State voters and confirm what previously published polls have indicated. That is, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) begins the race against presumed Republican nominee Dan Forest, the state’s Republican Lt. Governor, with a definitive advantage. According to HP, Gov. Cooper holds a 46-36% ballot test lead for the 2020 statewide campaign.
Meredith College also tested the North Carolina electorate. Their poll (9/29-10/7; 996 NC registered voters) finds Cooper leading with a similar but slightly better 46-33% margin. The new Civiqs/Iowa State University survey (10/18-22; 598 IA likely Democratic primary voters) finds a much different Hawkeye State standing than in previous polling. Here, Civiqs sees Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posting 28%, now followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who records 20% preference. In third position is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 18%, and finally former Vice President Joe Biden attracting a cycle-low 12% support. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who must do well in Iowa to keep her campaign alive, still manages only 4% of the proposed vote.
Since this poll is producing much different numbers than any other available data, the question must be asked whether Civiqs is setting a new trend or releasing an outlier. Monmouth University surveyed the South Carolina Democratic electorate (10/16-21; 402 SC likely Democratic primary voters) and found a familiar pattern. Continuing to demonstrate southern dominance, former Vice President Joe Biden posts a 33-16-12-6-4-3% major advantage over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kamala Harris (D-CA), billionaire Tom Steyer, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, respectively. The Biden standing at this level has been consistent for months.
Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown), in a video message yesterday, announced that he is exiting the presidential race. After not qualifying for the presidential forums beyond the second debate, it clearly became a matter of time before he and several others in a similar situation fold their political tents.
He joins Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) as candidates who have left the race. A total of 15 Democratic presidential candidates remain active, but several others are soon expected to follow Rep. Ryan’s path. The Congressman says he will seek re-election to the House next year. It remains to be seen if his national foray results in him drawing stronger opposition than in the past few election cycles. The Wisconsin GOP appears to be coalescing around state Sen. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) to replace resigned US Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) in the upcoming February 18th partisan primary. Sen. Tiffany’s most significant opponent is Afghanistan War veteran Jason Church, who lost both legs in battle and has been an aide to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). Both former Gov. Scott Walker and Mr. Duffy are now headlining a fundraising event for Sen. Tiffany.
The seat should remain in Republican hands, but Democrats will file at least two candidates: Wausau School Board member Tricia Zunker and businessman and former congressional and state House candidate Lawrence Dale. Retired Air Force Major General Tom Treacy, who was a rather late entry into the Maine Democratic Senate primary, has already ended his campaign. Citing an inability to compete financially with early Democratic leader Sara Gideon, the Speaker of the state House of Representatives, Gen. Treacy has formally withdrawn from the race.
Ms. Gideon has been one of the most successful US Senate challenger fundraisers in this election cycle. According to her 3rd Quarter financial disclosure report, she has raised $4.26 million for the election cycle, and held $2.76 million in her campaign account on September 30th. The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) who has raised over $8.5 million for the cycle and had $7.1 million cash-on-hand at the end of the reporting period. Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI), who served one term as a member of the Michigan US House delegation before he was defeated for re-nomination, may return to challenge freshman Rep. Haley Stevens (R-Rochester Hills/Livonia) according to published reports. Mr. Bentivolio has also attempted to regain the seat he lost in 2014 in both 2016 and 2018. In 2016, Bentivolio ran in the general election as an Independent, securing only 4.4% of the vote. In 2018, he entered the Republican primary and finished fifth of five candidates with only 11% of the vote.
Though Rep. Stevens is a freshman in a district that has routinely elected Republicans, little in the way of a GOP challenge is brewing. The strong potential Republican candidates, wary of Michigan heading toward losing another seat in 2020 reapportionment, are more likely to mount a strong challenge in 2022 when the new district lines are set. Yesterday, Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky (D) announced that he would run for Governor next year. Mr. Volinsky achieved notoriety in New Hampshire when, as a trial lawyer, he won a state Supreme Court case that changed the state’s education funding formula. He then ran for and won a seat on the state’s Executive Council, a unique five-member district elected panel that has check and balances power over the Governor.
One of the Council’s duties is to approve gubernatorial appointments. Should Volinksy win the Democratic nomination, and he opposes state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) in the September 8, 2020 primary, he and Gov. Chris Sununu (R) would undoubtedly raise the bitter issue of the Democratic-controlled Executive Council rejecting the latter man’s appointment for Chief Justice of the New Hampshire Supreme Court. New Hampshire, one of two states that mandates only a two-year term for its Governor, will see incumbent Sununu running for his third term even though he will be in office only four years. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released their new survey of the Mississippi Governor’s election as the candidates enter the stretch drive toward the November 5th election day. The poll (10/17-19; 625 MS registered voters) finds Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) holding only a slight edge over Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood, 46-43%. The survey segments largely break as one would expect with Reeves doing well with Republicans, men, voters over 50, and whites, while Hood has the advantage with Democrats, women, voters under 50, and blacks.
The Independent category is what stands out, however. Even though this segment gives President Trump a positive job approval (52:41%) and do not favor impeachment and removal from office (48:41%), Mr. Reeves trails. The M-D data finds Mr. Hood leading 45-38% among Independents, which is clearly the polling segment that is making the statewide race close. Additionally, under Mississippi election law, a gubernatorial candidate must not only win a majority of the popular vote, he or she must also carry a majority of state House of Representatives’ districts (62 of the 122 seats). If neither of these qualifications are met, the House members will then vote to elect the Governor. The Republicans have a 74-44 advantage over Democrats. There are also two Independents and two vacancies in the House. Veteran Indiana Rep. Peter Visclosky (D-Gary), who was first elected in 1984 and is now chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, may draw his first serious challenge in more than a decade. Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott (D) is reportedly making moves to launch a challenge against Mr. Visclosky for the May 5th Democratic primary. This is a developing story. More than 30 Democratic members nationally appear to be facing credible nomination opponents.
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