Debate: RNC Qualifies Eight Participants: With former President Donald Trump continuing to say he won’t attend the first Republican primary date scheduled for Wednesday in Milwaukee, the Republican National Committee last night released the results of those who have qualified and will participate.
In alphabetical order, the political combatants are: Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and US Senator Tim Scott (R-SC). Iowa: Selzer & Company Releases Survey: The Hawkeye State’s proven most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company, released their pre-debate poll in partnership with NBC News and the Des Moines Register newspaper. This research study provides some needed good news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his 66% positive rating is the best of any presidential candidate, although only one percentage point better than former President Donald Trump. Mr. Trump still leads the first choice ballot test, however, with 42-19-9-6-6% split over Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. He tops Gov. DeSantis by only two points when first, second, and “considering” categories are added and assigned an aggregate point value. The Iowa Republican Caucus is scheduled for January 15, 2024. New Hampshire: DeSantis Drops to Fourth: The Granite State Echelon Insights data (8/15-17; 800 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees former President Donald Trump leading the pack of candidates with a rathe low support factor of 34%. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was second with 14%, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy follows in third position at 11% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts a disappointing 9%. It is likely the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for January 23rd, eight days after the Iowa Caucus and 11 days before the South Carolina Democratic primary. The South Carolina Republicans will vote on February 24th, followed by the Michigan primary three days later. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, 2024. AZ-3: Laura Pastor (D) Withdraws: Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), whose late father, Ed Pastor (D), represented Phoenix in the US House for 12 terms, announced that she is withdrawing from the open seat race to replace present incumbent Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Ms. Pastor says her withdrawal is due to a non-life threatening health issue, but one serious enough to force her from the campaign trail.
With Congressman Gallego running for Senate, the Democratic primary will determine the 3rd District’s next Representative. At this point, four Democrats have announced for the seat including Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-3, which is wholly contained within Maricopa County, as D+44. The Arizona primary is late, scheduled for August 6, 2024, so much can happen to change the race between now and the April 8, 2024, candidate filing deadline. GA-13: Rep. David Scott Draws Dem Primary Challenger: Veteran Georgia US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) surprised many by recently announcing he would run for a 12th term. Now, he has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. East Point Utility Board chairman Mark Herring did not attack Rep. Scott in his announcement address, only saying he is running to make a “positive difference.” Others are expected to join, thus creating a multi-candidate Democratic primary. GA-13 is another district where winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+52. Rep. Scott faced three Democrats in the 2022 congressional primary, winning with 66% of the vote. In 2020, however, the outcome was much tighter as he avoided a runoff with just 52.9%, again opposite three opponents. Vivek Ramaswamy: Fourth Poll Sees Ramaswamy Moving to Top Tier: Late last week we reported on three separate Republican primary surveys that placed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling and crossing the double digit threshold in each. Now, Emerson College arrives at a similar conclusion to those of Fox News, CBS News, and RMG Research.
Their poll (8/16-17; 1,000 US registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), surveying the self-identified Republicans, shows former President Donald Trump again topping the field with 56%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Mr. Ramaswamy each post 10% support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Mr. Ramaswamy has gained eight. Michigan: New Poll; Similar Close Result: Regular Michigan media pollster EPIC-MRA went into the field to test a potential open Michigan Senate general election between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former seven-term US Congressman Mike Rogers (R). The poll (8/6-11; 600 MI likely voters; live interview) sees Rep. Slotkin leading Mr. Rogers, 42-37%, which is similar to Emerson College’s Michigan poll (8/1-2; 1,121 MI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found a 44-38% ballot test between the pair.
Both candidates are relatively unfamiliar to the statewide respondent sample. A total of 54% said they did not recognize Rep. Slotkin, and 72% responded in the same way when asked about Mr. Rogers. The latter man left office at the beginning of 2015. Ms. Slotkin was first elected to the House in 2018. MN-5: Rep. Omar Draws Dem Primary Challenge: Attorney and non-profit organization founder Sarah Gad (D), who overcame opioid addiction to attend law school and pass the bar, becomes the first individual to enter the 2024 Minnesota Democratic primary against controversial three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).
In 2022, Rep. Omar found herself in a very tight primary campaign, outlasting former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels by just a 50.3 – 48.2% margin, a difference of 2,466 votes of 114,567 ballots cast. Likely, and possibly including Mr. Samuels, others will enter what should be another competitive Democratic primary race. OH-13: Republican Gilbert Withdraws: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R), who lost the open Akron anchored 13th Congressional District race to now-freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) last November, announced that she will end her abbreviated 2024 rematch campaign and will instead serve as a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. The 13th District, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, is competitive and we can expect Republicans to again put forth a strong challenge effort. Currently in the GOP race are Greg Wheeler, who finished second in the 2022 GOP congressional primary and Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg. Former Ohio Republican Party chair and 2022 US Senate candidate Jane Timken indicates she is considering entering this contest. Vivek Ramaswamy: Major Move in National Polls: Three new national Republican primary surveys find businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into the top tier within the large field of presidential candidates. The Fox News Poll (8/11-14; 1,002 US registered voters; live interview) and the Quinnipiac University national surveys (8/11-14; 1,632 US self-identified registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview) project Mr. Ramaswamy placing third behind former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The RMG Research survey finds Mr. Ramaswamy doing even better. In their latest poll (8/11-14; 1,000 US registered voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Mr. Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13% compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 8 percent. Former President Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60% support figure. Utah: Sen. Romney at 30% in New GOP Poll: A Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted a month ago but released just yesterday (7/7-18; 598 UT registered voters; 301 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Utah Sen. Mitt Romney drawing only 30% support among a respondent sample of his own Republican primary voters.
Despite the low preference number, Sen. Romney leads a group of potential GOP opponents. Closest to him is Attorney General Sean Reyes, an unannounced Senate candidate, who posted 13% support. The two official candidates, state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs posted 5 & 3%, respectively. When asked of the entire sample whether they believe Sen. Romney should run for re-election, 39% answered affirmatively, while 44% replied with a negative response. CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Republican Challenge: Saying he’s “…not interested in becoming a social media celebrity... I’m interested in helping families and helping businesses and helping communities," attorney Jeff Hurd entered Colorado’s 3rd District Republican primary hoping to deny two-term incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) renomination. In 2022, then-state Sen. Don Coram challenged her in the party primary but received only 34% of the Republican vote.
Should Rep. Boebert win renomination, she will again face a difficult general election against Democrat Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating her in the 2022 general election. This, despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating CO-3 as R+15. New Hampshire: Significant Open Primary Polling Leads: Earlier in the week, we covered an Emerson College survey (8/9-11; 837 NH registered voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) that posted former US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) to substantial leads over two strong Democratic contenders. Now, we see the primary numbers from this same poll.
According to Emerson, Ms. Ayotte would not only lead in the general election, but she opens a definitive edge over who will likely be her chief Republican opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The initial ballot test finds Ms. Ayotte leading Mr. Morse, 45-9%. On the Democratic side, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is staked to a strong 52-15% advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after serving what will be four consecutive terms when his tenure expires at the beginning of 2025. Nevada: Schedules Primary: The presidential primary calendar is beginning to take official shape. With the Iowa Republican caucuses scheduled for January 15th, the South Carolina primaries for February 3rd (Democrats) and February 24th (Republicans), and the Michigan primary on for February 27th, Nevada has now secured its dates.
Adhering to the Democratic National Committee recommended timetable, the Nevada primaries are now tabbed for February 6th. The Republican contest, however, will not be part of the delegate allocation formula. The 26 Republican delegates will be assigned based upon the results of the Nevada Republican Caucus, which will be held two days after the primary on February 8th. The combined action suggests that New Hampshire, which has yet to formalize its calendar, will likely move to January 23rd. It is clear that the state will not conform to the Democratic National Committee schedule, which places the New Hampshire primary on February 6th, a day it would share with Nevada. The Granite State leadership wants to maintain its first-in-the-nation primary status, meaning the Secretary of State will ultimately have to move the vote to a date in January, making it the earliest ever New Hampshire primary. North Carolina: No Labels Certified: The North Carolina Board of Elections, on a 4-1 vote, certified the No Labels Party for a 2024 ballot position. The Tar Heel State is the tenth place to recognize No Labels. They join Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah as domains granting the minor party a ballot line. Though the aggregate number of qualified states is so far meager, No Labels can already have a major effect upon the presidential election outcome. Alaska, with their new Ranked Choice Voting system, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Utah are among the small group of swing states that will largely determine the next general election result. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|