After recent polling suggested that Sen. Susan Collins (R) had re-captured the lead in the competitive Maine Senate race, state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), fresh from a big primary win in mid-July, is back on top. This, according to Public Policy Polling in their survey (7/22-23; 561 ME voters) that included negative push questions about employing federal agents to stop the Portland, OR protests. The PPP ballot test found Ms. Gideon leading 47-42%.
The full Democratic commitment to helping former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach win the Republican nomination is now becoming known. Federal financial disclosure reports reveal that over $4.2 million has been spent from the Democratic PACs with the goal of pulling Mr. Kobach, who reported only $136,000 cash on hand through July 15th, across the GOP primary finish line. It is obvious that they believe him to be the weakest Republican their consensus candidate, state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills), could face in November.
Mr. Kobach’s prime opponent, Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), had more than $1 million remaining to spend. Plumbing company Bob Hamilton, who is self-funding his campaign to the degree of $3.7 million, still had just under $1 million in his political account on the pre-primary financial disclosure filing. Gravis Marketing conducted a series of surveys in the Great Lakes Swing states during the July 22-24 period, and came to some interesting conclusions. While President Trump had largely been polling better in Wisconsin when looking at the three regional swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania being the other two, Gravis sees a different cut.
Their results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading Mr. Trump in Wisconsin (6/22; 796 WI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 50-42%, and Michigan (6/22; 754 MI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 51-42%. The Pennsylvania numbers, however, reveal the closer ballot test. Here (6/22-24; 1,006 PA likely voters via interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), Mr. Biden leads only 48-45%. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the 314 Action Fund, an independent expenditure committee supporting Democratic congressional nominee Nancy Goroff, released a study (7/14-15; 1,100 NY-1 voters) that finds three-term Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/Smithtown) leading Ms. Goroff, 47-40%. The 1st District leans Republican but has been known to flip in wave election years.
Spry Strategies, as part of their national survey series, tested the Iowa Senate race as many other pollsters have done previously. According to the Spry data (7/11-16; 701 IA likely general election voters), Sen. Joni Ernst, in a must-win situation for Republicans, continues to slightly trail her Democratic opponent, Des Moines real estate executive Theresa Greenfield (D). The Spry data finds the Greenfield edge to be 45-43%, well within the polling margin of error that has been consistent with all Iowa post-primary surveys.
Before Spry, the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, during the June 23-28 period, found the pair separated by the same two-point spread, 49-47%, again in Ms. Greenfield’s favor. Spry Strategies also tested the Montana electorate (7/11-16; 701 MT likely voters) and produced results consistent with other pollsters. In yet another firewall must-win for Republicans, Sen. Steve Daines (R) is posted to a slight three-point advantage over Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, 47-44%. Within the same polling period, the Civiqs firm, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (7/11-13; 873 MT registered voters) sees Sen. Daines holding a similar 49-47% edge. The slightly earlier Public Policy Polling study (7/9-10) gave Gov. Bullock a 46-44% slim lead.
In what will likely become a national House campaign, Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a survey of Texas’ 21st Congressional District, the seat that contains parts of San Antonio, Austin, and the Texas Hill Country, to determine how the race between freshman Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) and 2014 Texas gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D) is progressing. With no surprise considering the nature of other current polling around the country, we see a toss-up race.
The GHY data finds Rep. Roy holding the slightest of leads, 46-45%, over Ms. Davis. This race will be extremely expensive, as Ms. Davis has already raised $4.4 million while Congressman Roy has attracted $2.6 million. The cash-on-hand figures are closer as Davis has $2.9 million in the bank as compared to Rep. Roy’s $1.7 million. These numbers are only for their personal campaigns and do not consider how much institutional advertising will be present to aid both candidates. Due to well publicized sexually inappropriate texting, Nebraska Democratic US Senate nominee Chris Janicek is being asked by his party leaders to resign from the November ticket. Mr. Janicek is pledging, however, to continue his longshot campaign to unseat Sen. Ben Sasse (R).
The Nebraska Democratic Party is taking their opposition to Mr. Janicek even a step further, however. The leadership, according to state chair Jane Kleeb, has already voted to replace Mr. Janicek with former Senate candidate and mental healthcare therapist Alisha Shelton. The only way to remove Janicek, however, is if he voluntarily steps down since he won the Democratic primary back on May 12th. Regardless of who his eventual opponent may be, Sen. Sasse is headed for an easy re-election. The Congressional Leadership PAC just released a new survey of New Jersey’s 3rd CD, which could become the closest of the competitive Garden State US House campaigns. According to the CLF’s Basswood Research data (7/13-15; 400 NJ-3 likely general election voters), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Bordentown) has only a 45-42% lead over new Republican nominee David Richter, a venture capitalist. This is a race to watch and will become a top national GOP conversion target. In 2018, Mr. Kim unseated then Rep. Tom MacArthur (R), 50-49%.
Democratic nominee Kate Schroder just released her internal campaign poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (6/29-7/2; 605 OH-1 likely general election voters) that finds another competitive contest developing for Cincinnati Congressman Steve Chabot (R). The ballot test finds the Congressman leading, 50-48%. In 2018, he defeated Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval, 51-47%. Mr. Chabot was first elected in 1994 but lost the seat in 2008. He regained it in 2010, and subsequently won four more elections. He remains the favorite for 2020, but we will again see an aggressive campaign in this part of southwest Ohio.
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