IN-1: New GOP Candidate Emerging Against Rep. Mrvan: In 2022, then-freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) fought back a tough challenge from Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green and recorded a 53-47% victory in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7 and Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean dividing 56.5D – 41.0R. Though Rep. Mrvan, an upset winner in the 2020 Democratic primary after veteran Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) retired, was re-elected his victory percentage should be viewed as an under-performance. Thus, he is somewhat vulnerable in 2024.
While Ms. Green may still be thinking about launching a re-match campaign, Lake County Councilman, business owner, and local Republican Party chairman Randy Niemeyer is making plans to enter the race. Though the district is definitively Democratic, and the African American population reaches just under 20% to form a solid base for any Democratic standard bearer, the seat appears to becoming more competitive. Whether the eventual Republican nominee is Ms. Green or Mr. Niemeyer, the IN-1 race is 2024 will merit political attention. NY-18: Ex-Lt. Gov. Nominee Readies Cong Campaign: 2022 Lt. Governor nominee Alison Esposito (R) is reportedly stepping up her efforts to soon declare her congressional candidacy hoping clinch the GOP nomination in order to challenge freshman Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner). Mr. Ryan won the regular 2022 general election, defeating then-Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R) by a tight 49.6 – 48.3% margin. Rep. Ryan was first elected to the House in a special election a few months earlier in the neighboring 19th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-18 as D+3, meaning this seat Orange County anchored CD will again become a political battleground in 2024. Florida Poll: Trump Cruising: The Victory Polling organization surveyed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida’s electorate (8/21-23; 590 FL likely Republican primary voters) and delivered bad news for the host politician. The Victory results find former President Donald Trump holding a commanding Sunshine State lead of 59-23% over Gov. DeSantis with no other candidate even reaching 5% support. It will be curious to see if Gov. DeSantis’ strong debate performance begins to change some voters’ allegiance.
Pennsylvania Poll: Getting Closer: Franklin & Marshall College, a Lancaster, PA institution that regularly polls the Keystone State, released their new small-sample Republican statewide survey (8/9-20; 723 PA registered voters; 297 Republican primary voters; live interview) and the results show a tightening presidential field when compared with most other states. While former President Trump still leads the group, his margin is becoming somewhat smaller. The F&M numbers find him commanding 39% support as compared to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 21%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is third with 9%, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) pulls 6%, and no other exceeds the 5% threshold. RI-1: Lead Change in New Poll: Apparently, the controversy over Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos’ petition signatures has taken a toll on her approval rating. The previous polling leader has slipped to an upside down favorability index of 29:44% positive to negative. A new Blueprint Polling survey (8/15-17; 451 definite and probable RI-1 special election voters), the source of the Matos approval rating data, finds former state Representative and 2018 Lt. Governor candidate Aaron Regunberg now leading the large field of 12 candidates vying for the all-important Democratic primary in this district.
Mr. Regunberg tops former Obama and Biden White House aide Gabe Amo, 28-19%. Lt. Gov. Matos drops to a virtual tie for third place with state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) with 11% apiece. The special primary is scheduled for September 5th. Former Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned in June. Winning the Democratic primary here is tantamount to clinching the November 7th special general. Louisiana: Landry, Wilson Look to Advance: Louisiana voters will choose a new Governor later this year, and a new Faucheux Associates poll conducted for the Advocate online publication, the Urban League of Louisiana, the Public Affairs Research Council of Baton Rouge, and three Louisiana television stations (8/14-19; 800 LA likely voters; live interview) finds Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and former LA Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) developing strong leads to capture the two runoff positions from the upcoming October 14th jungle primary.
Mr. Landry attracts 36% support as compared to Mr. Wilson’s 26%. The two are far ahead of the other five candidates, none of whom even reach 8% support. Should no candidate receive majority support in the October 14th primary, the top two finishers will advance to a November 18th runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. North Carolina: Retiring Judge May Enter Gov Race: North Carolina state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan (D) announced that he will resign his seat 16 months prior to his term expiring. Justice Morgan had already said he would not seek another eight-year term on the high court largely because the state imposed age limit on judges would only allow him to serve only half of the next term. No North Carolina judge may serve past the age of 72. It is now likely that the early resignation means Justice Morgan will enter the Democratic primary for Governor and oppose Attorney General Josh Stein, who so far is unchallenged for the party nomination. A Morgan candidacy would create a seriously contested Democratic primary. Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson is purportedly the leading GOP candidate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term in the 2024 election. Republican Debate: Some Surprises: The GOP candidates sans Donald Trump gathered in Milwaukee last night, debating in the very arena that will host the 2024 Republican National Convention. Post-debate analysis seemed to indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy performed best.
Perhaps the evening’s biggest surprise was who the other candidates attacked and who stood above the fray. Mr. Ramaswamy, moving up in the polls to the point where most Republican ballot tests see him in third place if not second, was the participant the others routinely targeted. The harshest attacks came from former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley about his inexperience in the political arena and lack of foreign affairs knowledge, respectively. While pre-debate predictions suggested that Gov. DeSantis would be under heavy attack, no one launched any verbal assault in his direction. Nevada: Brown Leads in First Primary Poll: Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Duty First Super PAC, an organization supporting candidate Sam Brown (R), released the result of their first Nevada Senate Republican primary survey (Public Opinion Strategies; 8/15-17; 500 NV likely Republican primary voters; live interview). The results find Mr. Brown, an Afghan War veteran, leading former state Assemblyman and frequent candidate Jim Marchant, 33-15%, with five other announced candidates failing to reach even the 3% support plateau.
Mr. Brown, the 2022 US Senate candidate who raised over $4 million for his unsuccessful primary effort against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and now has National Senate Republican Committee chairman Steve Daines’ endorsement, also leads in all segmentation divisions. Most importantly, of the respondents who are familiar with both Messrs. Brown and Marchant, the former leads the latter by a strong 59-21% cut. The Nevada primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Senator Jacky Rosen (D) in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign. CA-22: State Senator Announces: California state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) who, in 2018, was the youngest woman elected to the Senate in state history (30 years old) but was re-elected by only a 13-vote margin last November, announced that she will enter the 22nd District congressional race. Previously, she had filed an exploratory committee.
In the congressional race’s jungle primary, she will face US Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and former state Assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Rudy Salas (D). The latter man, due to his close run against Rep. Valadao last November, looks to be the favorite, but Sen. Hurtado’s district encompasses 96% of the 22nd CD. California is one of two states, Texas being the other, where the state Senate districts are bigger than congressional seats. Rep. Valadao, who represents the second most Democratic seat – D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization – was re-elected to a fifth non-consecutive term in November with a 52-48% victory margin over Mr. Salas. The California primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. The top two finishers will advance to the general election. This district will then host another highly competitive general election. CO-3: New Poll Finds Rep. Boebert Trailing: A Keating Research poll conducted for Democratic challenger Adam Frisch in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District (August dates not published; 801 CO-3 likely voters), often referred to as the “Western Slope” seat, finds US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) trailing her 2022 opponent by a slight 50-48% margin. The previous campaign ended in a surprisingly tight 546-vote margin for the Congresswoman who was first elected in 2020. The ’22 result proved to be the closest House contest in the country. The ballot test tally is not particularly surprising since Mr. Frisch has already spent almost $2.3 million in the current election cycle of the $4.4 million he has raised. Therefore, some expected Frisch’s margin to be greater in early polling. In order to advance into the 2024 general election, Mr. Frisch must first clear the June 25, 2024, Democratic primary where he faces at least four opponents, including Grand Junction City Councilwoman Anna Stout. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-3 as R+15, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.6R - 43.3D. Rasmussen Poll: Without Trump, Ramaswamy Leads: Rasmussen Reports conducted a national survey where likely Republican primary voters were asked who they would choose for President if Donald Trump were not a candidate. The poll (8/19-21; 818 US likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) sees businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into first place just one point ahead (24-23%) of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie tie for third at 7% apiece. All other candidates drew 5% or less support.
If Mr. Trump remains a candidate, he would command 49% support while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop to 11 and 10%, respectively. Florida: Democratic Former Rep Announces for Senate: Former Florida Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell yesterday officially announced that she will seek the Democratic nomination with the eventual goal of opposing Sen. Rick Scott (R) in the 2024 general election. In a related event, state House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell (D-Tampa) said she will not enter the US Senate race, likely meaning the Democrats will coalesce behind Ms. Mucarsel-Powell. Florida political observers expect to see Rep. Driskell enter the open 2026 Governor’s race.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was elected to the Miami-anchored 26th Congressional District in 2018, but current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) denied her a second term two years later. She did not seek a rematch with Mr. Gimenez in 2022. Sen. Scott is favored for re-election, but the Democrats now at least have a candidate who will wage a credible campaign effort. IN-5: Top Republican Departs Race: Saying he recently experienced a “significant health event,” Madison County District Attorney Rodney Cummings (R) announced he is withdrawing from the open 5th District congressional race. Mr. Cummings was expected to be a competitive candidate. At this point, it appears state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) is the leading contender to replace retiring Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville). A long list of individuals are reported to be “thinking” about the race, but for now Rep. Goodrich has established himself with the inside track.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+22, so the Republican primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite for the general election. The Indiana primary is scheduled for May 7, 2024. NV-3: Republicans Score Stronger Candidate: State Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas) announced this week that she will enter the 3rd District US House race in an attempt to replace three-term incumbent Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas). Ms. Kasama joins former state Senator Elizabeth Helgelien and two others, but none of the latter campaigns have generated much early support. Ms. Kasama was first elected to the state Assembly in 2020. She is a past president of the Nevada Realtors Association and can expect strong support coming from the National Association of Realtors. The 3rd District is a politically marginal seat wholly contained within Clark County. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Expect this to become a key battleground national congressional campaign. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|