In 2018, ex-state Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones split the two election contests to replace resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) with the former winning the full term and the latter woman taking the special election. Now, the two battle in a re-match Democratic primary to be settled August 4th.
This time, Ms. Jones lacks for campaign resources, and the incumbent’s overwhelming financial advantage, $2.87 million to $135,000, looks to have put this race away. A new Target Insyght poll (7/20-22; 500 MI-13 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Tlaib leading Ms. Jones, 52-24%, with the incumbent having a 70:16% favorability ratio within her primary voting base. As we get closer to the August 4th primary that will feature nominees being chosen in the important Kansas and Tennessee Senate GOP nomination contests, incumbent Senators are getting involved.
In Kansas, retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), who has been in Congress since the beginning of 1981, endorsed Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) to succeed him. This primary is contentious because Republican institutional money is coming into the state in an attempt to deny losing 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach the party nomination, while Democratic money is trying to pull him over the GOP finish line with ads saying he is “too conservative for Kansas.” Obviously, the latter ploy has the clear goal of driving the most conservative voters toward Kobach. It is clear that national leaders from both parties believe the Democrats have the opportunity of taking the Kansas race in the general election if Mr. Kobach becomes the GOP nominee. Turning to Tennessee, incumbent Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) announced her endorsement of former US Ambassador Bill Hagerty, who President Trump is also supporting, against surging candidate Manny Sethi, a Nashville orthopedic surgeon. On the other hand, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) highlights an independent expenditure PAC ad promoting Dr. Sethi. The two are battling to succeed retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R). Louisiana has the latest developing federal elections because their jungle primary isn’t until Election Day, November 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will advance to a runoff election on December 5th. Until now, little has developed against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) who is seeking a second term this year.
With candidate filing closing this Friday, Sen. Cassidy now has his first significant opponent. Announcing his candidacy is Democratic Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, who is capable of waging a credible statewide campaign. Sen. Cassidy is the prohibitive favorite, but we now have a campaign to watch. A third consecutive poll is confirming that the Republican primary race to succeed retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) is close. Yesterday, a JMC Analytics & Polling (7/18-19; 600 TN likely Republican primary voters) survey was published showing former US Ambassador Bill Hagerty leading Nashville orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi, 36-32%, as we approach the August 6th primary. Two other polls, from the Trafalgar Group and Victory Phones beginning at the end of June, found similar spreads in the three point range. Before, Mr. Hagerty enjoyed substantial leads. The GOP winner becomes a big favorite to claim the seat in November.
The Georgia Democratic Party executive committee, as expected, chose its state chair and Atlanta state Senator Nikema Williams to replace the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta) on the November general election ballot. Under Georgia election law, the political parties have only one business day to replace an incumbent nominee if the individual declines to run for whatever reason. Ms. Williams will now face Republican Angela Stanton-King in the regular general election and becomes the overwhelming favorite to win.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) must now schedule a special election for the seat to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, and it is expected the special general will run concurrently with the regular general election on November 3rd. The special election cycle could feature a primary between now and the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November because the special and regular elections could produce separate winners. Under Georgia law, the Governor has ten days to announce the replacement schedule after an elected position becomes officially vacant. In 2018, Democrat Cindy Axne unseated then-Rep. David Young (R) by a two-point margin, 49-47%. A new Tarrance Group survey (7/7-9; 400 IA-3 likely voters) sees an equally close race again developing this year. According to the Tarrance findings, Mr. Young posts a 44-43% slight edge over Rep. Axne, which is similar to their March survey that found the two candidates locked in a 48-48% tie.
Last week we covered a Public Opinion Strategies survey (7/11-14; 400 PA-1 registered voters) that posted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) to a 53-39% general election lead and questioned the results. The POS poll was not consistent with either the Victoria Research and Consulting survey (6/7-14; 403 PA-1 likely voters) that found Rep. Fitzpatrick and Democratic nominee Christina Finello locked in a tied 46-46% race, or even the Republican primary results that saw the Congressman secure only a 63% victory against an opponent who put forth little campaign effort.
Now, however, a new American Viewpoint poll (7/13-15; 400 PA-1 likely general election voters) confirms the POS result. They see Mr. Fitzpatrick holding a very similar 50-35% advantage in this Philadelphia suburban district that Hillary Clinton carried by two percentage points. A just released Alaska Survey Research firm poll (6/26-7/7; 716 AK registered voters; 663 likely general election voters) counters the recent Public Policy Polling (7/7-8; 1,081 AK voters) data in projecting first-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) ahead of surgeon Al Gross (I/D) 53-40%. This contrasts to the PPP result that found the Senator leading only 39-34%. Alaska is a difficult place to poll, so seeing companion surveys with markedly different results is not particularly unusual for this state’s politics.
Freshman Rep. Steve Watkins’ (R-Topeka) indictment for voter fraud and the bad publicity surrounding it has already taken a toll on him and is making this seat, which has elected only one Democrat since the 1994 election, competitive in the general election. A new Battleground Connect poll (7/16-17; 1,250 KS-2 likely voters via live telephone interview) finds Mr. Watkins badly trailing Topeka Democratic Mayor Michelle De La Isla 37-50%, while State Treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) leads her 42-41%. During this time, Rep. Watkins’ favorability index has dropped to 25:50% favorable to unfavorable, and a very concerning 17:61% among Independents.
Republican Scott Taylor was ousted in 2018 after serving one term in the House and returns for a re-match with freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk). A new Tarrance Group poll (/14-16; 402 VA-2 likely general election voters) rather surprisingly finds the two candidates tied with 48% apiece, however. This is not far from the 51-49% margin that Rep. Luria posted against Mr. Taylor two years ago but considering the course of the race at this point, the ballot test is unexpectedly good for the latter man. Fundraising overwhelmingly favors Rep. Luria, $3.8 million to $815,000 in the latest disclosure filing ending June 30th, but polling numbers such as these should help to elevate Mr. Taylor.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|