In accordance with Maryland election law that requires the Governor to set the special election schedule within ten days of a vacancy occurring in the US House delegation, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced yesterday the voting schedule to replace the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore).
The candidate filing deadline in the state’s 7th Congressional District will be Nov. 20th. The partisan primary elections are scheduled for February 4th, while the special general is placed concurrently with the regular Maryland presidential and statewide primary election on April 28th. The key election will be the Democratic primary. That contest will assuredly determine Mr. Cummings’ successor in what is a safely Democratic seat. Ex-US Rep. Steve Knight (R), who lost his seat last year to Rep. Katie Hill (D-Agua Dulce/Palmdale), says he is “more than considering” running for his former position in a special election and is planning to make an announcement in the next few days. Democrats look to be already coalescing behind freshman state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (R-Newhall/Santa Clarita).
Several other Republicans could be potential contenders including former Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, state Sen. Scott Wilk (R-Santa Clarita), and ex-state Assemblyman Dante Acosta, who lost his seat to Ms. Smith in the last election, among others. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will schedule the special election when Rep. Hill officially resigns. The North Carolina congressional Democrats won a redistricting ruling yesterday from a state three-judge panel that could result in the Tar Heel State lines being re-drawn for the third time this decade. The changes could result in significant gains for Democratic candidates in the next election. It remains to be seen if the Republicans attempt to fight this latest ruling in the ongoing saga over this congressional map. This is a developing story.
Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), back running for re-election since his presidential effort failed to become credible, now faces at least four Democrats in the state’s September 15th primary election. This weekend, communications consultant Angus McQuilken announced his candidacy. He joins Salem City Councilwoman Lisa Peterson, businessman Nathaniel Mulcahy, and non-profit executive Jamie Zahlaway Belsito in the primary campaign.
The large number of candidates likely ensures that Rep. Moulton will win re-nomination because he can do so with just a plurality of the vote. Ms. Peterson was rated as the strongest potential challenger, but reports raising only $37,000 for the cycle according to her September 30th filing. Succumbing to pressure over alleged inappropriate sexual affairs with staff members on her congressional staff and campaign, along with new allegations suggesting she arranged for jobs for her now estranged husband in her former position as a non-profit organization executive director, freshman Rep. Katie Hill (D-Agua Dulce/Palmdale) will resign her seat by the end of this week. The 25th District was routinely held by Republicans until Ms. Hill unseated Rep. Steve Knight (R) last November. A special election will be held to finish the balance of the current term.
In an expected move, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) announced over the weekend that she will not seek another term in the House. Her retirement statement indicated she wants to fully concentrate on her presidential run. Early polling suggested that her running for President was not a particularly positive move with her constituents as more than 60% say they wanted to see her withdraw from the national campaign. Additionally, when paired in polling with leading primary opponent Kai Kahele, a Hilo area state Senator, Ms. Gabbard’s margins were not particularly impressive.
For his part, Sen. Kahele indicated he will continue his congressional run and now looks to become the early favorite to capture the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to election in this safe Democratic seat. Mr. Kahele has raised just over $500,000 for the race, with about $371,000 remaining in his campaign account. Candidate filing is not until June 2nd for the August 8th primary, so much time remains for other Democrats to enter the race. If Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is to continue the Republican win streak for Mississippi gubernatorial campaigns he will have to get passed a tough Democratic opponent. A new Survey Monkey online poll (10/8-22; 1,002 MS registered voters) again finds a close margin between Mr. Reeves and Attorney General Jim Hood (D). The Survey Monkey data finds Reeves leading Hood, a four-time statewide winner, 42-39%. This result is relatively consistent with other recent polls and suggests a tight finish on November 5th.
Republican polling firm McLaughlin & Associates conducted a small-sample national Democratic presidential primary survey (10/17-22; 468 US likely Democratic primary voters) and arrives at a conclusion that we haven’t seen in months. According to McLaughlin, former Vice President Joe Biden claims first position with 28%, a common result when compared with the plethora of presidential primary polls, but that is where the similar results end.
Surprisingly, in second place is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (18%) slightly ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren who records 16% support. The error factor in this poll is high because the 468 national sample size is very low. Most surveys are showing Mr. Biden leading but Sen. Warren’s position is uniformly better than found in this particular survey. The Democratic National Committee leadership announced another change in the qualification requirements for the November and December presidential primary debates, once again raising the figurative bar to participate. In an effort to thin the field, the party leadership has again increased the polling requirement. At this time, the fundraising qualification component remains constant.
Now, candidates will be required to reach the 4% threshold in four designated polls or hit the 6% plateau in two of the sanctioned early state (IA, NH, NV, SC) surveys. Right now, only former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg would earn a debate podium. The next candidate forum will be held on November 20th from Atlanta. Following will be the Los Angeles event on December 19th. Therefore, the other candidates still have time to qualify. Montana State University-Billings’ Political Science Department leaders conducted a poll of the Big Sky Country and included a small sampling segment for Wyoming. The poll was conducted during the Oct 7-12 period, and resumed on 10/14 and 16. The total sample, however, was only 111 individuals in the Equality State, which means the study should be considered a single night track.
Since Wyoming voters are not routinely polled, any data gives us at least a glimpse into how the race may unfold particularly if one candidate enjoys a large lead. Such is the case here, as Montana State finds at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) standing strong in the Republican primary against former US Representative and declared candidate Cynthia Lummis. MSU sees a 37-17% spread in Ms. Cheney’s favor, well beyond even a large polling margin of error, which of course, is present in this poll. Ms. Cheney has not announced her intentions regarding the Senate race, but political insiders expect her to declare after the first of the year. Sen. Mike Enzi (R) is retiring, thus creating the open seat. |
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